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  • #873,821
  • Apr 11, 2026 7:35am Apr 11, 2026 7:35am
W , D , 4H -- all shows bullish momentum but a retracement is expected i think , as marked in the chart .
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  • #873,822
  • Apr 11, 2026 7:38am Apr 11, 2026 7:38am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} I really applaud your deep research work. Year 2018 had double tops at 1.43 (Jan and April 17) if we are to see such similarities in 2026, could it be a sign of 1.38 under attack again in April? Which will drag the range to 700 pips though unlikely but can't be ruled out. I will buy all through this coming week as far as 1.3330 stays unbroken as I suspect 17th of April may be the day it makes the final high of this year. Fingers crossed.
I appreciate it, George. You know I value your work just as highly.

Early in the year I made some calculations regarding the probability of seeing 1.41 by the end of April. I'll do it for 1.38 and post later today.
The price has real troubles in passing the yearly open, maybe if it can close and hold for few days above..
Air force
  • #873,823
  • Apr 11, 2026 7:58am Apr 11, 2026 7:58am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} I appreciate it, George. You know I value your work just as highly. Early in the year I made some calculations regarding the probability of seeing 1.41 by the end of April. I'll do it for 1.38 and post later today. The price has real troubles in passing the yearly open, maybe if it can close and hold for few days above..
Thanks mate. I'm looking forward to your post.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #873,824
  • Apr 11, 2026 8:25am Apr 11, 2026 8:25am
...so looking @ the last 20 instances there were 5 consecutive bullish-bodied Dly candles on this gbpusd instrument, the probability of a 6th consecutively, (based on this multi-year sample,) is 65%. This as it turns out, (coincidently,) is the same probability of the chance of a 5th as of Thursday's close, when there had been 4 consecutively. Make of this too, what you will. (Ie; the last time we saw 6 was late November last year, from that 3038 swing lo, @ the beginning of the eventual run-up to 3870 - the CYH. Similar circumstances too, in that we had seen a 3010 swing lo, a run-up to 3216, before the downside p/back to said 3038, where the run of 6 consecutive bullish-bodied dly candles began, utitmately making that 3010 a major swing lo zone.)

Anyone gonna trade a 65% winning probability based on a 20 instance multi-year sample?
Trader with an Edge.
  • #873,825
  • Apr 11, 2026 8:45am Apr 11, 2026 8:45am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} Thanks mate. I'm looking forward to your post.
Method A: April range
1.38 is 628 pips, which falls somewhere 35-40%
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Method B: Conditional probability https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post15516852
Depends on reference point and current 'rolling body'.. gives about 22-24% chance end of month, ~11% by end of next week
Air force
  • #873,826
  • Apr 11, 2026 9:43am Apr 11, 2026 9:43am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Method A: April range 1.38 is 628 pips, which falls somewhere 35-40%{image} Method B: Conditional probability https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post15516852 Depends on reference point and current 'rolling body'.. gives about 22-24% chance end of month, ~11% by end of next week
35 - 40% chance is still quite strong.. considering April has a history of bullish and also knowing that February and March Ranges were 300+ pips which could trigger a big range in April.

