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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #874,581
  • May 13, 2026 7:13pm May 13, 2026 7:13pm
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Those ict terms are old concepts under a new sauce. e.g what I can recall OB is engulfing candle... What's historical hit-rate of BOS; what usually happens after its occurrence and how long you should wait for expected result? I have backtested 180+ known and custom patterns/sequences - BOS probably among them although I haven't specifically defined it - prognostic power is no different from random entry. I'll try to find formal definition of BOS and show you how I do it {quote} That's essentially what happens if you operate with candles...
well I won't debate your beliefs. If what's working for you works then props to you and keep doing great my friend! I appreciate your insight. I do however think TA and candles aren't gambling not at the slightest. There are plenty of examples where they work, I've back tested over a thousand trades manually. Candles + risk management + having control over your emotions when all mixed together do seem to help me
  • #874,582
  • May 13, 2026 7:14pm May 13, 2026 7:14pm
Quoting Forgediron
{quote} Look at where we are, right on weekly resistance turned support. Market often loves to price in the news before it's released (how does it manage to do it I wonder lol?) {image} {image}
I would just assume that after not just a 4 hourly bearish candle breakout closure + the CPI and PPI yesterday strengthening the dollar; GU should've edged more towards dropping.
  • #874,583
  • May 13, 2026 7:16pm May 13, 2026 7:16pm
Quoting birdland
{quote} why are you not respecting the market? why do you think the market has to respect somebody? because of human rights?...lol
hahaha no no bro that's not what I meant lol. I meant through countless years of data and just general rule of thumb, market does indeed respect Price Action, hence why technical analysis is such a big thing right. I've never seen this level of shitty market range (granted I have to backtest more until covid beginning).
  • #874,584
  • May 13, 2026 7:20pm May 13, 2026 7:20pm
Quoting Zebi
{quote} TA works so dont listen to people that say it doesnt people made fortunes a 100 years ago without computers or indicators so if you want to rely on price action use it the way jesse livermore and richard wyckoff said in their books...you can read them for free online in pdf form instead of relying on ict bullshit... jesse used tape reading which is real price action not the ict definition of not using indicators forex obeys price action and tech analysis albeit slower than stocks and commodities...the problem with forex is that youre trading...
I appreciate your response brother. You're right and trust me I won't let go of my beliefs. I know and understand why the market's in a range and is so choppy but the only thing that baffles me is that I think we're already at rock bottom, but somehow it goes deeper. If there's an hourly candle bullish BOS, literally the next hourly candle that forms is a bearish BOS. Same goes with any TF really in this market.

Another issue is that market just does not respect Higher TF holds Higher Power since mid april. It's like every breakout is a fake one.
  • #874,585
  • Edited 9:08pm May 13, 2026 8:58pm | Edited 9:08pm
Quoting AK.47
{quote} well I won't debate your beliefs. If what's working for you works then props to you and keep doing great my friend! I appreciate your insight. I do however think TA and candles aren't gambling not at the slightest. There are plenty of examples where they work, I've back tested over a thousand trades manually. Candles + risk management + having control over your emotions when all mixed together do seem to help me
Empirical data
Beliefs
Astonishing. Good luck there going forward with questions why the market doesn't 'respect' what already happened

ps. Timeframes are another actual belief. Maybe there was no BOS on 97 minutes TF, that's why no respect?
Air force
  • #874,586
  • May 13, 2026 9:05pm May 13, 2026 9:05pm
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Empirical data Beliefs Astonishing. Good luck there going forward with questions why the market doesn't 'respect' what already happened
I have my beliefs BECAUSE of Empirical data. Technical Analysis does work. Maybe not for you, but it does and as I said, good for you if you're making profit with whatever you are doing. Genuinely.
  • #874,587
  • May 13, 2026 9:13pm May 13, 2026 9:13pm
Quoting azhantahir
{quote} Why should the market respect the PA? Who should respect the market? As a trader, you should watch this film (Wall Street -1987) or (margin Call -2011). You will find the answer.

i guess next month fomc may hike rate
PA
  • #874,588
  • Edited 10:45pm May 13, 2026 9:14pm | Edited 10:45pm
Quoting AK.47
{quote} I have my beliefs BECAUSE of Empirical data. Technical Analysis does work. Maybe not for you, but it does and as I said, good for you if you're making profit with whatever you are doing. Genuinely.
It's not a question of what works for me or whoever. If smth works - it's universal.

The entire discussion began (see how many experts woke up) with the question: "Why doesn't this work?"
Kind of contradictory, no?

