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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #25,881
  • Aug 21, 2007 4:52am Aug 21, 2007 4:52am
Pound and Uj already dropped like a rock and Euro is still there???

Common this is starting to be stupid. Different sentiments now? ..

I'm short EU from 1.3476

Reason? Just like i said.... without a little confirmation, there is no resume...!

Panic in the markets? Maybe...! If we see new lows. For now this is normal price action, at least for me.

If i lose, too bad, but it will be kind of wierd.

Bearish techs combined with -6 vs -1 expected ZEW. Combined with carries unwinding. What am i doing wrong?
  • #25,882
  • Aug 21, 2007 4:54am Aug 21, 2007 4:54am
Quoting Warper
Pound and Uj already dropped like a rock and Euro is still there???

Common this is starting to be stupid. Different sentiments now? ..

I'm short EU from 1.3476

Reason? Just like i said.... without a little confirmation, there is no resume...!

Panic in the markets? Maybe...! If we see new lows. For now this is normal price action, at least for me.

If i lose, too bad, but it will be kind of wierd.


Bearish techs combined with -6 vs -1 expected ZEW. Combined with carries unwinding. What am i doing wrong?
Let's see if the pair can make a new low today...
Hello World
  • #25,883
  • Aug 21, 2007 4:57am Aug 21, 2007 4:57am
(RTTNews) - The Euro zone trade surplus widened to 7.8 billion euros in June from the 1.7 billion euros seen in the prior month, the first estimate from the Eurostat indicated Tuesday. Economists were looking for a surplus of 4.0 billion euros. A year ago, the trade surplus amounted to 1.6 billion euros. Exports grew 1.7% from the prior month, while imports grew 0.7%. The report added that Extra-EU27 trade was a deficit of 9.4 billion euros. The trade deficit increased from 15.0 billion euros. Exports were up 3.1% and imports advanced 1.1%. For comments and feedback: contact [email protected]opyright(c) 2007 RealTimeTraders.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved

(RTTNews) - After holding steady in the Asian deals on Tuesday, the US dollar edged up against the British pound in the early European session. Moving from 1.9886, the pair fetched as high as 1.9742 lately. As of now, the near term resistance level for the dollar is seen around 1.9695.For comments and feedback: contact [email protected]opyright(c) 2007 RealTimeTraders.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved

Headlines: Investors lose trust as the Sterling goes down
The pound declined versus the dollar and the euro in London trading on concern the credit market crisis is spreading to the U.K. Against the dollar, the pound dropped to $1.9806 by 8 a.m. in London, from $1.9878 late yesterday. It also traded at 68.05 pence per euro from 67.79 pence on Aug. 20. The implied yield on the September interest-rate futures contract declined 3 basis points to 6.25 percent. The yield on the 4 percent gilt due September 2016 fell 4 basis points to 5.03 percent, and the yield on the 4 percent note maturing in March 2009 slipped 3 basis points to 5.31 percent yesterday. Yields move inversely to bond prices.
The following technical analysis gives us a detailed lookout on what is expected to happen to GBP/USD.
The buying point is at 2.0180; based on a break of previous resistance.

  1. Fibonacci retracement 23.6% is the take profit at 2.0415
  2. Previous support will be the stop loss at 1.9982

The selling point is at 1.9815; based on a Failure swing and a break of previous support 2.0096

  1. Fibonacci retracement 50% is the take profit at 1.9586
  2. Fibonacci 61.8% is the stop loss at 2.0023

To strengthen our analysis; we use many other indicators, starting with MACD (Moving Averages convergence divergence); we notice the crossing of the two moving averages above the zero line, the shorter term moving average is faster than the long term and is pointing downwards with break of zero line. In order to find the power of the market, we use RSI (Relative Strength Index).With RSI, we can determine that the market is in a downtrend.

Hello World
  • #25,884
  • Aug 21, 2007 4:57am Aug 21, 2007 4:57am
Quoting waf_1988
Intraday bias is already down. Shorting cable is an option, yet...You may want to stay out, it's fine...
I will be out for a couple of hours just ahead of NY open. So without actually seeing what's going on, I'm not leaving my money for the run, that's why...

If I could, I'd be scalping quick shorts in Cable and GJ...
  • #25,885
  • Aug 21, 2007 5:00am Aug 21, 2007 5:00am
Quoting Warper
Pound and Uj already dropped like a rock and Euro is still there???

Common this is starting to be stupid. Different sentiments now? ..

I'm short EU from 1.3476

Reason? Just like i said.... without a little confirmation, there is no resume...!

Panic in the markets? Maybe...! If we see new lows. For now this is normal price action, at least for me.

If i lose, too bad, but it will be kind of wierd.

