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Elliott Wave Counting with EG

  • #281
  • Aug 17, 2007 11:48am Aug 17, 2007 11:48am
Quoting el grande
This is what I was supposed to write for EURUSD this morning:

Wave 4 Retracement:
1.3529
1.3501
1.3473
1.3439

All Achieved and even exceeded.

The reason I write this ( I know others will criticize me for this, But it does not matter. ) This is just to illustrate further what marketwavez has been vocal about Using EW Theory in your Price Analysis and not to listen or be affected by news.

It is just so amazing how EW can help provide idea as to price direction and potential levels.

EG

EG,

Sorry I haven't paid much attention to the wave counts of gbpyen, will try to do some, but in the bush this week end chasing Rhino. I sense you are getting quite excited about your counts, thats fantastic! Good feeling when counts and "predictions" work.

I managed to get some good pips on the wave 4 up of C and turn around my miss on the end of 3 earlier. You think we are on wave 5 down now? (cable) from end of 4 at 9934, just to where is the question....I hit the turn quite nicely with an entry short at 9905.

Euro should be on similar count....

Good work.....

Regards,

AP
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #282
  • Aug 17, 2007 5:13pm Aug 17, 2007 5:13pm
Quoting africanpip
EG,

Sorry I haven't paid much attention to the wave counts of gbpyen, will try to do some, but in the bush this week end chasing Rhino. I sense you are getting quite excited about your counts, thats fantastic! Good feeling when counts and "predictions" work.

I managed to get some good pips on the wave 4 up of C and turn around my miss on the end of 3 earlier. You think we are on wave 5 down now? (cable) from end of 4 at 9934, just to where is the question....I hit the turn quite nicely with an entry short at 9905.

Euro should be on similar count....

Good work.....

Regards,

AP

Nice work on that Entry AP. I think that is the end of Wave 4. It is supposed to be 23.6 to 50% retrace of Wave 3. And normally at 38.2%.

It just hit 38.2 and has that pin bar on the 1hour chart. Looks like your all set for the ride South.

But going micro on this, 1 hour left a pin bar on the chart and going down to 5m..... you will see a big gap and the pin bar as the last candlestick. I would consider this to cause a retrace by Sunday opening for the sub-wave 2 UP of the Wave 1 down of Wave 5 down in Wave C down of Wave 4 Down.

???? hhhhmmmm..............

To make it simpler in code/label form..... we will see a retrace for Wave 4.C.5.1.2 which could visit 1.99 area again. I would love that so I can ride that pull back.

However, with this pending retrace, I would advise caution as that GAP in 5m chart could send price piercing that last high at 1.9935 and may just go up to 2.0130 - 2.0044 area or it could probably range "sideways" to make a
a triangle since Wave 2 was a sharp correction.

Just my thoughts on Cable...

EG
  • #283
  • Aug 17, 2007 6:28pm Aug 17, 2007 6:28pm
AP,

I was just reviewing my GBPUSD chart and started with my monthly then I remembered encountering Igorok's comment that we may see Cable going down to 1.7700 area...


Looking at the minthly chart, this is possible if we consider that short wave up as the sub wave 1 of a wave 3 UP. Then we could be on a 5 wave structure of a much bigger Wave A down. That puts current scenario as

Instead of being in a Wave 4 down, we could be in a much bigger Wave A down and that this C Wave down is actually a Wave 3 down inside a Wave A down . Labelled as from the monthly chart Wave 3.3.1.2

Daily trendline has been broken so we are now in a major bear market ( I think ).. This may not be in just a small corrective scale considering that initially a Daily trendline was broken.

Let us dissect this issue on trendlines.

Daily was broken and 2 bars completed (below that break).

Weekly is pierced but now has no new bar completed under that break. if this coming week finishes its bar ( bar definitely opens below that trendline break ) and sees it completely under that trendline break, then I will stop looking at 2.1000 or higher than 2.0652 for now.

Monthly would definitely open below that trend line.

So for now I am shifting gears long term as in weeks.

Current outlook would now be generally bearish for Cable.

With everything happenning to the Dollar, I am wondering HOW THE DOLLAR OUTLOOK FOR ME NOW AS BULLISH COMES AROUND WITH ALL THE PROBLEMS THERE.

If this holds, Elliott is such a genius for having founded this theory considering that he manually shifted thru endless loads of paper, charts and data. And to top it all off, there were no computeers at that time.

Great MAN. But I would also commend Robert Prechter for having simplified and organized Learning tools for Elliott Wave Theory.

What a week we just had....

EG

PS. If this is happening to the Cable, I expect that is going to happen to all the Major USD Crosses too.

