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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #874,561
  • May 13, 2026 9:01am May 13, 2026 9:01am
somebody please explain to me how after not just a 4 hourly bearish BOS candle added with insane strengthening of dollar from CPI yesterday and PPI recently today, does not indicate a sell? WHY is market not respecting the PA? I understand the market's fucked by news and that since the last 8-10 weeks but damn what the actual fuck is this dogass market
  • #874,562
  • May 13, 2026 9:08am May 13, 2026 9:08am
Sell
limit
triggered

wanna see 1.3475 area
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  • #874,563
  • May 13, 2026 9:14am May 13, 2026 9:14am
Quoting Whale
Sell limit triggered wanna see 1.3475 area {image}
good setup
  • #874,564
  • May 13, 2026 9:45am May 13, 2026 9:45am
Quoting AK.47
somebody please explain to me how after not just a 4 hourly bearish BOS candle added with insane strengthening of dollar from CPI yesterday and PPI recently today, does not indicate a sell? WHY is market not respecting the PA? I understand the market's fucked by news and that since the last 8-10 weeks but damn what the actual fuck is this dogass market
PA is effect not a cause
BOS (I assume you learned ict?) or whatever 'pattern' is not a signal the market should respond to; it's the record of what already happened... there's nothing to 'respect'
It can't tell you what will happen next. Well, in 50% of cases+ margin of error it will
Wait a little while, maybe what you're expecting will happen later
Air force
  • #874,565
  • May 13, 2026 9:48am May 13, 2026 9:48am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} PA is effect not a cause BOS (I assume you learned ict?) or whatever 'pattern' is not a signal the market should respond to; it's the record of what already happened... there's nothing to 'respect' It can't tell you what will happen next. Well, in 50% of cases+ margin of error it will
yes I did learn ICT but honestly I do believe technical analysis does lead to an edge. Even though I do think you are half right. all those ICT concepts aren't your average pattern, if that were the case everything can be numbed down to a pattern and be no better than a coin flip which would in-turn just leave you with the probabilities of gambling
  • #874,566
  • Edited 10:55am May 13, 2026 10:15am | Edited 10:55am
Quoting AK.47
{quote} yes I did learn ICT but honestly I do believe technical analysis does lead to an edge. Even though I do think you are half right. all those ICT concepts aren't your average pattern, if that were the case everything can be numbed down to a pattern and be no better than a coin flip which would in-turn just leave you with the probabilities of gambling
Those ict terms are old concepts under a new sauce. e.g what I can recall OB is engulfing candle...
What's historical hit-rate of BOS; what usually happens after its occurrence and how long you should wait for expected result?
I have backtested 180+ known and custom patterns/sequences - BOS probably among them although I haven't specifically defined it - prognostic power is no different from random entry.

I'll try to find formal definition of BOS and show you how I do it

Quote
just leave you with the probabilities of gambling
That's essentially what happens if you operate with candles
Air force
  • #874,567
  • May 13, 2026 10:18am May 13, 2026 10:18am
Quoting AK.47
somebody please explain to me how after not just a 4 hourly bearish BOS candle added with insane strengthening of dollar from CPI yesterday and PPI recently today, does not indicate a sell? WHY is market not respecting the PA? I understand the market's fucked by news and that since the last 8-10 weeks but damn what the actual fuck is this dogass market
why are you not respecting the market?

why do you think the market has to respect somebody? because of human rights?...lol
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #874,568
  • May 13, 2026 10:34am May 13, 2026 10:34am
Quoting AK.47
somebody please explain to me how after not just a 4 hourly bearish BOS candle added with insane strengthening of dollar from CPI yesterday and PPI recently today, does not indicate a sell? WHY is market not respecting the PA? I understand the market's fucked by news and that since the last 8-10 weeks but damn what the actual fuck is this dogass market
Look at where we are, right on weekly resistance turned support.

Market often loves to price in the news before it's released (how does it manage to do it I wonder lol?)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Leave Israel alone and Palestine will be free
  • #874,569
  • May 13, 2026 11:11am May 13, 2026 11:11am
Entering sells on next five minute bearish close.
  • #874,570
  • Edited 2:17pm May 13, 2026 11:32am | Edited 2:17pm
Quoting AK.47
somebody please explain to me how after not just a 4 hourly bearish BOS candle added with insane strengthening of dollar from CPI yesterday and PPI recently today, does not indicate a sell? WHY is market not respecting the PA? I understand the market's fucked by news and that since the last 8-10 weeks but damn what the actual fuck is this dogass market
TA works so dont listen to people that say it doesnt

people made fortunes a 100 years ago without computers or indicators so if you want to rely on price action use it the way jesse livermore and richard wyckoff said in their books...you can read them for free online in pdf form instead of relying on ict bullshit... jesse used tape reading which is real price action not the ict definition of not using indicators

forex obeys price action and tech analysis albeit slower than stocks and commodities...the problem with forex is that youre trading a pair so it tends to move slower and range more since theres a tug of war between the pair of currencies since england may release data at a ceryain time and usa release theirs half a day later so price just floats in a range before deciding to move

politics more important in forex trading than data releases...check what happened to the dollar the day the very day almost to the very minute trump was inaugurated to office jan25th 2025 just like now that starmer forgot what got him elected and got his ass handed to him in last weeks elections which means GU gona fall even if they have better data releases than usa


oh and another thing dont use intraday TA to project where price will go to next week...look at the daily GU chart...if we close under .3520 its bearish and GU will be lower if not by this friday will be much lower next week

