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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #874,621
  • May 14, 2026 9:06am May 14, 2026 9:06am
Quoting AK.47
{quote} you're right and I agree with that. You seem very knowledgeable and have been in this game for a very long time. I'm glad that's working out for you well and I wish you nothing but better! Thank you for the response, this may have sparked some research I need to do once the exam season is done.
All the best to you as well
Air force
  • #874,622
  • May 14, 2026 9:06am May 14, 2026 9:06am
Great headline
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  • #874,623
  • May 14, 2026 9:08am May 14, 2026 9:08am
Quoting Bflyfx
usually people who spend time talking quantics and budding people to get 6 followers are just trolls, they don't trade or post anything that is worth reading. I already put the biggest idiots of FF on my ignore list but they won't leave me alone.
Still reads every post of mine. Jenius
Air force
  • #874,624
  • May 14, 2026 9:20am May 14, 2026 9:20am
Quoting AK.47
{quote} you're right and I agree with that. You seem very knowledgeable and have been in this game for a very long time. I'm glad that's working out for you well and I wish you nothing but better! Thank you for the response, this may have sparked some research I need to do once the exam season is done.

before you waste too much of your life messing with math in trading maybe look at these stats

Key Trends and Notable Closures in the Last Decade:

  1. The "Quant Winter" (2018–2020): A significant shakeout occurred during this period, particularly in 2018 and 2019, where only roughly 15% of quant funds beat their benchmarks, leading to widespread closures.
  2. 2020 High-Profile Losses: While the Medallion fund saw massive success, many other quantitative funds suffered severely, with quant equity multi-factor strategies losing 16% on average in 2020. Winton Capital lost nearly 23% and AQR saw significant losses in specific strategies.
  3. Crowded Trades & Recent Drawdowns: The industry has experienced periodic "quant quakes" driven by crowded trades and similar alpha models. Early 2026 has shown renewed pressure, with systematic long-short equity managers experiencing their worst losses since late 2025 (roughly 1% losses in the first 10 days of January).
  4. Individual Fund Closures: Over this period, firms such as Kinneret Group shut down, and major firms like Columbia Threadneedle and Neuberger Berman saw quantitative fund closures, according to Toptal.
  5. Industry Concentration: Despite the churn, the space has become increasingly dominated by major players (e.g., AQR, Two Sigma, RenTec, Man AHL), while smaller funds struggle with performance and investor redemptions. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8]

Factors Contributing to Closures:

 

  1. Crowded Factor Strategies: Many funds relied on the same "Value" factor, which underperformed severely from 2018–2020.
  2. Rising Costs/Technology: High fixed costs for data and technology make it difficult for small shops to compete.
  3. Volatility and Deleveraging: Sudden market shifts (such as in June/July 2025 and January 2026) force funds to unwind positions, leading to losses and shutdowns. [1, 2, 3, 4]

do some google searchs how many quant funds have gone belly up over the past 50 years...you might be surprised


im the opposite of wolfram...price charts are a graphical reflection of human behavior ...there thousands of different ways to trade and most of them can be profitable if the person controlls his emotions...especially greed...everyone wants to hit the homerun and become rich in a week so they dont size their positions relative to their account and get busted multiple times and then quit

the best players in baseball like pete rose and ted williams were base hitters not homerun sluggers


we discussed TA yesterday and ill give just this one example why i think its human nature

in my mind long wicks on candles show graphically the momentum traders that jumped in usually overleveraged get their asses handed to them...its not a stop run or liquidity just morons that couldnt control their emotions and jumped in cause everyone else was doing it

if 95% of traders even quants and mathematicians, lose out than its smart to go opposite them and be contrarian and part of the 5% that survive years of trading by doing the opposite of the majority

math wont help you control ur emotions...computer trading wont either...people in olden days didnt have computers and made fortunes so spend some time learning how they did it and you might last awhile and maybe even make a living doing this

short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #874,625
  • May 14, 2026 9:35am May 14, 2026 9:35am
Quoting birdland
GU in a buying zone {image}

it is still near a buying zone
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trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #874,626
  • May 14, 2026 10:04am May 14, 2026 10:04am
Quoting Zebi
{quote} im the opposite of wolfram...price charts are a graphical reflection of human behavior ...there thousands of different ways to trade and most of them can be profitable if the person controlls his emotions...especially greed...everyone wants to hit the homerun and become rich in a week so they dont size their positions relative to their account and get busted multiple times and then quit the best players in baseball like pete rose and ted williams were base hitters not homerun sluggers we discussed TA yesterday and ill give just this one...
My main point in this discussion is if any tool doesn't provide better estimates than a random guess - what is the value of that tool? Null.

