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Elliott Wave Counting with EG

  • #441
  • Aug 27, 2007 5:18pm Aug 27, 2007 5:18pm
Quoting el grande
Entered a new SHORT Trade at 234.05 EXITED this too early for a meager profit hoping for a new and better entry as I misinterpreted price action to make a large retracement but still expected the downward move.

I should have just stayed on. This is often the problem when I watch my charts. I should have just set and left the trade to run and allow it to go up and down and develop until it reaches the TP levels I have forecasted

TP Levels
233.04 Achieved
232.04
231.40
230.39
working at building B___ of steel
  • #442
  • Aug 27, 2007 5:42pm Aug 27, 2007 5:42pm
GBPJPY

230.37 is the Price Level to Watch for a major Retracement.

This Level surpasses the Origin of Wave 5 Up of Wave 4C (4C5)
  • #443
  • Aug 27, 2007 6:16pm Aug 27, 2007 6:16pm
Out of the 4 negative positions LEFT YESTERDAY from last Friday Closing:

I closed the first one at Zero yesterday morning

the 2nd one I closed a few minutes ago for less than 80pips. ( not a very good idea to close ahead of what I think should still go to 230.37. however, it is my style and I still have 2 more trades remaining. It is related to the multi lot trading style of others with the gradual scaling down of winning positions not increasing. ) I closed it to relieve some stress of carrying a negative position over the weekend. And to think I was willing to close those negative positions last sunday at the expense of losing 2/3 of my account.

Right now, only 2 Short positions remain negative and their origins are
225.85
232.25

You can just imagine how much drawdown my account went thru. But then I was starting to build more confidence in the wave counts plus I stayed alot at Auslanco's thread reading and absorbing a lot of insights from great analysts there and coupled it with my EW Counts... somehow I was able to pull myself thru it all.

Of course, I was also looking at Clusterwise's analysis on GBPJPY for the Long -Term too ( it somehow feels more like the short -term as this pair just zooms UP and Down too fast ).

A special thanks goes to Auslanco. I know how challenging it is to maintain a thread much more multiple threads, posting charts , news and answering queries. But he has done a hell of a job doing all that in his thread. Thanks Auslanco.

This thread of mine sometimes feels and looks more like a journal as I tend to keep on posting here. And not many are prepared to share their wave counts. Special thanks goes to marketwavez, africanpip, money for sharing their charts with us.

Ok... I better get back to my charts now. I just realized something while looking at them now.

EG
  • #444
  • Aug 27, 2007 6:42pm Aug 27, 2007 6:42pm
GBPJPY My Asian Morning Edition

Pull up a 15m chart for this Pair

You will obviously see a downward stairs on your chart as price comes down to your right side or your screens right side.

You will see a 5 wave structure on that first wave down which we can label as W4C511
W for the wave
4 because I think we are in a wave 4 corrective wave from the peak @ 251.07
C because I believe we are in the wave C of an ABC downward structure of Wave 4 down
5 because I think we are now in a Wave 5 down inside the wave C structure.
1 because I think Price is currently developing the 5 wave structure of a sub wave 1 inside the C5 .
1 because I think we are just in a sub wave 1 structure of a higher degree wave 1 inside or making up the 5 wave structure of the 5th impulse wave in Wave C.

Sorry if anybody got lost in there. Practice will help. describe the waves as you see them. Actually, I do not advise newbies to follow my system of labelling. It will get you no where and probably get you more confused.

I suggest that you study the wave principles and break up each wave as far down or Up as possible. Practice makes Perfect. You can take the short route by buying a software... but still you need to have a working knowledge of EW Rules and Application and Interpretation.

Ok back to the Chart...

233.85 low is my wave 1 down termination point
234.64 high is retracement Wave 2 which is barely 50% of wave 1 but near enough although others set acceptability at 38% or higher but not more than 100%

Price hereonmay look like we have developed wave 3 and wave 4 and 5.

But looking at it closer, what would turn out to be wave 3 now is wrong as it becomes the shortest in the group.

This brings us to the next option where we label that first leg dow from wave 2 as wave 31.

That means wave 3 is extended and that we are just seeing now waves 31 32and 33.

we are currently developing wave 34 with a potential retracment of 23.6 as lowest, then 38.2 as common then 50% 61.8 and greater as alternatives, before we see it get to 230.37/39. And maybe even lower as that would just be the termination point of a sub wave 3 in a wave 5 which is divided into 5 waves down.

EG
  • #445
  • Aug 27, 2007 6:46pm Aug 27, 2007 6:46pm
Trade Choice for GBPJPY

I prefer not to scalp or palce any long trades now even with potential retracements.