This is the first month of the second Quarter, which we have to take into serious consideration how April last year did a mammoth 700+ pips .. and tension seem to be dieing down in Iran. Just as Headland referenced consecutive bull run which started November last year from 1.30 all the way to January high of 1.38... April could pick 700 pips rally into one month candle and make a double top at 1.38 as far as price trades above 1.3330.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #873,827
  • Edited 10:42am Apr 11, 2026 10:29am | Edited 10:42am
Quoting Fishbones
{quote} … the only convinced bull was waverick wich was silent(having his own doubts perhaps) when market was 1.318xxx… he also endured a lot of pain if he could hold his 1.34xx buys… asked him on 4th of april if he is still bullish but no response… i bought the low 1.317x but closed +30 pips because it was last friday 4th april and the reaction was kind of slow… not a sharp impulse as expected… and monday london was already too late after 100+ pips up had a couple of 10 pips shorts this week but thats it. also the week closing on 4th was brutal...
Hi Fishbones,
I look at my inbox only once in a while because I seldom get responses on my posts. I completely missed your post and my apologies for that. Yes, I endured a bit of pain but also the prime reason I trade small. What kept me in my bullish stance was the fact that the long term 78.6 fib retrace at 1.31930 was hit and held. We are also trading above my yearly pivot at 1.31123 so retraces are a buying opportunity. Not forgetting the bullish divergence on the Macd daily time frame which is extra confirmation. We have closed the weekly cnadle at an important level after 5 weeks of rejection and long candle wicks. This is bullish in my opinion, and I can see a break above 1.34390 to go bullish in the second quarter of this year.
Once again. I do not enforce my trading Strat on anyone here as most are scalpers. But it could be useful to look at scalps from a higher time frame perspective and narrow down.
All the best,
Cheers.
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Trade to trade another day
  • #873,828
  • Apr 11, 2026 11:37am Apr 11, 2026 11:37am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} I think GU is destined to reach the lower 3300s. It's just a bit slow.
Hi Miti, apologies I was traveling. My long GU and EU kicked in, but I only made 40p on each as I was 15p late. Here's what I have for GU H1, a pivot of 1.3344, which leaves +/-65pips room for the bulls to the upside. I'll go long GU again during Asia, targeting 1.3525, and EU 1.1785.
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  • #873,829
  • Apr 11, 2026 11:48am Apr 11, 2026 11:48am
Quoting navk
{quote} Good to see you after long time. My old friend, how are you?
hi mate all ok had another health scare but fighting fit . Stopped the trading for a while . I had to much going on in life and business. Something had to give way . But I just thought I would look in and see what going on and who is still going . How are you . Multi millionaire yet .?? . As ever Regards E
  • #873,830
  • Edited 3:36pm Apr 11, 2026 12:06pm | Edited 3:36pm
Quoting W0lfram
CPI spiked 0.852% Marked prev. times {image} If anyone else follows Trump's 1st term 'similarities': Ranges: -14.14 (-13.82%), tripple bottom 26.01.18 - ~28.03.18 -14.35 (-13.08%), bottom 27.01.26 *called here - https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post15549022 {image}
If m/m CPI > 0.85%, what's most likely to happen next month:
- all data n=912
- condition has a positive mean shift. n=55
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smth between 0.5 - 1.0?
so, YoY will be ~3.11% (although it can be misleading due to Base Effect and m/m is sensitive to volatility.. even if it drops 1% back -> yoy ~2.95 - 3% = no rate cuts in 2026, imo)
Trump will tweet a lot about it
Air force
  • #873,831
  • Apr 11, 2026 3:27pm Apr 11, 2026 3:27pm
Quoting Headland
...so looking @ the last 20 instances there were 5 consecutive bullish-bodied Dly candles on this gbpusd instrument, the probability of a 6th consecutively, (based on this multi-year sample,) is 65%. This as it turns out, (coincidently,) is the same probability of the chance of a 5th as of Thursday's close, when there had been 4 consecutively. Make of this too, what you will. (Ie; the last time we saw 6 was late November last year, from that 3038 swing lo, @ the beginning of the eventual run-up to 3870 - the CYH. Similar circumstances too, in that...
Tiny sample -> Hot hands fallacy
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https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post15146484
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post15146383
Air force
  • #873,832
  • Apr 11, 2026 5:18pm Apr 11, 2026 5:18pm
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Actual data, 25 019 candles, 30min (i.e Length: n - probability to see n+1 ) Bullish {image} Bearish{image}
Refute or defend: Probability doesn't exist in trading. Statistics do because that's based on history. The problem is the math is the same so people confuse the two. Dice, cards, and roulette all have probability. There is no probability that the next candle will be bullish or bearish. You can say the statistics are against one or the other, but there is no probability.

This is a genuinely interesting philosophical claim that contains a real insight but ultimately overreaches. Here's a careful breakdown:
Where the argument is RIGHT
The underlying intuition is sound. The person is distinguishing between:

  1. Closed systems (dice, cards, roulette) — where all possible outcomes are known and enumerable, the rules never change, and each outcome is mechanically independent
  2. Open systems (markets) — where the outcome space is undefined, rules change, participants react to each other, and new variables emerge constantly

A die has exactly 6 faces. A market has infinite possible "faces" and the faces themselves can multiply mid-roll. That's a legitimate and important distinction.
Markets are also reflexive — Soros's key insight. If enough people believe a pattern has a 70% probability, they trade it, which destroys that probability. A roulette wheel doesn't watch you bet.
Where the argument BREAKS DOWN
The claim conflates ontology with epistemology. The question isn't whether perfect probability exists — it's whether probabilistic reasoning is a useful model for navigating uncertainty.