keep the faith AK

Quoting Zebi
a sideways range since april 15th...thats why i quit trading GU but looks like price will fall back down to 1.32ish sometime in next month or two

i caught my typo...its 3540 instead of 3520
short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #874,571
  • May 13, 2026 11:33am May 13, 2026 11:33am
Quoting Zebi
{quote} TA works so dont listen to people that say it doesnt people made fortunes a 100 years ago without computers or indicators so if you want to rely on price action use it the way jesse livermore and richard wyckoff said in their books...you can read them for free online in pdf form instead of relying on ict bullshit... jesse used tape reading which is real price action not the ict definition of not using indicators forex obeys price action and tech analysis albeit slower than stocks and commodities...the problem with forex is that youre trading...
They just don't work for that idiot!!
I only follow traders with IQ above 160
Challenge Tour All Time Return: 3,546.9%
  • #874,572
  • May 13, 2026 11:34am May 13, 2026 11:34am
Quoting AK.47
somebody please explain to me how after not just a 4 hourly bearish BOS candle added with insane strengthening of dollar from CPI yesterday and PPI recently today, does not indicate a sell? WHY is market not respecting the PA? I understand the market's fucked by news and that since the last 8-10 weeks but damn what the actual fuck is this dogass market
Why should the market respect the PA? Who should respect the market? As a trader, you should watch this film (Wall Street -1987) or (margin Call -2011). You will find the answer.
Look right, we'll see the signs
  • #874,573
  • May 13, 2026 11:47am May 13, 2026 11:47am
Quoting Zebi
{quote} TA works so dont listen to people that say it doesnt people made fortunes a 100 years ago without computers or indicators so if you want to rely on price action use it the way jesse livermore and richard wyckoff said in their books...you can read them for free online in pdf form instead of relying on ict bullshit... jesse used tape reading which is real price action not the ict definition of not using indicators forex obeys price action and tech analysis albeit slower than stocks and commodities...the problem with forex is that youre trading...
yeah, you're a prime example how TA works lol
Air force
  • #874,574
  • May 13, 2026 11:54am May 13, 2026 11:54am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} yeah, you're a prime example how TA works lol

yep...price is down over a 100 pips since i made this statement on sunday LOL

Quoting Zebi
a sideways range since april 15th...thats why i quit trading GU but looks like price will fall back down to 1.32ish sometime in next month or two

ill remind u of it by the end of this month
short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #874,575
  • May 13, 2026 12:02pm May 13, 2026 12:02pm
Quoting cobblecop
Entering sells on next five minute bearish close.
Exited at 1:1. Price has potential to drop further.
  • #874,576
  • Edited 1:23pm May 13, 2026 12:10pm | Edited 1:23pm
Quoting AK.47
{quote} yes I did learn ICT but honestly I do believe technical analysis does lead to an edge. Even though I do think you are half right. all those ICT concepts aren't your average pattern, if that were the case everything can be numbed down to a pattern and be no better than a coin flip which would in-turn just leave you with the probabilities of gambling
So, ok. I found its definition

Hourly data since 2013
e.g. wait 20 hours after entry Maximum Favorable/Adverse Excursion - running PnL
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note a bullish BOS on May 10th
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Compare with any candle (random entries). No difference, no surprises for me
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Regimes don't help much.. I'm not saying it can't be traded - it just doesn't provide any information better than random candle (let alone new to the market or useful to a trader), 50/50
Why is it called 'smart money concepts'? lol


I'm interested if you have your own data re:
Quote
What's historical hit-rate of BOS; what usually happens after its occurrence and how long you should wait for expected result?
Air force
  • #874,577
  • May 13, 2026 12:15pm May 13, 2026 12:15pm
Quoting Zebi
{quote} yep...price is down over a 100 pips since i made this statement on sunday LOL {quote} ill remind u of it by the end of this month
Broken clock shows correct time twice a day

Quote
ill remind u of it by the end of this month
Don't curse my shorts...
Air force
  • #874,578
  • May 13, 2026 12:56pm May 13, 2026 12:56pm
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Immediate bounce from POC (+Apr upper quarter nd yearly 1/2). y'day POC 1.364 {image}
[x]Weekly POC. Price at the annoying levels and near yearly open again - I doubt it will be easy to break w/out major catalyst
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Air force
  • #874,579
  • May 13, 2026 5:53pm May 13, 2026 5:53pm
sold 1.3530 sl 1.3560
Live trade ~ GBPUSD only. No chart! Follow at your own risk!
  • #874,580
  • Edited 6:53pm May 13, 2026 6:37pm | Edited 6:53pm
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} So, ok. I found its definition Hourly data since 2013 e.g. wait 20 hours after entry Maximum Favorable/Adverse Excursion - running PnL{image} note a bullish BOS on May 10th {image} Compare with any candle (random entries). No difference, no surprises for me {image} Regimes don't help much.. I'm not saying it can't be traded - it just doesn't provide any information better than random candle (let alone new to the market or useful to a trader), 50/50 Why is it called 'smart money concepts'? lol I'm interested if you have your own data re:...
That being said... candles/drawing fantasies/waves/harmonic insects/etc have zero value if no high probability (75+ or don't even touch it) can be explored through mechanical approach --> useful info extracted
Probability of a new low (40+ pips from current) later in May ~85%. Worth taking a trade w/out SL?
Air force
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