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Elliott Wave Counting with EG

  • #421
  • Aug 27, 2007 5:39am Aug 27, 2007 5:39am
Elliott Waves - Fact or Fiction ?
If you give 10 traders the same chart data and
they were all familiar with Elliott Waves Formations ....

Would they all come up with the same wave count ?

What do you think ? ...........

( If you think No) - Please explain why not ...........

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
  • #422
  • Aug 27, 2007 5:49am Aug 27, 2007 5:49am
GBPJPY

Let us get something straight here.

My view is still bearish for this pair.

So if I see signs of this pair going up in the short term that does not still change my long term view.

Meaning I will keep my short trades and probably add short trades as this pair goes up. Although at the moment, I prefer to sit and watch and baby sit my negative short positions right now.

I prefer not to counter trade or scalp the temporary bull trend. (short term in my view ).

EG
  • #423
  • Aug 27, 2007 6:06am Aug 27, 2007 6:06am
GBPJPY

I just exited my latest short trade for a 10 pip loss inclusive of the spread.

I prefer to enter at the top of wave c. anyway, speread this pm with my broker went down to 9 pips instead of the usual 20 for this pair. not bad at all.

Assessing Risk and Loss, I think exiting that short trade for me was still ok. If it does go up to finish a flat corrective wave or zigzag... then I have an opportunity to enter a short trade that would more than compensate for the current small loss. If it continues to go down from here, it does nit hurt so much. Jsut a loss of almost 10 pips and the missed opportunity. However, we should have the view that a good trade will always be there later today or the next day.

Better to sit back now and watch rather than watch and baby sit more negative short trades jsut in case.

EG

One must treat his trades right now as if they were LIVE even though it is on Demo.

OK..... got to go for awhile and have supper with the Family. Be back in an hour....
  • #424
  • Aug 27, 2007 6:15am Aug 27, 2007 6:15am
Quoting marketwavez
Elliott Waves - Fact or Fiction ?


If you give 10 traders the same chart data and
they were all familiar with Elliott Waves Formations ....

Would they all come up with the same wave count ?

What do you think ? ...........

( If you think No) - Please explain why not ...........

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Hi Marketwavez.

Is this a trick question????

I have read and heard the usual answer so many times and that is, "No they will not all come up with the same Count"

However, I would like to beg to disagree with that view. I believe that if we all followed the EW Rules strictly we should have the same count.

On the other hand, because of the many possibilities that may turn out on the development of price levels, if we lay out all the possibilities I am sure the differences in the wave count may be there but each wave count will be found in the pool of possible counts. Provided each analyst does not break any EW Rule.

EG
  • #425
  • Aug 27, 2007 6:36am Aug 27, 2007 6:36am
Elliott Waves

- Is it more like an Art or like a Science ? ..................
----------------------------------------------------------
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #426
  • Aug 27, 2007 6:40am Aug 27, 2007 6:40am
Quoting marketwavez
Elliott Waves

- Is it more like an Art or like a Science ? ..................
----------------------------------------------------------

I would say BOTH.

Art because of the Visual Look of Patterns

And A Science because of of its Mathematical Precision and Probabilities
  • #427
  • Aug 27, 2007 6:41am Aug 27, 2007 6:41am
Quoting marketwavez
Elliott Waves

- Is it more like an Art or like a Science ? ..................
----------------------------------------------------------
My answer is -Neither !

It is a matter of interpretation
( based on your own trading style and experience )

-------------------------------------------------------------
  • #428
  • Aug 27, 2007 6:43am Aug 27, 2007 6:43am
Where is Africanpip ?

What do you think ?...... If you are here
------------------------------------------------
  • #429
  • Aug 27, 2007 7:07am Aug 27, 2007 7:07am
Allow me to expound on why I think it is BOTH an Art and A science.

No offence meant. Just my humble opinion.

ART
I think it becomes an ARTwhen one starts to understand the visual appearance of the waves and when one starts to learn how to interpret the development of Patterns as they evolve. We have the Elliott Wave Patterns, Wolfe Wave , Harmonic, Gartley, Pesavento and probably a number more out there.

Science kicks in when one starts applying the Mathematical side to Price interpretation and Price Projections based on Fibonacci Levels of Retracements and Extentions. The fact that studies have been conducted as to how price is related to the different Fibonacci Levels... this has placed Elliott Wave Theory into a Science in itself and made valuable as a tool in interpreting Market behaviour.

EG
  • #430
  • Aug 27, 2007 7:10am Aug 27, 2007 7:10am
Quoting el grande
GBPJPY

I just exited my latest short trade for a 10 pip loss inclusive of the spread.

I prefer to enter at the top of wave c. anyway, speread this pm with my broker went down to 9 pips instead of the usual 20 for this pair. not bad at all.

Assessing Risk and Loss, I think exiting that short trade for me was still ok. If it does go up to finish a flat corrective wave or zigzag... then I have an opportunity to enter a short trade that would more than compensate for the current small loss. If it continues to go down from here, it does nit hurt so much. Jsut a loss of almost 10 pips and the missed opportunity. However, we should have the view that a good trade will always be there later today or the next day.

Better to sit back now and watch rather than watch and baby sit more negative short trades jsut in case.

EG

One must treat his trades right now as if they were LIVE even though it is on Demo.

OK..... got to go for awhile and have supper with the Family. Be back in an hour....
I just missed an opportunity to gain 27 pips on that short trade I closed for 10 pip loss.

I think after hitting and bouncing off of 233.90, this could start its ascent towards 234.83 for C = A
  • #431
  • Aug 27, 2007 7:31am Aug 27, 2007 7:31am
Quoting marketwavez
Where is Africanpip ?

What do you think ?...... If you are here
------------------------------------------------
...

