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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #873,761
  • Apr 9, 2026 5:25am Apr 9, 2026 5:25am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} It's a realistic target but may take two days... Safest target is 1.3300 though
Thank you George.
  • #873,762
  • Apr 9, 2026 5:31am Apr 9, 2026 5:31am
Quoting Guy1969
During Asia I'm running a single trade, long USDCAD, targeting 1.3910.
Closed for 12p, lack of volume.
  • #873,763
  • Apr 9, 2026 5:35am Apr 9, 2026 5:35am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} I studied each bearish daily candle and discovered that none have open to high price of 50 pips or more. This means that if today's candle fail to move at least 45 pips above today's open, then the candle will be bearish today. Also noteworthy that this week already produced 307 pips range and the Maximum range for this week in this year so far is 320 pips, which means 98% of the weekly range is complete and we have just today and tomorrow left to end the week. I expect at least 150 pips retracement from the high of 1.3483 which takes us...
That's an interesting observation. Fundamentally speaking, there is of course some 'red' U.s data later today, and tomorrow, and of course we remain @ the mercy of geo-political events. Re the 13wk awr that I use, (1/4yr,) we are already @ 149% of that, so far this week. I think the move down from 3484 YH started as an innocent enough p/back, and then perhaps became deeper because of the stuff re the breaking of the ceasefire, (quele suprise,!) becoming known? Re your 3333, there's a 3 fib cluster around 3330-32.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
...so, a false 1st upside b/o of the 30minrange, and price pulls back inside it.

30min below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #873,764
  • Apr 9, 2026 6:11am Apr 9, 2026 6:11am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} I studied each bearish daily candle and discovered that none have open to high price of 50 pips or more. This means that if today's candle fail to move at least 45 pips above today's open, then the candle will be bearish today. Also noteworthy that this week already produced 307 pips range and the Maximum range for this week in this year so far is 320 pips, which means 98% of the weekly range is complete and we have just today and tomorrow left to end the week. I expect at least 150 pips retracement from the high of 1.3483 which takes us...
How many candles did you study, Mate?

Cheers!
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #873,765
  • Apr 9, 2026 6:21am Apr 9, 2026 6:21am
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yes yes yes
  • #873,766
  • Apr 9, 2026 6:52am Apr 9, 2026 6:52am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} I studied each bearish daily candle and discovered that none have open to high price of 50 pips or more. This means that if today's candle fail to move at least 45 pips above today's open, then the candle will be bearish today. Also noteworthy that this week already produced 307 pips range and the Maximum range for this week in this year so far is 320 pips, which means 98% of the weekly range is complete and we have just today and tomorrow left to end the week. I expect at least 150 pips retracement from the high of 1.3483 which takes us...
Idk, George, can't agree here..
I found 554 bearish bars with oh > 50 pips and 614 bullish with oh < 50 pips
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Air force
  • #873,767
  • Apr 9, 2026 6:54am Apr 9, 2026 6:54am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Idk, George, can't agree here.. I found 554 bearish bars with oh > 50 pips and 614 bullish with oh < 50 pips {image}
Research limited to year 2026 daily candles.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #873,768
  • Apr 9, 2026 6:59am Apr 9, 2026 6:59am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} Research limited to year 2026 daily candles.
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Air force
  • #873,769
  • Apr 9, 2026 7:00am Apr 9, 2026 7:00am
Quoting Bloodwish
https://youtu.be/8A0QRsTNpf8
Target hit
  • #873,770
  • Apr 9, 2026 7:03am Apr 9, 2026 7:03am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} SL 1.343. I'll target 1/4th of yearly range 1.3333 As it looks like a new episode of Santa Trumpbara will be airing soon
stopped+50

y'day POC
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will sell again
Air force
  • #873,771
  • Apr 9, 2026 7:11am Apr 9, 2026 7:11am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} How many candles did you study, Mate? Cheers!
All year 2026 bearish daily candle wicks

