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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #26,761
  • Aug 24, 2007 9:43am Aug 24, 2007 9:43am
New home sales rise 2.8% to 870,000 pace in July

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Sales of new home increased 2.8% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 870,000 as the inventory of homes for sale dropped for a fourth straight month, the Commerce Department estimated Friday.

Sales were stronger than the 820,000 annualized pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar. In addition, sales in June were revised slightly higher.
Sales are down 10.2% compared with last July. Read the full report.
Stocks turned higher after the report was released. See Market

Inventories of unsold homes fell about 1% to 533,000, the fourth consecutive decline. At the July sales pace, the inventory represented 7.5 months' supply, down from 7.7 months in June. Inventories are down 7% since last July.
Johann Channels and cycles are everything
  • #26,762
  • Aug 24, 2007 9:43am Aug 24, 2007 9:43am
Quoting cesarnc
No.. I meant in the stock market... everybody expecting a slump in New Homes, selloffs, calling it a day earler...

Then comes the "Friday-factor"....

PS. I was also with GJ ticket open to sell the crap out of it.
friday factor you mean that on fridays especially in the closing hours of the DJ, the market gets crazy and pretty much north i believe right?

like a good way to end the week mentality?

especially after such a great new home sales number.
give me my pips back...
  • #26,763
  • Aug 24, 2007 9:47am Aug 24, 2007 9:47am
I think this was: Buy the rumor. Sell the news
Johann Channels and cycles are everything
  • #26,764
  • Aug 24, 2007 9:50am Aug 24, 2007 9:50am
Quoting Lincoln_10
friday factor you mean that on fridays especially in the closing hours of the DJ, the market gets crazy and pretty much north i believe right?
No... Fridays are just crazy.... They grab even those doomsday smartasses in Wall Street by the horn

  • #26,765
  • Aug 24, 2007 9:52am Aug 24, 2007 9:52am
I closed 2 of my 4 long trades
2.0030 closed @ 2.0111 (+81 pips)
2.0040 closed @ 2.0111 (+71 pips)
1.9870 still running
1.9904 still running
  • #26,766
  • Aug 24, 2007 9:53am Aug 24, 2007 9:53am
As to the Dow - I think the uncertainty is with the longs, so I don't think they want to hold over the weekend. Can always jump back in on monday, but with overhead resistance no reason to do it today.
  • #26,767
  • Aug 24, 2007 10:01am Aug 24, 2007 10:01am
I have been in and out of this market today like a fiddler's elbow and through sheer good luck and no skill I am well up so far...trying to stay away now...

but look ! isnt that a buy point ?
  • #26,768
  • Aug 24, 2007 10:04am Aug 24, 2007 10:04am
Put that mouse down and have a pint, will ya.
  • #26,769
  • Aug 24, 2007 10:04am Aug 24, 2007 10:04am
The prices stayed above 2.01 for the last hour, but it ran before the hourly close to 2.009's and closed @ 2.0095
  • #26,770
  • Aug 24, 2007 10:05am Aug 24, 2007 10:05am
  •  CWH
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: United We Buy, Divided We Sell | 249 Posts
Just 1 pip short of 2.0120
"If, at first, you don't succeed, try, try, try again" - Winston Churchill
  • #26,771
  • Aug 24, 2007 10:07am Aug 24, 2007 10:07am
Quoting pino2
The prices stayed above 2.01 for the last hour, but it ran before the hourly close to 2.009's and closed @ 2.0095
Prices now @ 2.008's I was lucky to close half of my trades @ 2.0111 before it dropped now
  • #26,772
  • Aug 24, 2007 10:14am Aug 24, 2007 10:14am
Check this out......tech analysts at CitiFx point to historical comparsions in the DOW, which suggest the index may yet see a new downturn. In 1990 the DJIA peaked on July 17 and then fell 21.8% over 63 trading days and in 1998 the index peaked on July 17 and then fell 21.6% over 31 trading days they noted.

Now in 2007 the DJIA peaks again on July 17 and turns. With the two prior occasions averaging 21.7% down over 47 trading days the sweet spot (if this correction goes according to plan) would be to see the DJIA at just below 11000 on or around 19 September and no later than 11 October 2007, CitiFx says...........

September 19...right around Bernanke decision time.....this could be an interesting ride over this next month......

Could this be why the DOW is having trouble cracking the 13300 mark????

Makes you wonder???????
  • #26,773
  • Aug 24, 2007 10:16am Aug 24, 2007 10:16am
"CNBC Is Dangerous for Your Health!