  1. Knightian uncertainty (unknown unknowns) doesn't mean probability is zero — it means it's estimated under incomplete information, which is true of almost every real-world probability claim
  2. Weather forecasting faces the same open-system problem. Nobody says "there's no probability of rain, only statistics." The 70% chance of rain is a statistical model being applied forward
  3. Bayesian probability is explicitly about degrees of belief under uncertainty — it was never meant to describe closed systems only

The math being "the same" is actually the point, not a confusion. Probability theory is the formal language for reasoning under uncertainty regardless of the domain. The inputs and confidence levels differ — the framework doesn't.
Market edges do exist stochastically. Options pricing (Black-Scholes), Kelly Criterion position sizing, and quantitative strategies all depend on forward-looking probabilistic estimates — and many have worked systematically over time. If there were truly zero probability, these couldn't outperform random.
The Steelmanned Conclusion
The person should have said:
"In trading, probabilities are not objective features of the system — they are subjective, model-dependent estimates with wide uncertainty bands, unlike casino games where they are mathematically fixed. Treating your statistical edge as a hard probability is epistemically dangerous."
That's true and important. Traders who say "this setup has a 68% win rate" and bet accordingly without accounting for regime change, sample size, overfitting, or reflexivity are genuinely confusing statistics for probability.
But the solution isn't to abandon probabilistic thinking — it's to hold it loosely, update constantly, and respect the difference between a model and reality.
Bottom line: The person identified a real danger (overconfident probability claims in trading) but resolved it with an overcorrection. Probability does exist in trading — it just exists as a tool for reasoning, not as a property of the market itself.

Both statistics and probability are crucial, but they serve different purposes in Forex: statistics (historical data analysis) are used to build a trading strategy with an "edge" (backtesting), while probability (risk management/expectancy) is applied to individual trades and overall portfolio management, note users on Reddit. Successful trading requires using statistics to define the setup and probability to manage the risk over a series of trades.

 

  1. Statistics (The "What"): Used for analyzing historical data to determine the probability of a setup occurring and to calculate win rates, such as looking at average price movement or success rates of specific chart patterns.
  2. Probability (The "How Likely"): Used for calculating the "expectancy" of a strategy—the average outcome per trade. It helps in managing risk (e.g., using a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio) so that wins outweigh losses over time.
  3. Best Approach: A hybrid approach is best—using statistics to identify a high-probability "edge" and then applying probability to manage the risk of each trade, says a user on Reddit.
  4. Key Concept: Thinking in probabilities removes emotional pressure, as you realize a single losing trade is just one event in a larger, profitable statistical sample.

My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #873,833
  • Apr 11, 2026 5:19pm Apr 11, 2026 5:19pm
USD and GBP intraday - main theme is the TL break and bounce and a handle on the end of PA in GBP 4h
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  • #873,834
  • Apr 11, 2026 5:37pm Apr 11, 2026 5:37pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Refute or defend: Probability doesn't exist in trading. Statistics do because that's based on history. The problem is the math is the same so people confuse the two. Dice, cards, and roulette all have probability. There is no probability that the next candle will be bullish or bearish. You can say the statistics are against one or the other, but there is no probability. This is a genuinely interesting philosophical claim that contains a real insight but ultimately overreaches. Here's a careful breakdown: Where the argument is RIGHT The underlying...
Continue talking to LLM, I don't respond to AI copy-paste.. I didn't even read what it wrote beyond the first paragraph.
Air force
  • #873,835
  • Apr 11, 2026 8:06pm Apr 11, 2026 8:06pm
News Just In:

US delegation leaves Pakistan without reaching Iran Deal
US Vice President JD Vance says the US delegation has failed to reach an agreement with Iran after 21 hours of negotiations in Pakistan.
In a very short press conference, Vance said Iran had chosen not to accept Washington’s terms.
  • #873,836
  • Apr 11, 2026 9:36pm Apr 11, 2026 9:36pm
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Hi Fishbones, I look at my inbox only once in a while because I seldom get responses on my posts. I completely missed your post and my apologies for that. Yes, I endured a bit of pain but also the prime reason I trade small. What kept me in my bullish stance was the fact that the long term 78.6 fib retrace at 1.31930 was hit and held. We are also trading above my yearly pivot at 1.31123 so retraces are a buying opportunity. Not forgetting the bullish divergence on the Macd daily time frame which is extra confirmation. We have closed the...
thank you for your response.
Much to consider here starting with 0.5 lots strategy…
macd is still out of control factor from my point of view
I still not found a resonable accurately enter strategy on a macd divergence even on 15m timeframe and i eventualy removed it from perspective…
  • #873,837
  • Edited 3:34am Apr 12, 2026 3:00am | Edited 3:34am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Tiny sample -> Hot hands fallacy {image} {image} https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post15146484 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post15146383
I made/make no comment as to the validity of the sample size in my post. Each trader will determine/use their own model/calculation to say whether a sample size used to ascertain probability, is representative, or not.
------------------------

Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Refute or defend: Probability doesn't exist in trading. ...
Hi. If I may interject. Whether your post is AI generated or not, it raises some interesting points, that I have seen many times. Re the difference between so-called open and closed systems that may or may not give rise to probability of the next outcome, and the reflexive nature of markets, (and these are important,) absolute outcomes do still exist, and this too is an important and probably over-riding point, overlooked by your post.

Let us take the example I have been talking about recently. Ie there has been 5 x bullish-bodied consecutive dly candles on Gbpusd, - so what is the probability of a 6th, based on whatsoever historical sample size? Well, there are 4 absolute potential outcomes, and only 4. They are;

a. A bullish-bodied candle
b. A bearish bodied candle
c. A 'neutral' candle where the open is equal to the close, (ie; a true doji.)
d. Trading of this instrument ends forever, (for whatever reason,) and no further closed candles are printed on this t/f.

So, the probability of each potential absolute outcome can be determined, using a whatsoever historical sample size of instances, deemed as representative. NB: the probability of absolute outcome d. is, from what is known to us to this point in time, negligible, but could still be estimated/accommodated.

Yes when we toss a coin (whose outcomes are Heads, Tails or it lands on it's side,) assuming there is no interference, when the coin has been tossed, nothing can be done to change the outcome . When a candle is forming, yes any number of things can happen to affect the outcome, and this obviously increases the higher the t/f, just in terms of time available for this, - but an absolute outcome, listed a. to d. above, will still result, and therefore a probability of each can be determined.

Re the reflexive nature of markets point; I think there is anecdotal evidence to support this in trading, to whatever degree, but the happy corollary is that in effect, the phenomenon, (it it truly exists,) will add to the probability of a winning absolute outcome.

I could go on, but the argument is somewhat academic and superfluous to 'real world' trading.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Speaking of which, I mentioned in a previous post that the wkly candle on this gbpusd pairing closed as a bullish multi-engulf x 6 thrust candle, and again using a 20 instance historical sample, (this one stretching back to year 2020,) of just bullish engulfing candles on this instrument and t/f, in all situations,( so a 'general' probability,) there is an 80% chance that the next wkly candle will close with a bullish-body, and that if you placed your stop @ the bottom of it, you would achieve (ultimately) at least a 1:1 R:R.

EDIT: corrected typos and added.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #873,838
  • Apr 12, 2026 4:28am Apr 12, 2026 4:28am
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  • #873,839
  • Apr 12, 2026 6:58am Apr 12, 2026 6:58am
Inserted Video
  • #873,840
  • Edited 7:32am Apr 12, 2026 7:22am | Edited 7:32am
Trump says US to ‘blockade all ships entering or leaving Hormuz’
Hours after the US-Iran talks in Islamabad failed, US President Donald Trump has warned that United States forces will immediately “begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz”.

“At some point, we will reach an ‘ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT’ basis, but Iran has not allowed that to happen,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. “I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran,” he continued. “No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas.”

There are reports of the presence of US war ships in the region already. From my own assessment on what Trump's plan is here, I have the following. Last week we heard of oil tankers belonging to Iran Allies allowed safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. With this blockade, I believe Trump is sending the message, nobody in, nobody out, effectively making it equally difficult for China, Russia, Indonesia, India and Pakistan to get oil out. Trump made it clear that he has a zero tolerance for tolls being charged for using this critical sea way. Attached, all the U.S Military Assets in the Middle East.


There has been no response from Iran on the latest, needless to say that this situation can escalate very quickly. It looks like Trump has had enough of the Strait of Hormuz saga, and is ready to take military action. Some news agencies are reporting the involvement of other countries, but there's no confirmed reports on who exactly.
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