Position sizing is the primary surviving mechanism. +

The quants who lose aren't losing because they used math. They're losing because they overfit, underestimate tail risk or override their own systems

Being contrarian to losers doesn't automatically make you a winner. The 95% lose for different reasons at different times :overleveraging, bad timing, wrong instrument, fee drag... Systematic contrarianism is just another bias

Quote
people in olden days didnt have computers and made fortunes so spend some time learning how they did it and you might last awhile and maybe even make a living doing this
The ones we remember survived, the majority didnt and they also had no computers. Heavy survivorship bias here
Although hey mainly traded stocks, that have deterministic trend or commodities with +/- clear seasonal patterns back then
Air force
  • #874,627
  • May 14, 2026 10:11am May 14, 2026 10:11am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} That being said... candles/drawing fantasies/waves/harmonic insects/etc have zero value if no high probability (75+ or don't even touch it) can be explored through mechanical approach --> useful info extracted Probability of a new low (40+ pips from current) later in May ~85%. Worth taking a trade w/out SL?
+
it was 85% overall and ~100% for May
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Quoting W0lfram
{quote} EU is lagging a bit (different level/structure), I anticipate a new monthly low as well. {image}
+
Air force
  • #874,628
  • May 14, 2026 10:18am May 14, 2026 10:18am
If you are looking for bounce euro at 1.1660 is a good candidate

Don#t let spammers tell you otherwise
I only follow traders with IQ above 160
Challenge Tour All Time Return: 3,889.7%
  • #874,629
  • May 14, 2026 10:46am May 14, 2026 10:46am
H4 about 1.34. Daily 1.30 , daily can change, it can go under. It goes from top 1.38 daily
weekly. Good perspective 1.41 or more.
  • #874,630
  • May 14, 2026 10:48am May 14, 2026 10:48am
Quoting Yngwie
sold 1.3530 sl 1.3560
looking 1.3450
Live trade ~ GBPUSD only. No chart! Follow at your own risk!
  • #874,631
  • May 14, 2026 10:51am May 14, 2026 10:51am
1.3473 should be strong support today

1 deviations and the London open that hold all
this move up.


i believe we will back to 1.3495-1.35 soon.
  • #874,632
  • May 14, 2026 11:07am May 14, 2026 11:07am
I forgot to say h1 set up long, but gu ignores it. 1. 34 think this is heavy support. BTC and eth do this set up on h1, long, gu goes down.
  • #874,633
  • May 14, 2026 11:17am May 14, 2026 11:17am
Quoting Whale
1.3473 should be strong support today 1 deviations and the London open that hold all this move up. i believe we will back to 1.3495-1.35 soon.
drop below.. stopped

not today .
  • #874,634
  • May 14, 2026 11:17am May 14, 2026 11:17am
Quoting GrayHavoc
hey guys I'm kind of new in trading i used to have my own methods of trading which is mix of some FVG & OB in high time frame in last few month was very ok for me and my trades was exactly confirms that i wanted but in late Feb after my country engaged war with USA & Israel charts in my view is kind chucked and cant see confirm for my trades, i sending this for reason that I'm very stuck and don't know what to do and I'm losing my hope in trading but seeing you guys with success trades makes me thing maybe I'm wrong with my methods can anybody give...
your account has to survive this period of uncertainty , choppy consolidation PA. This is a feature of all Financial markets, it is an integral part of trading.
In a few days thing will change and trading will be better.
Manage your losses and wait for better time.
I only follow traders with IQ above 160
Challenge Tour All Time Return: 3,889.7%
  • #874,635
  • May 14, 2026 11:25am May 14, 2026 11:25am
Quoting Yngwie
sold 1.3530 sl 1.3560
Quoting Yngwie
{quote} looking 1.3450
Closed 85p
Live trade ~ GBPUSD only. No chart! Follow at your own risk!
  • #874,636
  • May 14, 2026 11:28am May 14, 2026 11:28am
Long 1.3445
Live trade ~ GBPUSD only. No chart! Follow at your own risk!
  • #874,637
  • May 14, 2026 11:33am May 14, 2026 11:33am
Quoting Yngwie
Long 1.3445
well done
  • #874,638
  • May 14, 2026 11:52am May 14, 2026 11:52am
Long at 1.3340
  • #874,639
  • May 14, 2026 11:57am May 14, 2026 11:57am
A lot of liquidity sitting on GBPUSD, the long move will pay out if u get it right!
  • #874,640
  • Edited 12:14pm May 14, 2026 12:02pm | Edited 12:14pm
Quoting W0lfram
Adding sell positions at 1.364 (Feb POC) And EU at yearly open again..
Quoting W0lfram
[...] Closed 1 for 100+, 1.364x2, 1.362 still holding for longer term {image}
Expected monthly range achieved, closed x1 +200. Another 1 and 1.362 holding for longer
-------
Might be a bounce to ~1.3516 (today and curr.weekly POC) at some point
Air force
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