22.4.2026
Opening position @ 1.3530, we would have liked to gotten closer towards 1.354 but not going to risk missing entry for something that may never happen. Layering more if it starts going and remaining below < 1.34800
This week has been rangebound between 1.34800 <> 1.35400.
We have been scalping in between the Ranges this week without any clear resolution of the end of the war.
We remain of the view that the ceasefire / status quo has been fully priced in at these levels and fat tail risk once again has not been priced in.
On the ground, the IRGC is split between a ceasefire and negotiation (cabinet representing Bagher Ghalibaf, Araghchi etc) vs (Ahmad Vahidi / factions of Qassam Soleimani and Mostafa Khamenei) for a resumption of war
The blockade has been extremely effective and swung the negotiation power to the US... We are of the view the longer the negotiations stall and the more hardships the Iranians face, the more likely the resumption of war to break the impasse and try to swing the negotiations back to the Iranian favour.
We continue to play this range with tight stops but the market is starting to compress for a potential break out. For us, the probability remains greater to the downside barring any substantial changes for a much larger swing play.
From a simple probabilistic view point, 1.363 poses a significant resistance (100 pips up) vs 1.34244 (100 pips down) with 1.33 <> 1.338 being almost a vacuum.
Tonight would be interesting with the ceasefire expiring. Happy hunting.
Opening position @ 1.3530, we would have liked to gotten closer towards 1.354 but not going to risk missing entry for something that may never happen. Layering more if it starts going and remaining below < 1.34800
This week has been rangebound between 1.34800 <> 1.35400.
We have been scalping in between the Ranges this week without any clear resolution of the end of the war.
We remain of the view that the ceasefire / status quo has been fully priced in at these levels and fat tail risk once again has not been priced in.
On the ground, the IRGC is split between a ceasefire and negotiation (cabinet representing Bagher Ghalibaf, Araghchi etc) vs (Ahmad Vahidi / factions of Qassam Soleimani and Mostafa Khamenei) for a resumption of war
The blockade has been extremely effective and swung the negotiation power to the US... We are of the view the longer the negotiations stall and the more hardships the Iranians face, the more likely the resumption of war to break the impasse and try to swing the negotiations back to the Iranian favour.
We continue to play this range with tight stops but the market is starting to compress for a potential break out. For us, the probability remains greater to the downside barring any substantial changes for a much larger swing play.
From a simple probabilistic view point, 1.363 poses a significant resistance (100 pips up) vs 1.34244 (100 pips down) with 1.33 <> 1.338 being almost a vacuum.
Tonight would be interesting with the ceasefire expiring. Happy hunting.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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