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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #873,801
  • Apr 10, 2026 3:36am Apr 10, 2026 3:36am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} {image} Thought it might be useful to see High - Open on green days for a comparison. Cheers, Mate!
All stats of that kind (candle shapes, price action, excursion) will be symmetrical around 50% if we try to estimate direction
*slightly shifted due to predominant trend (bearish GU, bullish Gold, ...)
Air force
  • #873,802
  • Apr 10, 2026 4:00am Apr 10, 2026 4:00am
...an upside follow-thru on that 1hr inverted hammer candle that resulted after the 2nd downside b/o of today's AL (that proved false,) to a new CDL - slightly deeper into the prev 1hr sw lo zone = prev supp x 1 =pot supp, @ the 61.8% of the YL-YH up-move, and a 1hr bullish-engulf candle close results.. Obviously no b/o's either way of said YL or YH yet. 1Hr remains rangy as of now. 10/20/40 ema crosses reflective of current market state, across the t/f's.

The 30day adr metric is up to 115pips today!

1hr, then 10/20/40 ema crosses graphic, below.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} All stats of that kind (candle shapes, price action, excursion) will be symmetrical around 50% if we try to estimate direction *slightly shifted due to predominant trend (bearish GU, bullish Gold, ...)
Hi. You make a fair point. Just as an example the 65% stat I give in my post above is general, ie it does not include in it's calculation whether the probability of a 5th consecutive bullish-bodied dly candle is greater if the t/f (and @ least the one above it - the wkly,) is trending up, down, or is rangy, and this will doubtless have an impact on that 'general' 65% number. (Ie presumably higher if it is trending up, less if it is trending down, and probably more around 50% if it is rangy? - I don't know the stats as it is not part of my own Edge.) I also make no attempt to say whether a 20 instance sample is 'representative' on this pairing and t/f.

I know from the stats I upkeep re my own Edge, and the individual repeating set-ups that are it's constituent parts, probability of a winning outcome is both affected by the point above, as well as t/f, (and instrument, - I only trade Gbpusd.) I take both of these points relative to my own Edge, into account where appropriate. You can though find repeating set-ups that have very hi probabilities of winning outcomes.
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #873,803
  • Apr 10, 2026 4:58am Apr 10, 2026 4:58am
Inserted Video
  • #873,804
  • Apr 10, 2026 5:04am Apr 10, 2026 5:04am
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trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #873,805
  • Edited 6:34am Apr 10, 2026 5:48am | Edited 6:34am
I was an avid reader of these two threads and, they are only posted below for reference.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...core-tma-intra?

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...family-members?

I noticed the repeating self-similarity and almost identical in character fractal patterns being made on every time-frame. Thank you, George.
Looking at Cable today, and my attached (sorry for the dodgy lines) - is price repeating the previous shapes and, is the current price roughly where my green arrow is?
I'm still a newbie and any help would be appreciated. Thanks.
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  • #873,806
  • Apr 10, 2026 8:12am Apr 10, 2026 8:12am
Looking at the forecast number for the CPI, you will see that it is outrageously high in order to deliberately weaken the dollar further when the actual result is released.

Well played but I'm selling being Friday... Sold at 1.3460... target 1.3410...

Quoting Scchplendid
I was an avid reader of these two threads and, they are only posted below for reference. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...core-tma-intra? https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...family-members? I noticed the repeating self-similarity and almost identical in character fractal patterns being made on every time-frame. Thank you, George. Looking at Cable today, and my attached (sorry for the dodgy lines) - is price repeating the previous shapes and, is the current price...
There is now a triple resistance at 1.3483 area and it will take an extra move to break it convincingly...

In order to break this resistance, price will need fresh momentum and that means it has to go down to gather fresh momentum to break it convincingly.

The tricky part is when it goes down, will it be to gather fresh buying momentum or the resumption of a downtrend after 5 buying days?

The simple way to know is to watch out for 1.3330, should price trade above 1.3330, it is already giving a clue that 1.36 will be visited, should price trade below 1.3330, it is already giving a clue that 1.30 will be visited.
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Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #873,807
  • Apr 10, 2026 9:09am Apr 10, 2026 9:09am
Waiting for price reaction at the current zone in GU.

Are we breaking out of 1.3484 or Sweep the level for a bounce back ?

If you have the crystal ball, let's see your comment.

For me, weekly target is already completed and waiting to see pullback to the centre before the decision to buy or Sell again...

I am voting for either immediate rejection or sweep and rejection.

Have a nice weekend all friends and buddies.
Market Structure is the King.....
  • #873,808
  • Apr 10, 2026 9:41am Apr 10, 2026 9:41am
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All Buy and Sell trades are closed.

