Cable Update (GBPUSD) | Page 43437 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

GBP/USD

Similar Threads

Cable Update - Continued 118 replies

Cable Update (GBP/USD) without Idiots 25 replies

cable short for gbpusd? 10 replies

Why is GBPUSD called cable? 76 replies

Cable (GBPUSD) vs Euro (EURUSD) 31 replies

Attachments: Cable Update (GBPUSD)
Exit Attachments

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #868,721
  • Nov 17, 2025 6:41am Nov 17, 2025 6:41am
Quoting Georginson
Trade Idea with no Obligation to follow... Expected Distance for November is 450 pips, so far we have 206 pips (1.3009 -1.3215), while there is 244 pips left to complete the expected distance. Simulations below: 1.3009 + 450 pips = 1.3459 1.3215 - 450 pips = 1.2765 This means either 1.3459 or 1.2765 will likely be seen. Trade Idea: Sell anywhere from 1.3170 to 1.3200 with tight stop at 1.3220, target 1.2815. Note: Should price touch or trade above 1.3220 with 8 trade days left, then you have the biggest clue it will attack 1.3459. in summary only...
Thanks. I see 3 swing trades from 1.3009:

1. A run from 1.30 - 1.3350
2. A correction back to the Weekly Pivot
3. A bounce off the Weekly Pivot to 1.3459

Let's see how it plays out.
  • #868,722
  • Nov 17, 2025 7:02am Nov 17, 2025 7:02am
CABLE

We're in a consolidation phase.
Price is coiling tightly within a narrow range, reflecting a market in a state of equilibrium.
It's the market pausing to digest last week's swings and positioning for a significant directional move.

The catalyst for that move?
A stacked calendar of high-impact events from both sides of the pond.
This is a heavy data week, and market direction may only become clearer mid-week or later.

The Setup: Why Accumulation Makes Sense
The price action we're seeing is classic pre-volatility behavior:
Energy Buildup: The tight range represents a volatility squeeze. Like compressing a spring, this builds pent-up energy that is typically released in a powerful, directional move.
Smart Money Positioning: During these phases, institutional traders ("smart money") are quietly building their positions, using the available liquidity from range-bound scalpers.
Last Week's Context: Last week's expansion that took out key highs and lows has likely established the broader battlefield.
We are now seeing the market consolidate within those extremes.
The Catalysts: Your High-Impact Event Schedule

This isn't just one event to watch; it's a sequential release of critical data.
Manufacturing, jobs, housing and inflation expectations will shape sentiment, especially the FOMC Minutes and Nonfarm Payrolls. (I'll reference the attached calendar for the specific list below).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: calender.jpg Size: 57 KB



Wednesday's Focus (GBP): The spotlight starts with the UK CPI (Inflation) y/y.
This is the Bank of England's primary concern. A hot print will revive bets on BoE hawkishness, boosting the Pound.

Thursday's Fireworks (USD): This is the potential volatility peak.
Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, & Average Hourly Earnings: The holy trinity of US labor data.
FOMC Meeting Minutes: Provides critical context for the Fed's future rate decisions.
Trading Implication: This cluster of events will heavily define the USD's trajectory for the short term. Expect some volatility.

Friday's Confirmation (GU): The week ends with a simultaneous look at the health of both economies via Retail Sales, PMIs, and Consumer Sentiment.
This day often serves to confirm or contradict the trends established on Thursday.
Trading Strategy: Navigating the Week


Patience is Key. Do not jump the gun. With direction likely only clarifying mid-week or later, wait for the fundamental story to develop.
Map Your Levels: Identify the clear highs and lows of the current consolidation range.
A decisive break and close above/below this range is your signal.
Wait for the Dust to Settle: The first spike after news is often erratic.
A higher-probability entry can be found by waiting for a pullback to re-test the broken level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 205.jpg Size: 128 KB


Summary:
We are in a classic accumulation phase before a major volatility expansion.
Expect some volatility as the market digests this heavy data week.
Trade safe and manage your risk, especially around these events.

What's your bias for the breakout?
Are you leaning towards a GBP surge on hot inflation, or a USD rally on a strong jobs report?
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #868,723
  • Nov 17, 2025 7:30am Nov 17, 2025 7:30am
What's your bias for the breakout? Are you leaning towards a GBP surge on hot inflation, or a USD rally on a strong jobs report?[/quote]