Nothing much to say at the moment ......but first answer me this what is Art and what is a Science?.......:

Maybe the words (see underlined) EW Theory and wave principle should give us some clue.

Far too philosophical for a simple FX trader wannabe.

I am just watching the patterns unfold reflecting the psychology of the market.
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #432
  • Edited 8:04am Aug 27, 2007 7:37am | Edited 8:04am
Quoting el grande
I just missed an opportunity to gain 27 pips on that short trade I closed for 10 pip loss.

I think after hitting and bouncing off of 233.90, this could start its ascent towards 234.83 for C = A

Should I kick myself in the butt for exiting that short trade...????

I would say NO. I can enter onn the retracement now. Maybe not as high a position as I wanted too. But it is fine.

EG

Moral of the Story is, have sufficient SL for your trades. I did not have sufficient funds to increase SL of that trade..... I could have double my investment on that trade and could probably call it a day.

If I had enough funds to increase my SL, that would have been nicer. Tis is the reason why it is not advisable to trade very short time frames.

I think we are now in a sideways corrective movement in GBPJPY. Wave 2 was a sharp zigzag. Expecting Wave 4 to be expanding sideways. Currently just seeing a potential for a finished wave A in this corrective Wave 4a. A Wave before continuing up for the Wave Ce b retracement of 50% of wave a
  • #433
  • Aug 27, 2007 8:21am Aug 27, 2007 8:21am
Quoting el grande
GBPJPY

Initial Wave 1 target completion at:

233.49 Nearly reached
232.89
231.77
230.49 favoring this one to exhibit going past the previous swing from the sub wave of the corrective wave that just finished.

EG
Entered a new SHORT Trade at 234.05

TP Levels
233.04
232.04
231.40
230.39
  • #434
  • Aug 27, 2007 8:23am Aug 27, 2007 8:23am
Anyone thinks that we are in doing the beginning of wave 5 of 5?
Target at 237.11 then 239.14.

If this is true, we are doing 5-3-5 in big wave 4? then eventually a dive down for big 5? ... this is my hope
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy-h1-20070827.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #435
  • Aug 27, 2007 9:30am Aug 27, 2007 9:30am
Quoting el grande
Entered a new SHORT Trade at 234.05

TP Levels
233.04
232.04
231.40
230.39
Exited for a profit of 10 pips instead of almost 40 because I got worriedthat it would go back up.

This is the problem when I am watching my trades. I tend to panic. So I still need to continue working on my emotions.

My dilemna is that I am trading the 15 min charts which could move so fast and possibility of getting whipsawed is higher specially if you cannot afford to place very wide SLs.

Anyway, I am fine with this for now. Will wait for another opportunity to enter my short trades again.

EG
  • #436
  • Edited 11:36am Aug 27, 2007 9:44am | Edited 11:36am
The need to master Elliot Wave Theory / Principle so I will continue to gain more confidence with my EW Count.

Twice already tonight here in Asia that I have exited a nice set up with a small Loss instead of a big Gain advantage.

Trying to develop Balls of Steel here.

EG
  • #437
  • Aug 27, 2007 12:35pm Aug 27, 2007 12:35pm
GBPJPY

Looking and waiting for a new Short Set-up @ around 234 or a little higher.

EG
  • #438
  • Aug 27, 2007 2:21pm Aug 27, 2007 2:21pm
Been away for a few days and cable has broken 20152 so I will need to revisit the original wave count. However, at first glance it looks like the obvious main interpretations:
1) Zig-zag finished at 19652 completing Wave A with Wave B in progress
2) Zig-zag finished at 19652 completing Wave A-B-C. Started Wave 1
3) Wave count[s] based on this being some variation of Wave 4 but with Wave 1 not finishing at 20152

Would be interested in people's views as to what interpretation seems most likely? Ideally with their reasons: Elliot Wave count, relationships...

I think that question above also highlights the key point about art ["look"] | science ["number relationships"] | interpretation ["probability"]. That point being that at any one point in time it is possible to have multiple DIFFERENT but VALID wave counts [look and price/time relationships]. Of course, on occasion there may only be one valid wave count that fits all of the evidence but this seems to be the exception rather than the rule. It is with multiple valid wave counts that the analyst's interpretation of probable events becomes key because until price action evolves there is no way to determine the correct wave count. Even with hindsight it may be difficult unless the time period is long enough! [Of course impulse waves should be much easier to identify than complex corrections...]
  • #439
  • Aug 27, 2007 4:51pm Aug 27, 2007 4:51pm
Quoting el grande
GBPJPY

Looking and waiting for a new Short Set-up @ around 234 or a little higher.

EG

It was early morning here and I did not have sleep yet.

I dozed off and missed that opportunity to enter my short trade at 234 area.

at first I felt ... not really bad for missing that opportunity, I just have to console myself at the fact that my wave count or forecast was almost right on to the correct level or turning point.

that knowledge is valuable as it helps build confidence in my own amateur wave counts.

Smile everyone. There's gotto be alot of pips to harvest out there.

EG

PS. Not to mention that nice short trade I exited for a meager profit.....
  • #440
  • Aug 27, 2007 5:01pm Aug 27, 2007 5:01pm
Quoting rnl16616
I think that question above also highlights the key point about art ["look"] | science ["number relationships"] | interpretation ["probability"]. That point being that at any one point in time it is possible to have multiple DIFFERENT but VALID wave counts [look and price/time relationships]. Of course, on occasion there may only be one valid wave count that fits all of the evidence but this seems to be the exception rather than the rule. It is with multiple valid wave counts that the analyst's interpretation of probable events becomes key because until price action evolves there is no way to determine the correct wave count. Even with hindsight it may be difficult unless the time period is long enough! [Of course impulse waves should be much easier to identify than complex corrections...]
mismo... right on target
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