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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #873,921
  • Apr 14, 2026 7:26am Apr 14, 2026 7:26am
Probably about to change direction.

DXY printed low with hammer. if anything divergence to 97.967 corresponding 1.36 before hard bounce till potential 99.xx levels or 1.338 levels.

Adding shorts here.

April historical since 1971 has been the best month for GBPUSD averaging about 0.68% month on month, every month. Statistically that's pretty impressive but May onwards have been the tale of "Sell in May and go away" for Cable.

Let's see
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  • #873,922
  • Apr 14, 2026 7:35am Apr 14, 2026 7:35am
Quoting tnomadtrader
Probably about to change direction. DXY printed low with hammer. if anything divergence to 97.967 corresponding 1.36 before hard bounce till potential 99.xx levels or 1.338 levels. Adding shorts here. April historical since 1971 has been the best month for GBPUSD averaging about 0.68% month on month, every month. Statistically that's pretty impressive but May onwards have been the tale of "Sell in May and go away" for Cable. Let's see {image}
This is a deep research work.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #873,923
  • Apr 14, 2026 8:12am Apr 14, 2026 8:12am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} I trust my martingale approach, I will still add another sell if it touches 1.3620
There's no guarantee that price will reverse at 1.3620, based on current M30 momentum, GU bulls can easily push this to 1.3680. But, as you say, you trust your system.
  • #873,924
  • Apr 14, 2026 8:19am Apr 14, 2026 8:19am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} This is a deep research work.
for whatever reason… your analyses looks like is going against you…till now.. not ment to offend
whatever buy you would have take today till now would been in your favor.
i was also unnable to identify any setup for today…
Hoppefully Luck can change though…
  • #873,925
  • Apr 14, 2026 8:29am Apr 14, 2026 8:29am
Quoting Fishbones
{quote} for whatever reason… your analyses looks like is going against you…till now.. not ment to offend whatever buy you would have take today till now would been in your favor. i was also unnable to identify any setup for today… Hoppefully Luck can change though…
My analysis isn't going against me... I have already done a swing forecast for April in my previous posts and I'm working in accordance to April plan... Which is a projected high of 1.3675 as far as price trades above 1.3330...

Meanwhile, price isn't expected to go in a straight line... Hence I start selling from 1.3522 and added another at 1.3574... 100 pips drawdown doesn't scare me as I can easily add more sell trades all the way to 1.36 area...

I do my trade plan ahead and I don't get caught off guard or take impulsive decision.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #873,926
  • Apr 14, 2026 8:51am Apr 14, 2026 8:51am
We are now at that classic Traffic Light Idle, where the market maker waits for the 1.3610 sell stops to go in, before ramming right thru them.
  • #873,927
  • Apr 14, 2026 9:01am Apr 14, 2026 9:01am
next 3 hours remaining on 4 hourly key.

Divergence set on dxy.
Parabolic run from today's low ended.

Box area of sellers have to hold intraday.
1.35655 has to give or be touch for downtrend to be confirmed for the next wave.

Market still pretty bidded. Don't like the buying pressure still..

3 hours to go till next candle form but has to hold below box area otherwise continue movement upwards.
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  • #873,928
  • Apr 14, 2026 9:16am Apr 14, 2026 9:16am
UJ worth a shot 1:3
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  • #873,929
  • Apr 14, 2026 9:26am Apr 14, 2026 9:26am
crickets...
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  • #873,930
  • Apr 14, 2026 10:29am Apr 14, 2026 10:29am
Quoting Bloodwish
https://youtu.be/QSz_oAn6QYw
Target hit
  • #873,931
  • Apr 14, 2026 11:03am Apr 14, 2026 11:03am
Mark outs.

Market definitely over shot but unsure why. Carry or treasuries dont reflect dump.
Fundies don't make sense either.

Might be CTA repositioning and / or something that we are not seeing.

Gut feel tells me potential intervention before any potential military action within 9 days to buy space / buffer for the next drop.
Mrkt priced in peace atm (we are back to pre-war highs and higher) but fat tail risk of escalation is definitely unpriced.

No longs till repriced / further news on war.
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  • #873,932
  • Apr 14, 2026 11:25am Apr 14, 2026 11:25am
...with less than 35mins to go till it closes, it doesn't look as there will be an 11th consecutive bullish-bodied 4hr candle on my charting, as supply came in @ bottom of the prev 1hr/4hr/dly sw lo zone = pot sbr that starts @ 3590. You never know though, - anything can happen. Would be an extremely rare event on this t/f and pairing if there was.

Speaking of consecutive candles of the same colour, it presently looks like a good chance that today's dly candle will be the 7th consecutive bullish-bodied candle on that t/f, in the run-up from the 3178 swing lo. The chances of an 8th, (based on a sample of 20 instances of 7, going back to year 2015,) are surprisingly high - 45%, but this number drops significantly re the chances of a 9th, based on a similar sample size stretching even further back. Neither number though is the greater probability.

Dly below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #873,933
  • Apr 14, 2026 11:44am Apr 14, 2026 11:44am
Trump signals further Iran talks in Pakistan ‘over next two days’
US President Donald Trump has said a second round of talks with Iran could take place in Pakistan “over the next two days”, according to the New York Post.

More fuel for the GU bulls.
  • #873,934
  • Edited 1:08pm Apr 14, 2026 12:56pm | Edited 1:08pm
Another wedge breakdown. Target 1.35582.

Needs to close below 1.35525 today and / or if possible, attempt for 1.35474. Next 2 hours also going to be important if breakdown / retracement coming.

Buyers stepping in around the 700 levels though. let's see if this is a liquidity grab or a breakdown.
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  • #873,935
  • Apr 14, 2026 1:45pm Apr 14, 2026 1:45pm
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  • #873,936
  • Apr 14, 2026 2:54pm Apr 14, 2026 2:54pm
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yes yes yes
  • #873,937
  • Apr 14, 2026 3:14pm Apr 14, 2026 3:14pm
Quoting tnomadtrader
Mark outs. Market definitely over shot but unsure why. Carry or treasuries dont reflect dump. Fundies don't make sense either. Might be CTA repositioning and / or something that we are not seeing. Gut feel tells me potential intervention before any potential military action within 9 days to buy space / buffer for the next drop. Mrkt priced in peace atm (we are back to pre-war highs and higher) but fat tail risk of escalation is definitely unpriced. No longs till repriced / further news on war. {image}
There are 4 things fueling risk assets right now:

1. The ceasefire between the US and Iran is holding, despite the Hormuz blockade.
2. Iran earned nearly $5bn in oil exports in the past month alone, the longer the blockade goes on, the more they stand to lose, which increase the chances of further talks. The US made it clear that the blockade is indefinite, that adds pressure.
3. Since the blockade was enforced, there are reports of oil tankers leaving the Strait of Hormuz, explaining the slide in Crude OIL.
4. There are now indeed reports that Iran wants to negotiate.
  • #873,938
  • Apr 14, 2026 3:21pm Apr 14, 2026 3:21pm
GU had a 30p drop from the high, and the M15 has the bulls gearing up again. I'm now long GU targeting 1.37
  • #873,939
  • Apr 14, 2026 3:24pm Apr 14, 2026 3:24pm
Long EU, target 1.19
  • #873,940
  • Apr 14, 2026 9:02pm Apr 14, 2026 9:02pm
Gold, long target 5,000.
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