So... I am riding with the Bears for now.
  • #284
  • Aug 19, 2007 9:40am Aug 19, 2007 9:40am
some comments in red

Quoting el grande
AP,

I was just reviewing my GBPUSD chart and started with my monthly then I remembered encountering Igorok's comment that we may see Cable going down to 1.7700 area...


Looking at the minthly chart, this is possible if we consider that short wave up as the sub wave 1 of a wave 3 UP. Then we could be on a 5 wave structure of a much bigger Wave A down. That puts current scenario as

Instead of being in a Wave 4 down, we could be in a much bigger Wave A down and that this C Wave down is actually a Wave 3 down inside a Wave A down . Labelled as from the monthly chart Wave 3.3.1.2

I agree in fact see my monthly chart posted on 4th August (#192) you will see a red A there floating around the low 1.80's. It is the monthly chart so still some time to get there. We are almost at A on weekly, so we still have to go up to B on weekly chart (I imagine around 2.0500 area then down to A on monthly, C on weekly, I imagine mid 2008)

Daily trendline has been broken so we are now in a major bear market ( I think ).. This may not be in just a small corrective scale considering that initially a Daily trendline was broken.

Let us dissect this issue on trendlines.

Daily was broken and 2 bars completed (below that break).

Weekly is pierced but now has no new bar completed under that break. if this coming week finishes its bar ( bar definitely opens below that trendline break ) and sees it completely under that trendline break, then I will stop looking at 2.1000 or higher than 2.0652 for now.

Agreed!!

Monthly would definitely open below that trend line.

So for now I am shifting gears long term as in weeks.

Current outlook would now be generally bearish for Cable.

With everything happenning to the Dollar, I am wondering HOW THE DOLLAR OUTLOOK FOR ME NOW AS BULLISH COMES AROUND WITH ALL THE PROBLEMS THERE.

If this holds, Elliott is such a genius for having founded this theory considering that he manually shifted thru endless loads of paper, charts and data. And to top it all off, there were no computeers at that time.

Great MAN. But I would also commend Robert Prechter for having simplified and organized Learning tools for Elliott Wave Theory.

What a week we just had....

EG

PS. If this is happening to the Cable, I expect that is going to happen to all the Major USD Crosses too.

So... I am riding with the Bears for now.

I agree but don't be surprised if we start moving up to 2.0500 as a larger B wave (after the bottom of A on weekly, around 94/95 area)

Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #285
  • Aug 19, 2007 10:11am Aug 19, 2007 10:11am
I would agree with the wave counts that have GBP/USD going much lower. On the daily chart, I currently see that we are in Wave A down and the immediate wave count is now A.c.3.iv, where wave iv should now trace out a complex correction.

I have some questions:
1) What wave count do you guys see as completed at 20655?
2) What relationships [fibonacci targets...] do you see as supporting the validity of that count?
3) What price levels would invalidate that count?
  • #286
  • Aug 19, 2007 12:49pm Aug 19, 2007 12:49pm
A spotted eagle owl just dropping in to show us his supper. Very proud of his chow.....
Attached Image
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #287
  • Aug 20, 2007 2:40am Aug 20, 2007 2:40am
hello evreyone in new week with new pips (i hope)!!
i made another analysis on cabl. if i have right then should achieve my target in next 2 days, if will trend go to my way.couse i think that cabl has went down enough.
nice day

http://www.trading-fx.si/forum/privatslike/fx01.gif
  • #288
  • Aug 20, 2007 1:46pm Aug 20, 2007 1:46pm
Hi elgrande

sorry if i post the chart on this way, because i would like everyone to see the details over there

The blue lines are fibo time zones, just give a look where will the retracement of this big cycle will end !!! as we finsih 5 cycles in terms of time according to fibo in terms of timing, then the line number 13 lies on 14-02-2010 , isn't going to be a very long down trend, specially USD index support that view :surprised

Many thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDFT.jpg Size: 34 KB
  • #289
  • Aug 20, 2007 11:33pm Aug 20, 2007 11:33pm
Hey EG,

On the 4 hr chart we are seeing classic 4th wave behaviour, with it trending sideways, building the base for the 5th wave down. I don't know at which point wave 4 will end but will speculate on around 9950/2. before dropping for 5.

At that point we will be at the end of wave C of larger wave A.

Looking at the pattern for the longer term, I think that because this larger A was a zig zag A-B-C the rest of the structure will be a Flat.

Regards.
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #290
  • Aug 21, 2007 3:00am Aug 21, 2007 3:00am
Hey EG,

You think wave 4 has bid us farewell and we are welcoming 5 down now? If it is then 4 never even hit 38.2% of 3. which I thought it would do at least. Or is this still part of 4's sideways movement.