It is better to ride the trend and that means for me to ADD Short Positions during retracements only.

And that will be easier to do on DEMO.

I am trying to control the urge to add new positions as I get burnt or suffer stressful drawdowns on my account. better to maintain current positions and wait for things to unfold.

There will always be other opportunities to trade this Pair correctly.

EG
  • #446
  • Aug 27, 2007 7:15pm Aug 27, 2007 7:15pm
GBPJPY

Potential Re-Entry for Short Positions @ 232.59 Level

Better at 233 and 233.55

Otherwise, let your current Short trades ride the waves.

EG

PS

Any Scuba Divers and Actual Wave Surfers out here?
  • #447
  • Aug 27, 2007 7:33pm Aug 27, 2007 7:33pm
Wave 4 commonly retraces by 38.2% of Wave3

But the range is actually 23.6 to 78.6%

Common is 38.32

But in a very storng trend market, this will actually retarce just about 23.6%.

I am bringing this up as I think we are developing or have just finished wave 34 in this sub wave 1 in wave 5 down for wave C in GBPJPY.

EG
  • #448
  • Aug 27, 2007 7:52pm Aug 27, 2007 7:52pm
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Entered a new SHORT Trade at 234.05 EXITED this too early for a meager profit hoping for a new and better entry as I misinterpreted price action to make a large retracement but still expected the downward move.

I should have just stayed on. This is often the problem when I watch my charts. I should have just set and left the trade to run and allow it to go up and down and develop until it reaches the TP levels I have forecasted

TP Levels
233.04 Achieved
232.04 Achieved
231.40 Almost Achieved for a second crack at breaking out and lower than 231.68as I type
230.39
  • #449
  • Aug 27, 2007 8:24pm Aug 27, 2007 8:24pm
GBPJPY

What I thought of as 34 was actually just 334.

Current retracement at 232.18 and potentially still to go up is what I think now as 334.

Retracement levels at
232.13
232.50
232.67
232.80
232.09
233.52

BUT note that this may take long moving sideways. Probably exect the Big Move at Euro Open or London Open.

EG
  • #450
  • Aug 27, 2007 8:58pm Aug 27, 2007 8:58pm
GBPJPY

232.50 was @ 38.2% retracement.

A nice position to get in for a short term scalp.

TP at your discretion or you can let it ride down to 230 or lower.

But do not be too greedy........ just a little bit greedy

EG
  • #451
  • Aug 27, 2007 9:09pm Aug 27, 2007 9:09pm
GBPJPY

Wave 33 finished.

38.2% retracement up is good enough for me so I entered a short trade at 232.50.

it then went down almost 45% towards 232.13.... again that is good enough for me. Got out of that short trade with around 15 pips gain net of spread 20. Not bad for less than 5 minutes trade on this pair.

EG

.... told 'ya.... avoid the greed. just be opportunistic and voraciously eat the pips available.
  • #452
  • Aug 27, 2007 9:15pm Aug 27, 2007 9:15pm
GBPJPY

Looks like I have exited that trade quite early.

38.2 retracement was probably good enough for this pair now as it seems it is proceeding with the Bear trend now.

but that is what is noce about trading with very low margin and not trading too much. you get to protect your wrong trades till they get around and you are able to add positions as possible further entries are achieved..

Then when they do start getting arround, you can start scaling down and let the remaining trades carry on.

EG

your broker will be very happy with you as they will have more to earn from each additional position you open.
  • #453
  • Edited 10:22pm Aug 27, 2007 9:18pm | Edited 10:22pm
GBPJPY

Looks like a new opportunity to place a long trade. WHICH I would strongly suggest NOT To Take.

Better to wait for the next Gut Feel Level Retracement based on FIBOs to enter your SHORT Trade.

Possibly @
233.13
233.58
233.95

EG

PS. If it does not happen..... No Problem as I still have existing Short Trades Running..

'Got the Market covered....
  • #454
  • Aug 28, 2007 1:11am Aug 28, 2007 1:11am
Hey EG,

You are really getting into this lately....good to see, just don't burn out bro.... . I did an all-nighter once......only once.....

Anyway I have been grappling with the cable chart the last few days. I am not sure if we are still in a corrective wave or not. I have not closed my long from 9840 yet, it is looking close to that time though. I am not sure about the wave 5 down thing anymore.

I am going to wait and see where this down move ends, currently about 23.6% retrace from yesterday's high. London should give us some direction. if it breaks below 2.020 then shorts are in order.

If this is the start of a bigger wave C down then there are plently pips to get and an entry short below 2 will still be early enough. If this is a wave 2 of a bull wave up then there are also plenty of pips to get on wave 3 up if I close my long now and go in at 2.150 again.