Quoting W0lfram
{quote} stopped+50 y'day POC{image} will sell again
That's the major challenge of swing trade... Price doesn't just go in a straight line.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #873,772
  • Apr 9, 2026 7:12am Apr 9, 2026 7:12am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} GU Bullish divergence still in play from a daily time frame perspective. Buy trade added at 1.32482. Disclaimer: I am not a professional trader and journalize my trading journey from a higher time frame and longer-term perspective. Use in accordance with your own trading style. Green pips, Cheers. {image}
Buy trade at 1.34301.
Cheers.
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Trade to trade another day
  • #873,773
  • Apr 9, 2026 8:42am Apr 9, 2026 8:42am
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yes yes yes
  • #873,774
  • Apr 9, 2026 9:51am Apr 9, 2026 9:51am
Lets see how this plays out, still waiting for lower tf confirmation tho
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  • #873,775
  • Apr 9, 2026 10:08am Apr 9, 2026 10:08am
The MM is keeping the risk short play for tomorrow, I'll short GU, EU and AU for the Asian session, and part of the EU session.
  • #873,776
  • Apr 9, 2026 11:02am Apr 9, 2026 11:02am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} I studied each bearish daily candle and discovered that none have open to high price of 50 pips or more. This means that if today's candle fail to move at least 45 pips above today's open, then the candle will be bearish today. Also noteworthy that this week already produced 307 pips range and the Maximum range for this week in this year so far is 320 pips, which means 98% of the weekly range is complete and we have just today and tomorrow left to end the week. I expect at least 150 pips retracement from the high of 1.3483 which takes us...
It's now 50 pips above today's open and the bulls have secured today's candle... Except if something extraordinary happens for bears to win. So it's a buy at any pullback.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #873,777
  • Apr 9, 2026 11:26am Apr 9, 2026 11:26am
My risk shorts are in place. Let's see what the risk bears has for us.
  • #873,778
  • Apr 9, 2026 11:42am Apr 9, 2026 11:42am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Buy trade at 1.34301. Cheers. {image}
GU has seen 5 weeks over a month off of this area with sharp pullbacks at 1.3490 to 1.35000, but with slightly higher highs and this time around could be bullish intent.
A weekly close above this area will be great for bulls.
Trade well.
Cheers.
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Trade to trade another day
  • #873,779
  • Apr 9, 2026 11:51am Apr 9, 2026 11:51am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} GU has seen 5 weeks over a month off of this area with sharp pullbacks at 1.3490 to 1.35000, but with slightly higher highs and this time around could be bullish intent. A weekly close above this area will be great for bulls. Trade well. Cheers. {image}
Good work Amigo.
seriously, I thought we were going lower this week.
stupid ceasefire

check out 1.36 above on the weekly
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Leave Israel alone and Palestine will be free
  • #873,780
  • Apr 9, 2026 12:13pm Apr 9, 2026 12:13pm
Cable views:

1.342 close after NYK at around 4 pm would open 1.33 for tomorrow ahead of talks to profit take / risk off.
Technically 1.33 was run through way too easily i suspect we might revisit it sometime in April to have a better clarity of the the Price Action in that region.

Good talks = gap back up towards 1.34 for run at highs for the month and test 1.35
Bad talks = gap down towards 1.32 for run towards low and test for 1.30

1.33 imo would be hard to reach and i think 1.334 <> 1.335 would be more palatable. Pretty bearish if it closes at 1.33 or attempts 1.33 tomorrow.

Range for Month of April given volatility 1.30 <> 1.35 with wide swings (30pips on channel / divergence), (50 - 60 pips on news).

Quite obvious that USA is looking for an out in this war but whether Iran allows them out is another thing altogether.

Out of the 10 points. My views

1. An American guarantee of nonaggression with Iran.
-That's easy if the war is over. (easy)

2. Iran maintains control of the Strait of Hormuz.
- The world will push back on this and if it fails and the USA sends boots on the ground under this pretext, it is alot more platable to the rest of the world. (hard)

3. Ending the regional war on all fronts, including against Iran’s ally, Hezbollah, in Lebanon.
- In the event of an end of the war, sure. But Israel will likely push back on this. (easy)

4. Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from all bases and positions in the region.
- The GCC will not allow this given the obvious disparity in firepower and military superiority of the Iranians vs the GCC.. not at least until they have much higher tech and are resupplied adequately. Petrodollars also require GCC to be involved in any and all forms of negotiatons.

5. Reparations to Iran for war damages.
- Hard. If they charge toll on SOH then see point 2.

6. Acceptance of Iran’s right to nuclear enrichment.
- Pretty much impossible. Maybe if USA runs their nuclear reactor for them.

7. Lifting all primary sanctions on Iran.
- Easy.. not really that much an issue

8. Lifting all secondary sanctions on Iran.
-Easy.. also not really that much an issue

9. Termination of all resolutions against Iran by the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
- That's easy if they give up nuclear. See point 6.

10. Termination of all United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran.
- That's easy if they give stop fighting and give up everything else.

So that gives us almost 4 -5 extremely difficult and almost impossible points of reconciliation and here we are, talking about risk on and the end of the war. Absolutely no idea what the rest of the market is thinking and could be CTAs / mechanical pushing but my gut feel is that smart money is accumulating on the short side ... at least those who are not chasing and have positioned extremely well.

Frankly, the only way i think that we can truly go back to normal after this last 40 days / 6 weeks is for either side to surrender or withdraw completely, neither of which looks possible. Which means things will have to get alot worse before it gets better if we are stuck at a detente.

I think that perhaps what Trump really wants is... to go in and take out their infrastructure and force a real regime change at this point (not withstanding), arm the civilians and militas for a civil war whilst getting the allies to counter and patrol the SOH so that they can free up their assets and reposition on cuba / asia pacific.

Just like all committments, forcibly reopening is easy.. maintenance and peacekeeping the SOH is what is going to bog down their military for a long time, something that Trump doesnt have due to the constitution and his age.

However, once again, you have no idea what is up when it comes to Taco Trump. Though technically the charts on the longer TF (Weekly / Monthly / Yearly ) looks devastating for the dollar, fundamentals seems to suggest it would get alot worse (risk off) before it gets better still.

Happy hunting!
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