Nice weekend all
Market Structure is the King.....
  • #873,809
  • Apr 10, 2026 9:43am Apr 10, 2026 9:43am
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All trade closed.
Market Structure is the King.....
  • #873,810
  • Apr 10, 2026 9:49am Apr 10, 2026 9:49am
GU: 4H
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Intraday Trading is an Art _ hoda
  • #873,811
  • Apr 10, 2026 1:12pm Apr 10, 2026 1:12pm
Quoting Georginson
Looking at the forecast number for the CPI, you will see that it is outrageously high in order to deliberately weaken the dollar further when the actual result is released. Well played but I'm selling being Friday... Sold at 1.3460... target 1.3410... {quote} There is now a triple resistance at 1.3483 area and it will take an extra move to break it convincingly... In order to break this resistance, price will need fresh momentum and that means it has to go down to gather fresh momentum to break it convincingly. The tricky part is when it goes down,...
i don t think we re gonna see a move down for the next 1h45min till closure…
I hope you are out?..
  • #873,812
  • Apr 10, 2026 1:23pm Apr 10, 2026 1:23pm
Quoting Fishbones
{quote} i don t think we re gonna see a move down for the next 1h45min till closure… I hope you are out?..
I can hold till Monday
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #873,813
  • Apr 10, 2026 4:32pm Apr 10, 2026 4:32pm
Quoting Moty
{image}
omg your still going well done . Hope you’re in the money . Regards E
  • #873,814
  • Apr 10, 2026 4:43pm Apr 10, 2026 4:43pm
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We can see soo clear the 4 hour horizon above . Will the sun appear over to the target areas or does the sun now set off the horizon line . Long time no post . Hope you’re all hanging in there . As ever Regards E
  • #873,815
  • Apr 10, 2026 6:08pm Apr 10, 2026 6:08pm
Quoting elbert3
{image} We can see soo clear the 4 hour horizon above . Will the sun appear over to the target areas or does the sun now set off the horizon line . Long time no post . Hope you’re all hanging in there . As ever Regards E
Good to see you after long time. My old friend, how are you?
Intraday only.
  • #873,816
  • Edited 3:42am Apr 11, 2026 2:25am | Edited 3:42am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} I can hold till Monday
despite your clean market assessment, considerring this week movement wich had been only bullish, the painfull question to all forum memebers which were short biased why we didn t see this up move comming?…

and please don t give me peace argument between usa-iran. That was a wild card.

my only coment on this is that once everybody was looking south.. the MM pushed north with force making us believe is just a spike just to add more sells…

the only convinced bull was waverick wich was silent(having his own doubts perhaps) when market was 1.318xxx… he also endured a lot of pain if he could hold his 1.34xx buys… asked him on 4th of april if he is still bullish but no response…

i bought the low 1.317x but closed +30 pips because it was last friday 4th april and the reaction was kind of slow… not a sharp impulse as expected… and monday london was already too late after 100+ pips up
had a couple of 10 pips shorts this week but thats it.
also the week closing on 4th was brutal red with no options for a buyer to exit on a technical bounce so most of buyers closed friday on loss to avoid weekend risks and this week friday is brutal green with no chance for a seller to exit/recover…

did we actually stood any chance based on technicals?… should this type of situations be treated as a standard or…?!..
  • #873,817
  • Edited 6:15am Apr 11, 2026 5:43am | Edited 6:15am
A very bullish > 13wk awr (149%) multi- engulfing x 6 thrust wkly candle just closed. It's lo @ 3170 (now LWL,) was a 1st test and bounce up from the then prev dly, now minor wkly sw lo zone = prev supp x 1 = pot supp that extends down to the 3159 CML/CYL. This bounce-up of course was aided by/largely a reaction to a specific unscheduled event re the geopolitical environment we are currently in. It's 3284 hi (now LWH,) set a new CMH less than 1 pip above the last one, but price closed the week still above the previous week's 3346 hi, on the 1st upside b/o of it. Overall, The t/f closed the week out rangy, (-bullish now?)

The Dly t/f has now seen 5 consecutive bullish-bodied candle closes, (1st time since November last year,) Friday's included, and the last 2 were so-called inside-candles re Wednesday's big bullish dly candle. The t/f closed the week out rangy-bullish. The 4Hr (like the 1Hr t/f, that more than anything I guess,) is probably in a general uptrend now, although there has not been a 2nd upside b/o of the recent wider 4hr 3483-3218 multi-week range yet, on that t/f.

With Peace talks in Islamabad this w/e, and Trump still exerting maximum pressure on the Iranians, this and other markets remain @ the mercy of geo-political events, and anything can happen. In answer to Fishbones's question in his post above, there are undoubtedly still technical structures and plays to be had, particularly, (but not exclusively,) on the sub 4hr t/f's, I would suggest. The week closes looking more bullish than bearish overall, but this could quickly turn/change. As a further/additional response to Fishbones's question, in the current environment we have to be quick to adapt, so, more than ever we are all best advised to trade what we see - not what we think.

A few technical points of interest; a. 50% of the total 3870 CYH - 3159 CYL is not far above this 3284 LWH/CMH, in a 3 fib cluster than runs 3512-14. b. Price has traveled 83% of the 6mth amr so far this month. c. Price closed the week above Mthly R1.

EDIT: corrected typos.

Wkly, then Dly, below.
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #873,818
  • Edited 8:02am Apr 11, 2026 6:14am | Edited 8:02am
CPI spiked 0.852%
Marked prev. times
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If anyone else follows Trump's 1st term 'similarities':

Ranges:
-14.14 (-13.82%), tripple bottom 26.01.18 - ~28.03.18
-14.35 (-13.08%), bottom 27.01.26 *called here - https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post15549022
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Air force
  • #873,819
  • Edited 7:33am Apr 11, 2026 6:38am | Edited 7:33am
Quoting W0lfram
Existing gaps on ${image} Settlement close used, hence large n{image} {image}
My March gap/Feb POC saga will most likely end soon.
gonna close the set of EU longs, finally and start accumulating short pos both EU, GU
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---bears should fight April's seasonality, which is very strong; stats were posted few times already.
Air force
  • #873,820
  • Apr 11, 2026 9:05am Apr 11, 2026 9:05am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} My March gap/Feb POC saga will most likely end soon. gonna close the set of EU longs, finally and start accumulating short pos both EU, GU {image} {image} ---bears should fight April's seasonality, which is very strong; stats were posted few times already.
I really applaud your deep research work. Year 2018 had double tops at 1.43 (Jan and April 17) if we are to see such similarities in 2026, could it be a sign of 1.38 under attack again in April? Which will drag the range to 700 pips though unlikely but can't be ruled out.

I will buy all through this coming week as far as 1.3330 stays unbroken as I suspect 17th of April may be the day it makes the final high of this year. Fingers crossed.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
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