I am long from 9840 so there is some drawdown here for me, If it is 5 then I might have to hedge till the end of 5, where ever that is? Possibly around 1.9500 area.

What you think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily.jpg Size: 37 KB
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #291
  • Aug 21, 2007 7:54am Aug 21, 2007 7:54am
My opinion is we are only in (I hate when someone else does it, gets a bit wavy crazy but) wave 4 of wave 3 of C.

Therefore I am looking for wave 5 bottom to complete on 60min, then look for a wave 4 on 240min and then a 5 wave on 60min to complete final wave 5 of wave C on 240min chart.
  • #292
  • Aug 21, 2007 2:14pm Aug 21, 2007 2:14pm
Quoting Clusterwise
Hi elgrande

sorry if i post the chart on this way, because i would like everyone to see the details over there

The blue lines are fibo time zones, just give a look where will the retracement of this big cycle will end !!! as we finsih 5 cycles in terms of time according to fibo in terms of timing, then the line number 13 lies on 14-02-2010 , isn't going to be a very long down trend, specially USD index support that view :surprised

Many thanks
Clusterwise thanks for shrring this chart , it is not to clear so if I may ask you to give the datets of were you started with the fibo time .
thank you.
  • #293
  • Aug 21, 2007 3:20pm Aug 21, 2007 3:20pm
Quoting africanpip
Hey EG,

You think wave 4 has bid us farewell and we are welcoming 5 down now? If it is then 4 never even hit 38.2% of 3. which I thought it would do at least. Or is this still part of 4's sideways movement.

I am long from 9840 so there is some drawdown here for me, If it is 5 then I might have to hedge till the end of 5, where ever that is? Possibly around 1.9500 area.

What you think?
Hi AP

On my side, I think Cable is still going up.
1st it has barely touchecd 38.2
2nd it has formed a FLAG that should later develop a THRUST UP.

I am personally not on this as I was concentrating more on GBPJPY, but on my chart this is what I see.

REference indicates that price will hit the channel sides 6 times then the 7th will result in a break out and that will be upwards.

So far I have counted just 4 now on my H4 chart.

EG
  • #294
  • Aug 21, 2007 3:31pm Aug 21, 2007 3:31pm
Finished C532C3
Developing C532C4 = Currently forming a BULL FLAG IN 4 HOUR CHART

Reference indicates price to hit flag channel 6 times. 7th thrust will be a breakout on the upside.

Have not really seen this proven yet but will watch how it develops on this pair now.

If price bounces on the lower channel for the 6th time later and does not breakout on the downside, I would think that as best position to enter a new Long for me.

Target if this breakout appears:
1.9938
1.9988
2.0020

EG
  • #295
  • Edited 4:40pm Aug 21, 2007 4:25pm | Edited 4:40pm
Quoting rnl16616
I would agree with the wave counts that have GBP/USD going much lower. On the daily chart, I currently see that we are in Wave A down and the immediate wave count is now A.c.3.iv, where wave iv should now trace out a complex correction.

I have some questions:
1) What wave count do you guys see as completed at 20655?
2) What relationships [fibonacci targets...] do you see as supporting the validity of that count?
3) What price levels would invalidate that count?
I have revised my Cable Count AFTER GOING THROUGH IT OVER AND OVER AGAIN.

Monthly - we are on a Wave C UP from 1.3680 June 2001 and that means we are in a 5 wave structure UP on the monthly chart

Weekly - We have finished Wave C2 and are already in a developing C3.
Inside C3, we have finished C34 and developing C35

Daily - Inside C35.... we have finished C352 and developing C353.

However, here is where I am stopped out. If I see that 2.0652 top as the end of my C3531...... ( this current drop till 1.9651 just 30 pips away from the 1.9621 low of my C352 in 2007 06 08 ) is threatening to alter my count.

4Hour chart - seeing end of C3531 @ 2.0652. Now developing the ABC structure of a Zigzag wave 2 inside C3532.

We seem to have finished up to wave B or C3532B and developing or just finished with C3532C.

This drop to 1.9651 is end of my C3532C3 at the moment.

Come to think of it..... if you did not ask, I would not have noticed this potential anomaly in my count. I won't be revising it till we breakout of the C352 level @ 1.9621.

This potential anomaly in my count is temporarily suggesting that

1. 1.9651 is still C3532C3 and that we are developing C3532C4 UP and that C3532C5 down will not go lower than C352 low of 1.9621.....

This means that we should start our ascent from 1.9621 for C3533 and consider new low as end of C3532C5 or the end of wave 2 inside C353.