A rejection from one of two daily FVGs, preferably the upper one.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_SBDaily.png Size: 16 KB
  • #868,724
  • Nov 17, 2025 8:54am Nov 17, 2025 8:54am
Quoting Pat Chiko
CABLE We're in a consolidation phase. Price is coiling tightly within a narrow range, reflecting a market in a state of equilibrium. It's the market pausing to digest last week's swings and positioning for a significant directional move. The catalyst for that move? A stacked calendar of high-impact events from both sides of the pond. This is a heavy data week, and market direction may only become clearer mid-week or later. The Setup: Why Accumulation Makes Sense The price action we're seeing is classic pre-volatility behavior: Energy Buildup: The...
from current price action,
30m/1H is forming uptrend ,
i still thinking it will headed to 3250 first before any reaction for drop
first target was Friday high
i may wrong
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU.png Size: 21 KB
PA Return Today: 0.3%
  • #868,725
  • Nov 17, 2025 8:55am Nov 17, 2025 8:55am
...came back to desk to update charts, and see what I missed. I see that 1hr/4hr spike from Fri strikes again, the 4th 1hr rejection of the resulting prev 1hr sw hi zone = prev res x 4 = pot res. The current downside p/back of the day's current main AL/CDL-CDH up-move, like the 1st today from 3181, being quite deep, (> 50%,) relative to the said move. 2nd 1hr upside b/o of AH, was false but no b/o either way of YH or YL yet.

1hr below

...

5min below
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 20 KB
Trader with an Edge.
  • #868,726
  • Nov 17, 2025 9:30am Nov 17, 2025 9:30am
Sheesh, what a slow day at the office... Was gonna trade CAD but was late to the news.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Adsız.png Size: 592 KB
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #868,727
  • Nov 17, 2025 9:38am Nov 17, 2025 9:38am
Quoting Georginson
Trade Idea with no Obligation to follow... Expected Distance for November is 450 pips, so far we have 206 pips (1.3009 -1.3215), while there is 244 pips left to complete the expected distance. Simulations below: 1.3009 + 450 pips = 1.3459 1.3215 - 450 pips = 1.2765 This means either 1.3459 or 1.2765 will likely be seen. Trade Idea: Sell anywhere from 1.3170 to 1.3200 with tight stop at 1.3220, target 1.2815. Note: Should price touch or trade above 1.3220 with 8 trade days left, then you have the biggest clue it will attack 1.3459. in summary only...
Just 13 more days to complete the monthly pips expectation. Its going to be an aggressive move. Alternatively, for the 1st time in several months, price will not complete the monthly expectation which is very difficult to believe.

This is not funny.
Market Structure is the King.....
  • #868,728
  • Nov 17, 2025 9:39am Nov 17, 2025 9:39am
Quoting msqk
This range is squeezing patience to the drop, however at the end of it all something must happen time is an open answer to that. @3150 for ...... up during Asia triggered, a small bite though with a room to scale in if I'm in the right direction.
@3171 add on triggered for Friday's high and Last week high.
MARKET ABHORS LAZINESS,DOING MY HOMEWORK ....
  • #868,729
  • Nov 17, 2025 10:07am Nov 17, 2025 10:07am
Quoting birdland
h4 rejection candles from important 1.3140 support. also from 50% fibo and from daily 38% fibo. these are very bullish signs for longterm {image}

GU m15, as expected blue zone was a good area to buy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.png Size: 21 KB
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #868,730
  • Nov 17, 2025 10:50am Nov 17, 2025 10:50am
Closing the Yen pairs for the day:

UJ 65p
GJ 85p
EJ 45p

New entries in tomorrow's EU session. Rest of the trades still open.
  • #868,731
  • Nov 17, 2025 2:12pm Nov 17, 2025 2:12pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.png Size: 16 KB
yes yes yes
  • #868,732
  • Nov 17, 2025 2:26pm Nov 17, 2025 2:26pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
CABLE We're in a consolidation phase. Price is coiling tightly within a narrow range, reflecting a market in a state of equilibrium. It's the market pausing to digest last week's swings and positioning for a significant directional move.
Energy Buildup: The tight range represents a volatility squeeze. Like compressing a spring, this builds pent-up energy that is typically released in a powerful, directional move.
Smart Money Positioning: During these phases, institutional traders ("smart money") are quietly building their positions, using...
Quoting LeongPuiy
{quote} from current price action, 30m/1H is forming uptrend , i still thinking it will headed to 3250 first before any reaction for drop first target was Friday high i may wrong {image}

CABLE

The market is playing out exactly as we anticipated: a tight consolidation followed by a volatile reaction to data.
We correctly identified the bearish pressures from fiscal concerns and the dovish BoE, which led to the move downwards, breaking the range as we discussed.

This initial breakdown might not be what it seems.

Consolidation: Where the "Big Boys" Play
First, let's address the foundational point: "price in consolidation is where institutional traders are most active with high volume traded."
While retail traders often find tight ranges "boring," this is precisely when institutional activity is at its peak.

Stealth Positioning: They cannot enter large orders at one price without moving the market against themselves.
Instead, they accumulate (or distribute) their massive positions within a range, slicing up their large orders to avoid detection.

