Cable Update (GBPUSD)

1. Risk on - The war is ending, ceasefire is given (on the weekend) 18 <> 20th
2. GBP news on QT and managing inflation / rate hikes (2x)
3. USA news on potential QE and rate cutes (3x)

The market gunned for 1.36 on the back of solid news going into Friday but failed just 6 points short suggesting that level is pretty well defended.

Notwithstanding the rest of the other risk on products rallying much harder, GBP was slightly lack lustre, performing almost the same as the much more stable and less volatile EURUSD (Up 1.11% EUR vs 1.14% GBP) implying that the move is running out of momentum.

The moves are getting less and less explosive following the swings through out the months.

1st Pop: 1.3156 <> 1.34806, retrace to 1.338000 <Week 1>
Up 324.6 pips, down 100.6 pips

2nd Pop: 1.33800<> 1.35900 retrace to 1.35164 <Week 2>
Up 210 pips, down 73.6 pips

3rd Pop: 1.35 <> 1.35994 retrace to ? <Week 3>

Up 100 pips, down (Targeting down 118 pips to end that cycle of more down than up)

It's clear that the push further and further up is losing steam unless any new fundamental change. That coupled with a potential fat tail risk of the market rationale would see my probability change tremendously on the skew of going short.

Happy to hold unless high gets taken out.
Adding shorts to bring my avg to 1.35252 later on if necessary if 1.34806 is taken out.