Original count sees Cable finishing a wave 4 UP inside a wave C down. and waiting to start a nice descent for its wave 5 down. Which as many suggest and I too was thinking would either be the end of a much bigger Wave A or end of Wave 3 down.

If my current revised count is invalidated by a break lower than 1.9621, then I go back to seeing Cable move as played out by the Diagonal triangle as seen on the Weekly and Daily Chart

Otherwise, it is back to the Bull trend on Cable........... Then this should reflect the actual developments or the current crisis in the market.

Bearish dollar and probably back to the carry trades.....


EG
  • #296
  • Aug 21, 2007 4:51pm Aug 21, 2007 4:51pm
Quoting Clusterwise
Hi elgrande

sorry if i post the chart on this way, because i would like everyone to see the details over there

The blue lines are fibo time zones, just give a look where will the retracement of this big cycle will end !!! as we finsih 5 cycles in terms of time according to fibo in terms of timing, then the line number 13 lies on 14-02-2010 , isn't going to be a very long down trend, specially USD index support that view :surprised

Many thanks
Thank you Clusterwise for the chart. Your illustration depicting how tops and bottoms are related to fibo levels of Time is reminding me that I could afterall do that too in MT4 platform.

My previous count supports this Time Fib Level we are in now. But my current count aas of today ( if not invalidated by a break below 1.9621 ) will tend to see it as a sort of a small deviation like what we see on some earlier fib and swings on your chart.

I know that the swings may not necessarily land on the exact fib levels. They will just be within the vicinity and still we do not necessarily have to be wrong about it.

This are all just PROBABILITIES and I am like probably many too are just trying to come as close as possible to the exact point or price level at the exact time or nearest to it......

EG
  • #297
  • Edited 11:20pm Aug 21, 2007 5:00pm | Edited 11:20pm
Quoting money
hello evreyone in new week with new pips (i hope)!!
i made another analysis on cabl. if i have right then should achieve my target in next 2 days, if will trend go to my way.couse i think that cabl has went down enough.
nice day
Money,

How come your wave? numbers in Red circles seem to be suspect... I mean, if it is bearish then Waves 1 3 5 should be seen at the lower level.

Wve 1 should be lower than Wave 2 . wave 3 lower than wave 4. but yours in the chart are reversed.

just wondering here.

EG
  • #298
  • Aug 21, 2007 5:46pm Aug 21, 2007 5:46pm
I have revised my Cable Count AFTER GOING THROUGH IT OVER AND OVER AGAIN.

Monthly - we are on a Wave C UP from 1.3680 June 2001 and that means we are in a 5 wave structure UP on the monthly chart

I can see that you are quoting wave count positions but on what basis do you believe these counts are correct? Just to focus on one [above] why is this a Wave C? For example my current preferred count is that this is the start of a new impulse:
* Wave A is 24190/29Jan81 down to 10630/27Feb85
* Wave B is 10630/27Feb85 up to 18980/21Apr88
* Wave C is 18980/21Apr88 down to 13682/12Jun01

Wave B relates to A by 61.6% and C relates to A by 39% so my interpretation is that this is a truncated zig-zag, that completes the minimum 38.2% of the Wave A price movement. Clearly this count implies some power to the upside and it is possible to argue that we have seen that. Clearly a break below 13682 would absolutely invalidate the count that Wave 1 started at 13682.

I can see that what I have called Wave A could be 1 and that we are now in an ABC correction for Wave 2 is that how you arrived at the count that this is Wave C? If so, what leads you to the conclusion that it is a better count?
  • #299
  • Aug 21, 2007 6:03pm Aug 21, 2007 6:03pm
I don't think following EW has to be broken down to the lowest and highest levels of wave counts unless one is trading all the different timeframes. Just one level above and below the timeframe one is trading.

In other words if someone is trading the 60min chart watch the 240min and the 15min. Wave counts all the way out to monthly are not needed unless they are trading weekly charts.

Simple is better.
  • #300
  • Aug 22, 2007 12:50am Aug 22, 2007 12:50am
Quoting SunTrader
I don't think following EW has to be broken down to the lowest and highest levels of wave counts unless one is trading all the different timeframes. Just one level above and below the timeframe one is trading.

In other words if someone is trading the 60min chart watch the 240min and the 15min. Wave counts all the way out to monthly are not needed unless they are trading weekly charts.

Simple is better.
Agreed, however it is good to know what the bigger picture is. It doesn't change all that quickly but to reference the large time frames from time to time, to keep in mind the larger trends is a good practice.

I use use the 1hr and 4hr mainly and the daily a little less often. below the 1 hr is just noise in my opinion.
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
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