Based on your data, in what percentage of cases does BOS work (in your understanding) and why did recent situation on the market cause bewilderment? Have you compared its explanatory power and expected returns with random data?
Yeah, let's forget the code I wrote to count that.

Isn't it this very theory that claims market makers hunt the crowd? I believe it's the most popular one among beginners and how many of 'smart money' traders are there - hundreds of thousands?
Air force
  • #874,589
  • May 13, 2026 10:55pm May 13, 2026 10:55pm
I closed my 1.352 short yesterday -7 pips


now i dont like the rejection of last week low
need to wait
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  • #874,590
  • May 13, 2026 11:01pm May 13, 2026 11:01pm
Tested 3500 and price still in a very strong bull set up ,if may fail to standard but still bull below 3445 and 3380 .care
So watching signal 3553 and 3580 test breaks and if hold
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #874,591
  • May 14, 2026 12:53am May 14, 2026 12:53am
Quoting AK.47
{quote} I would just assume that after not just a 4 hourly bearish candle breakout closure + the CPI and PPI yesterday strengthening the dollar; GU should've edged more towards dropping.
Its a bear trap into support with the news already priced in.
It's actually not uncommon at all, I've seen it many many times in the last 10 years.
I guess it's a decent way to gather liquidity for the smart money.

Lately (last 1-2 years), news has at times, had a more lasting impact on direction, but prior to then, you could almost count on it maybe moving a bit in the expected direction after the News event, then U Turning in the opposite direction. If you draw support/Resistance lines, you will see what price is reacting to.

(By the time the News event comes out, much of it is often already priced in), that's why I only give news a cursory look out of curiosity myself.
Leave Israel alone and Palestine will be free
  • #874,592
  • May 14, 2026 1:27am May 14, 2026 1:27am
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yes yes yes
  • #874,593
  • May 14, 2026 2:32am May 14, 2026 2:32am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} It's not a question of what works for me or whoever. If smth works - it's universal. The entire discussion began (see how many experts woke up) with the question: "Why doesn't this work?" Kind of contradictory, no? Based on your data, in what percentage of cases does BOS work (in your understanding) and why did recent situation on the market cause bewilderment? Have you compared its explanatory power and expected returns with random data? Yeah, let's forget the code I wrote to count that. Isn't it this very theory that claims market makers...
you're right that statement I made was incomplete. It wasn't just a BOS as my confluence I had about 3 others ( liquidity sweep, HTF OB, filling of Liquidity void ) when I combine confluences like this specially at higher time frames with proper risk management I do seem to win. And just to note these aren't the only confluences I go off of. The market was also at a deep discount for a BUY.

But you are right. My statement was indeed contradictory and at that moment ruled by emotions.
  • #874,594
  • May 14, 2026 2:39am May 14, 2026 2:39am
Quoting Forgediron
{quote} Its a bear trap into support with the news already priced in. It's actually not uncommon at all, I've seen it many many times in the last 10 years. I guess it's a decent way to gather liquidity for the smart money. Lately (last 1-2 years), news has at times, had a more lasting impact on direction, but prior to then, you could almost count on it maybe moving a bit in the expected direction after the News event, then U Turning in the opposite direction. If you draw support/Resistance lines, you will see what price is reacting to. (By the time...
I see. I should have prepared myself better. I still have a lot to study, knowledge to gain and years to backtest. Thank you so much for your insight rabbi
  • #874,595
  • May 14, 2026 3:40am May 14, 2026 3:40am
Sells most probably coming in.
  • #874,596
  • May 14, 2026 4:01am May 14, 2026 4:01am
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  • #874,597
  • May 14, 2026 5:10am May 14, 2026 5:10am
Quoting AK.47
{quote} I see. I should have prepared myself better. I still have a lot to study, knowledge to gain and years to backtest. Thank you so much for your insight rabbi
You’re welcome

I’m not a Rabbi or a Jew though, but I understand why you thought I was
Leave Israel alone and Palestine will be free
  • #874,598
  • May 14, 2026 5:47am May 14, 2026 5:47am
Entering short on next 5 min bearish close with sl at 1.35206
  • #874,599
  • May 14, 2026 5:55am May 14, 2026 5:55am
Waiting is virtue
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  • #874,600
  • May 14, 2026 6:00am May 14, 2026 6:00am
Quoting Forgediron
{quote} You’re welcome I’m not a Rabbi or a Jew though, but I understand why you thought I was
nah nah dw Ik you're not a jew gang, I'm just playing along guess we all need the blessings of big nethanyahu
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