Bottom line is I am not certain at the moment. I am sure we will have a clearer picture in a few hours.

You enquired earlier about diving or surfing. You a bubble blower EG? Good diving spots around my place, world renowned. good surfing as well. I am a surf ski paddler myself, I do a lot of open ocean paddling.

Regards.
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #455
  • Aug 28, 2007 3:53pm Aug 28, 2007 3:53pm
GBPJPY

A Great Morning Everyone.

This is Probably The Best Morning I have ever woken up to........

TP has been met and a nother still running . while a long time tarde in negative position is slowly getting back on its feet.

Never felt this good leaving a trade running....

I have to thank Auslanco and his Buddies... No wonder his thread has been the busiest thread and fastest growing thread in so short a time.

EG
  • #456
  • Aug 28, 2007 4:47pm Aug 28, 2007 4:47pm
GBPJPY

Ok Back to the Charts

Where are we now on GBPJPY.....

Wave 5 down of wave C down

Inside this wave5, we are in a developing wave 3 where we have just finished sub wave 3 and retracing for sub wave 4 towards 228.79, 229.14 more common at 38.2% retracement or further up to 229.42, 229.71 up to 230.11...... But must not go higher than 230.13

From there.... we will see a resumption of the Bear run towards the following levels

227.83
226.05
223.09
221.85 and probably till
220.23

Before we see a major retrace up TEMPORARILY......

EG
  • #457
  • Aug 28, 2007 5:11pm Aug 28, 2007 5:11pm
Quoting africanpip
Hey EG,

You are really getting into this lately....good to see, just don't burn out bro.... . I did an all-nighter once......only once.....

Anyway I have been grappling with the cable chart the last few days. I am not sure if we are still in a corrective wave or not. I have not closed my long from 9840 yet, it is looking close to that time though. I am not sure about the wave 5 down thing anymore.

I am going to wait and see where this down move ends, currently about 23.6% retrace from yesterday's high. London should give us some direction. if it breaks below 2.020 then shorts are in order.

If this is the start of a bigger wave C down then there are plently pips to get and an entry short below 2 will still be early enough. If this is a wave 2 of a bull wave up then there are also plenty of pips to get on wave 3 up if I close my long now and go in at 2.150 again.

Bottom line is I am not certain at the moment. I am sure we will have a clearer picture in a few hours.

You enquired earlier about diving or surfing. You a bubble blower EG? Good diving spots around my place, world renowned. good surfing as well. I am a surf ski paddler myself, I do a lot of open ocean paddling.

Regards.
Hi AP.

Thank you for the reminder. Actually took you on that last night after eating dinner. I did not stay long on my charts. Turned in and went to sleep.

And you know the rest of the story.

I will look into the GBPUSD a little later. Got to have some breakfast now.

BRB

EG

PS.

I use to do scuba diving. But it was mainly because it was part of my job. Could not afford to do it for leasure then. Hopefully , this time I can afford it and see other places too after I finish seeing nice diving spots around here in the Philippines
  • #458
  • Aug 28, 2007 5:16pm Aug 28, 2007 5:16pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Entered a new SHORT Trade at 234.05 EXITED this too early for a meager profit hoping for a new and better entry as I misinterpreted price action to make a large retracement but still expected the downward move.

I should have just stayed on. This is often the problem when I watch my charts. I should have just set and left the trade to run and allow it to go up and down and develop until it reaches the TP levels I have forecasted

TP Levels
233.04 Achieved
232.04
231.40
230.39

working at building B___ of steel

I think I am slowly Building IT

All targets achieved.

Level UP!!!!!

or should I say LEVEL DOWN??

EG

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif

  • #459
  • Aug 28, 2007 6:18pm Aug 28, 2007 6:18pm
GBPJPY

Gunning my sights for 225.98 area for now before a quick rest and retrace....

From there..... its Dive Bears ...... Dive.........

Till 221.85 area and possibly till 220.23

EG
  • #460
  • Aug 28, 2007 6:52pm Aug 28, 2007 6:52pm
Quoting el grande
GBPJPY

Ok Back to the Charts

Where are we now on GBPJPY.....

Wave 5 down of wave C down

Inside this wave5, we are in a developing wave 3 where we have just finished sub wave 3 and retracing for sub wave 4 towards 228.79, 229.14 more common at 38.2% retracement or further up to 229.42, 229.71 up to 230.11...... But must not go higher than 230.13

From there.... we will see a resumption of the Bear run towards the following levels

227.83
226.05
223.09
221.85 and probably till
220.23

Before we see a major retrace up TEMPORARILY......

EG

GBPJPY

227.83 ACHIEVED

EG
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