High Volume, Low Volatility: This is the signature of institutional activity.
The volume is high because large orders are being filled, but the price doesn't go anywhere because the buying and selling pressure are in relative equilibrium. They are building their inventory for the next big move.

The Liquidity Grab: A Bullish Deception?
The current price action: "price are trying to get all liquidity to the sell side before picking up to the upside."
This is a classic market maneuver often called a "liquidity grab" or "stop hunt."


The Obvious Narrative: The bearish CPI/Budget story was clear.
The market broke down, triggering all the sell-stops below the consolidation range.
This is the "liquidity to the sell side."
It's a pool of guaranteed orders (retail stops, algorithmic sells) that the big players can sell into to fill their own orders.

The Hidden Motive: What if the institutions, after accumulating a long position in the range, used the bearish news to engineer a false breakdown?
They sell just enough to push the price down, trigger the panic selling and stop-losses, and then buy up all that cheap liquidity.

The Reversal Signal: If this is the case, the breakdown will be short-lived.
The price will not sustain the move lower.
Instead, we will see a powerful, sharp reversal back into and above the prior consolidation range.
This move will squeeze the late short-sellers who just entered and confirm that the bears have been trapped.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 206.jpg Size: 157 KB



The potential reversal is the market's "smart money" exploiting that reaction for profit and positioning for the next move.


End note :
We must now be agile.
The easy bearish move might have already happened.
The sophisticated play is now watching for a reversal.

The institutions may have used the bearish news to fuel a sell-side liquidity grab, positioning for a surprising move to the upside.
Stay alert.
The next candle could be the most important one of the week.

A genuine breakdown or a cunning bull trap?
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #868,733
  • Nov 17, 2025 2:32pm Nov 17, 2025 2:32pm
What's the most painful thing that can happen to a person ?

....asking for a friend
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #868,734
  • Nov 17, 2025 7:02pm Nov 17, 2025 7:02pm
Quoting Abeylyn
{quote} Just 13 more days to complete the monthly pips expectation. Its going to be an aggressive move. Alternatively, for the 1st time in several months, price will not complete the monthly expectation which is very difficult to believe. This is not funny.
We have 9 trade days left, which is enough time to still complete it as we have many big News coming up Wednesday to Friday.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #868,735
  • Nov 17, 2025 9:11pm Nov 17, 2025 9:11pm
Quoting pat chiko
what's the most painful thing that can happen to a person ? ....asking for a friend
when someone suddenly realize that his hope is just an illusion, most especially at an old age.
Market Structure is the King.....
  • #868,736
  • Nov 17, 2025 9:23pm Nov 17, 2025 9:23pm
Quoting Abeylyn
{quote} UPDATE ON GBPUSD It is important for me to state this mind boardering observation that was noticed last week. Last week market performance happened to be the worst since US data has been held. So sad that after waiting behind the system for 4 days, the only trade of the week was sighted on Friday and despite the fact that I was aware of the entry zone stated in my chart that was posted earlier... 1.3110/18, I was not still able to make entry. This was because the entry was very aggressive with a touch and bounce of a single candlestick....
Good day friends and buddies,

My trade entry on GU is still running. Entry at 1.3138 found resistant at 1.3190. That's a whooping 52 pips to my advantage. Already taken 1st profit at 4hr ATR which is 40 pips while I expect the other running trade to breakout to the upside.

For me, it's just a free run risk free trade ATM.

I am still bullish and have not seen any reason to Sell.

Always remember that market can do whatever it feels and risk management is key.

Have a nice day trading.
Market Structure is the King.....
  • #868,737
  • Nov 17, 2025 11:20pm Nov 17, 2025 11:20pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
What's the most painful thing that can happen to a person ? ....asking for a friend
for me ot was watching Zebi and Wavegarrick going LONG as the GU dived...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 67d2303ff091df3fa438f4e699848d5f.jpg Size: 49 KB
  • #868,738
  • Nov 17, 2025 11:24pm Nov 17, 2025 11:24pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} for me ot was watching Zebi and Wavegarrick going LONG as the GU dived...{image}
3 of you guys enjoy your jokes while we watch. Anyone that comes in between will be crushed
Market Structure is the King.....
  • #868,739
  • Nov 17, 2025 11:38pm Nov 17, 2025 11:38pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} for me ot was watching Zebi and Wavegarrick going LONG as the GU dived...{image}
Live trade ~ GBPUSD only. No chart! Follow at your own risk!
  • #868,740
  • Nov 17, 2025 11:44pm Nov 17, 2025 11:44pm
Quoting Abeylyn
{quote} 3 of you guys enjoy your jokes while we watch. Anyone that comes in between will be crushed
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ea2d9a47c400359e8afd22d1a3b172cc.jpg Size: 58 KB
956 traders viewing now