Bearish techs combined with -6 vs -1 expected ZEW. Combined with carries unwinding. What am i doing wrong?
the heart of a trader with big balls, that trade might not be a bad one, 9 out of ten the euro will follow, but with the market acting like this who know what gonna happen, but like you said if you loos too bad, like i said ( i take my losses like a man and take my winnings like a women= spend it on fancy sh:t )
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #25,886
  • Aug 21, 2007 5:02am Aug 21, 2007 5:02am
Here's the chart:
Attached Images
Hello World
  • #25,887
  • Aug 21, 2007 5:06am Aug 21, 2007 5:06am
Quoting Moe
( i take my losses like a man and take my winnings like a women= spend it on fancy sh:t )
I bet $20 like you also scream around a little..
  • #25,888
  • Aug 21, 2007 5:10am Aug 21, 2007 5:10am
Quoting cesarnc
I bet $20 like you also scream around a little..




Hello World
  • #25,889
  • Aug 21, 2007 5:13am Aug 21, 2007 5:13am
Quoting cesarnc
I bet $20 like you also scream around a little..
lmao, only when im winning.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #25,890
  • Aug 21, 2007 5:18am Aug 21, 2007 5:18am
I forgot trade balance.. but there is nothing new. Everybody already knows that the strong euro is not hurting exports.

Uj still dropping and EU and GU boucing?

USD being sold? I have a Euro Bull jacket in the closet.

Don't make me use it right now!


Moe that's right, but i don't think anybody need big balls on this one. Euro rejected aggressively the 382 fib from the big down move and hold way below, like others did.

This might be switching to neutral, but bullish? Why it should be bullish today?



By the way, Moe, do you have 200 000 euros? I want a Lamborghini.
  • #25,891
  • Aug 21, 2007 5:21am Aug 21, 2007 5:21am
"Investors awaited a meeting by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd on Tuesday as they will discuss conditions in financial markets.

The closed-door meeting is to take place later in today's session and Dodd, a Democrat from Connecticut, is expected to hold a press conference afterwards.


The Fed on Friday cut the discount rate it charges on direct loans to banks by half a percentage point to 5.75%, saying credit market tightening could slow U.S. growth."
  • #25,892
  • Aug 21, 2007 5:21am Aug 21, 2007 5:21am
I can imagine gbp being weak with low inflation numbers like that...but why is the euro so weak ?

Is it only that the USD is a safe haven as the world economy crashes into oblivion due to Enis' shack repossession ? ?

yes something fundamental hit GBP this week and it deserves to be down - but the euro ?

Did I miss something or is a euro recovery a good bet ?

better than gbp ?
  • #25,893
  • Aug 21, 2007 5:27am Aug 21, 2007 5:27am
I am starting to buy GBP/USD . Look at chart
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip 21.08.07.zip   96 KB | 272 downloads
  • #25,894
  • Aug 21, 2007 5:29am Aug 21, 2007 5:29am
Quoting allserene
I can imagine gbp being weak with low inflation numbers like that...but why is the euro so weak ?

Is it only that the USD is a safe haven as the world economy crashes into oblivion due to Enis' shack repossession ? ?

yes something fundamental hit GBP this week and it deserves to be down - but the euro ?

Did I miss something or is a euro recovery a good bet ?

better than gbp ?
Is that true that GBP and EUR is somewhat connected?! You know, when one is weak, the other get the impact also...Please advise...
Hello World
  • #25,895
  • Aug 21, 2007 5:32am Aug 21, 2007 5:32am
Quoting waf_1988
Is that true that GBP and EUR is somewhat connected?! You know, when one is weak, the other get the impact also...Please advise...
80% of the time.

gbp/usd-eur/usd goes up and usd/chf goes down and vice versa.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #25,896
  • Aug 21, 2007 5:36am Aug 21, 2007 5:36am
See you guys later in US session. I'll go to have my sweet meal first... Hopefully, the market can give us what we deserve..

I like a strong bear to show off actually...But bull divergence may have some opening...
Hello World
  • #25,897
  • Aug 21, 2007 5:37am Aug 21, 2007 5:37am
UP...DOWN...UP...DOWN...

One person saids something cable goes UP....China hikes interest rates...cable goes down.....dog takes a piss on tree...cable goes up...toliet overflows..cable goes down.....

With this crap going on....what is a trader to do...
  • #25,898
  • Aug 21, 2007 5:44am Aug 21, 2007 5:44am
Big daddy coming...

"The European Central Bank on Tuesday allotted 275 billion euros ($370.3 billion) in 7-day refinancing operations, at an average interest rate of 4.09%."
  • #25,899
  • Aug 21, 2007 5:45am Aug 21, 2007 5:45am
Clearly. USD was getting sold in all pairs a few moments ago.

Obviously this has something to do with the fed meeting.

Don't tell me that this is a flash intraday rate cut pricing lol.

Bah. I make a good analysis and i get surprised. Not fair...
  • #25,900
  • Aug 21, 2007 5:51am Aug 21, 2007 5:51am
Quoting Turtle
UP...DOWN...UP...DOWN...

One person saids something cable goes UP....China hikes interest rates...cable goes down.....dog takes a piss on tree...cable goes up...toliet overflows..cable goes down.....

With this crap going on....what is a trader to do...
Market acts like my pregnant wife sometimes, VEEEEEEEEERYYYYYY HISTERICAL.....
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