August 16, 2007 in Holy Grails

As part of a research project (news on that coming!), I have watched most of the last 3 days of CNBC's daily programming (trading hours in the US). Historically, it was a good time to tune in no doubt, but I seriously wonder about the mental health of anyone who can listen all day long to fundamental opinions - especially when markets are gyrating over 200 points a day on the Dow. One minute a 30 point Dow rally is news and all smiles, them the market closes down 169 and screams for the Fed to cut abound. Everything has a reason and everyone has an opinion. Why not say what Jim Simons has said about early August so far ("we were not lucky")? Doesn't that sound more real?
Don't get me wrong, many of CNBC's on air reporters are talented broadcasters and fun to watch as entertainment, but they are tasked with making random price movements appear exciting. They are tasked with connecting random price movements to "meaning". And that is impossible regardless of how good a broadcaster one might be."
.
  • #26,774
  • Aug 24, 2007 10:19am Aug 24, 2007 10:19am
Trendlines Playing Tricks

April 06, 2005

Technical analysis is often abused. Many people think it is all about prediction. Some think trendlines offer use. A common thought from those that believe in predictive trendlines:
"Trendlines work quite well and are not uncommon."
We came across a good refutation of trendlines:
"Tendlines exist only in the eye of the beholder. Where you draw a trendline will be different to where someone else may draw a trendline. To use them for generating entry signals is about as useful as random entry. Visual containment is about their only use. but if you cant tell the direction from simply looking at a chart then you have problems...The problem for me though [with trendlines]...is my broker won't let me trade in the past. He insists I make all decisions on the hard right hand edge of the chart."
.
  • #26,775
  • Edited 10:20am Aug 24, 2007 10:19am | Edited 10:20am
That's why I only want to see what the DOW is doing and what the key players have to say....there the ones who can move the market... otherwise I watching sports.....
  • #26,776
  • Aug 24, 2007 10:23am Aug 24, 2007 10:23am
Quoting Turtle
Check this out......tech analysts at CitiFx point to historical comparsions in the DOW, which suggest the index may yet see a new downturn. In 1990 the DJIA peaked on July 17 and then fell 21.8% over 63 trading days and in 1998 the index peaked on July 17 and then fell 21.6% over 31 trading days they noted.

Now in 2007 the DJIA peaks again on July 17 and turns. With the two prior occasions averaging 21.7% down over 47 trading days the sweet spot (if this correction goes according to plan) would be to see the DJIA at just below 11000 on or around 19 September and no later than 11 October 2007, CitiFx says...........

September 19...right around Bernanke decision time.....this could be an interesting ride over this next month......

Could this be why the DOW is having trouble cracking the 13300 mark????

Makes you wonder???????
yep. I´ve read about the 11000 target from another source. We can only wait , see and trade.... We must be prepared to trade what ever the market give us.
Johann Channels and cycles are everything
  • #26,777
  • Aug 24, 2007 10:23am Aug 24, 2007 10:23am
Volume drying up across the board....

Expecting dow to go grinding higher after lunchtime until close. Monday a new whole world... Same for cable and GJ...

Nap time... what a week.
  • #26,778
  • Aug 24, 2007 10:24am Aug 24, 2007 10:24am
Quoting bullrock
"CNBC Is Dangerous for Your Health!

August 16, 2007 in Holy Grails

As part of a research project (news on that coming!), I have watched most of the last 3 days of CNBC's daily programming (trading hours in the US). Historically, it was a good time to tune in no doubt, but I seriously wonder about the mental health of anyone who can listen all day long to fundamental opinions - especially when markets are gyrating over 200 points a day on the Dow. One minute a 30 point Dow rally is news and all smiles, them the market closes down 169 and screams for the Fed to cut abound. Everything has a reason and everyone has an opinion. Why not say what Jim Simons has said about early August so far ("we were not lucky")? Doesn't that sound more real?
Don't get me wrong, many of CNBC's on air reporters are talented broadcasters and fun to watch as entertainment, but they are tasked with making random price movements appear exciting. They are tasked with connecting random price movements to "meaning". And that is impossible regardless of how good a broadcaster one might be."
lot of adverts too...addictive though... since I moved away from my free anologue dish I have not been able to get it and my mental health has improved to almost 'releasable' and my account is better too...
Got some nice birds though so it's best to watch between adverts with the sound off.
  • #26,779
  • Aug 24, 2007 10:29am Aug 24, 2007 10:29am
Quoting Tragapips
yep. I´ve read about the 11000 target from another source. We can only wait , see and trade.... We must be prepared to trade what ever the market give us.
We will have to keep on our toes this next month.......
  • #26,780
  • Aug 24, 2007 10:31am Aug 24, 2007 10:31am
it is getting down so hard

Well Monday morning it will swump down4sure

almost certain - eh but what is certain in Forex

and this is beauty of this "sport"
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