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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #868,701
  • Nov 17, 2025 2:25am Nov 17, 2025 2:25am
G/M, 4th 1hr attempt to get north of the prev 1hr sw hi zone = prev res x 3 = pot res that extends up to fri's 3200 hi now, (YH,) again meeting supply to result in a false 1st upside b/o of today's AH.

1hr below

...rangy/contractionary on 1hr, probably 4hr too right now? Intraday bullish so far. Those 'spikey' candles (both ends) on 1hr and 4hr from early in London session on fri still having influence re supp/res in the spikes. No Fri Hi (YH) -or- lo(YL) b/o yet, or indeed LWH or LWL. Today's AL is presently the CDL.

4hr, with 10/20/40 ema crosses graphic, below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #868,702
  • Nov 17, 2025 2:43am Nov 17, 2025 2:43am
This range is squeezing patience to the drop, however at the end of it all something must happen time is an open answer to that.
@3150 for ...... up during Asia triggered, a small bite though with a room to scale in if I'm in the right direction.
MARKET ABHORS LAZINESS,DOING MY HOMEWORK ....
  • #868,703
  • Nov 17, 2025 2:55am Nov 17, 2025 2:55am
DXY H4. I see PA playing out inside these zones for the remainder of 2025.
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  • #868,704
  • Nov 17, 2025 2:56am Nov 17, 2025 2:56am
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  • #868,705
  • Nov 17, 2025 3:00am Nov 17, 2025 3:00am
...turning to the dly t/f, above 3216 LWH, there are coexistent/overlapping prev sw lo zones=pot sbr (the 2nd a test on the 1st as pot supp,) starting @ 3247, then 3287 respectively, that extend to circa 3310. They contain fibs and maybe some calculated pivots too, (haven't looked yet.)

Dly below.
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #868,706
  • Nov 17, 2025 3:26am Nov 17, 2025 3:26am
This current 1 hr bullish candle is a sign of bullish continuation
  • #868,707
  • Edited 3:49am Nov 17, 2025 3:37am | Edited 3:49am
Quoting AlfieSolomon
This current 1 hr bullish candle is a sign of bullish continuation
Hi. You won't be saying that is it closes bearishly at top of this hour lol!
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...dip down from CDH finds demand @ the Dly Pivot/50% of the AL/CDL to CDH move, for another run-up to challenge this wide prev 1hr sw hi zone = prev res x 3 = pot res that extends up to 3200 YH. Could see supply emerge anywhere in it? How strong are the £ bulls?

Could you make an argument for some sort of ascending triangle pattern on 1hr?

Edit: added re asc tri.

1hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #868,708
  • Nov 17, 2025 3:47am Nov 17, 2025 3:47am
Trade Idea with no Obligation to follow...

Expected Distance for November is 450 pips, so far we have 206 pips (1.3009 -1.3215), while there is 244 pips left to complete the expected distance.

Simulations below:
1.3009 + 450 pips = 1.3459
1.3215 - 450 pips = 1.2765

This means either 1.3459 or 1.2765 will likely be seen.

Trade Idea: Sell anywhere from 1.3170 to 1.3200 with tight stop at 1.3220, target 1.2815.

Note: Should price touch or trade above 1.3220 with 8 trade days left, then you have the biggest clue it will attack 1.3459. in summary only above 1.3220 with 8 trade days left will invalidate 1.2815.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #868,709
  • Nov 17, 2025 4:17am Nov 17, 2025 4:17am
...gmt+2hrs price feed 4hr candle closed as a bullish multi-engulf x 2, less than 1/2hr ago, but bulls presently still struggling to get north of that wide prev 1hr sw hi x 4 now = pot res zone that extends up to YH @ 3100, encountering more supply in it just shy of the CDH.

4hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #868,710
  • Nov 17, 2025 4:34am Nov 17, 2025 4:34am
Quoting Georginson
Trade Idea with no Obligation to follow... Expected Distance for November is 450 pips, so far we have 206 pips (1.3009 -1.3215), while there is 244 pips left to complete the expected distance. Simulations below: 1.3009 + 450 pips = 1.3459 1.3215 - 450 pips = 1.2765 This means either 1.3459 or 1.2765 will likely be seen. Trade Idea: Sell anywhere from 1.3170 to 1.3200 with tight stop at 1.3220, target 1.2815. Note: Should price touch or trade above 1.3220 with 8 trade days left, then you have the biggest clue it will attack 1.3459. in summary only...
This is interesting.

A contrarian to my own analysis targeting the monthly.

Nice 1. bro.
Market Structure is the King.....
  • #868,711
  • Nov 17, 2025 4:45am Nov 17, 2025 4:45am
Quoting Georginson
Trade Idea with no Obligation to follow... Expected Distance for November is 450 pips, so far we have 206 pips (1.3009 -1.3215), while there is 244 pips left to complete the expected distance. Simulations below: 1.3009 + 450 pips = 1.3459 1.3215 - 450 pips = 1.2765 This means either 1.3459 or 1.2765 will likely be seen. Trade Idea: Sell anywhere from 1.3170 to 1.3200 with tight stop at 1.3220, target 1.2815. Note: Should price touch or trade above 1.3220 with 8 trade days left, then you have the biggest clue it will attack 1.3459. in summary only...
Hi. Yeah, only 44% of 6mth amr traveled so far this month. It's a scenario - and anything can happen.
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I'm guessing that the longer t/f players (particularly 4hr+ triggers) are' pulling their hair out' with this present ranginess/contractive market. For some of us on the shorter t/f's, it's business as usual range or trend, it doesn't matter. Will we see any meaningful upside follow-thru re that last 4hr close mentioned in a post above?

1hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #868,712
  • Nov 17, 2025 4:56am Nov 17, 2025 4:56am
... the majority of PA in the most local 30min range is on chart below, between the lines,

30min below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #868,713
  • Nov 17, 2025 5:00am Nov 17, 2025 5:00am
DXY price now above 99.250, and staying above the SMA20 on H4, so it's bullish for me now.
  • #868,714
  • Nov 17, 2025 5:07am Nov 17, 2025 5:07am
...it couldn't be any more rangy up to 1hr....it's range-tastic!!!! 54% of 30day adr traveled so far today. (That metric is up off 80 to 82 today after a recent hi of 119 not so long ago.) Can you find order in what appears to be randomness?

1hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #868,715
  • Nov 17, 2025 5:18am Nov 17, 2025 5:18am
Taking some partial profits:

UJ 33p
GJ 58p
EJ 30p
AUDCAD 32p
NZDCAD 20p
EURAUD 32P
EURNZD 30P
  • #868,716
  • Nov 17, 2025 5:19am Nov 17, 2025 5:19am
...you will see on my dly trigger chart below that price is/has been unwinding from an o/s read on the oscillators @ that 3010 CML. Next fractal swing to the upside (as it stands now,) will be a HH, if it happens

Dly below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #868,717
  • Nov 17, 2025 5:34am Nov 17, 2025 5:34am
Quoting Headland
...you will see on my dly trigger chart below that price is/has been unwinding from an o/s read on the oscillators @ that 3010 CML. Next fractal swing to the upside (as it stands now,) will be a HH, if it happens Dly below {image}
Thanks, on the H4, this single candle (DXY) presents a problem for the bulls, price will almost immediately bounce back up if it enters that zone.
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  • #868,718
  • Nov 17, 2025 5:43am Nov 17, 2025 5:43am
Quoting Guy1969
{quote} Thanks, on the H4, this single candle (DXY) presents a problem for the bulls, price will almost immediately bounce back up if it enters that zone. {image}
Hi, thanks. not something I ordinarily look at, the Dxy, but yeah, a nice 'spikey' candle and there could well be residual demand in it if retested from above.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #868,719
  • Nov 17, 2025 5:46am Nov 17, 2025 5:46am
Quoting msqk
This range is squeezing patience to the drop, however at the end of it all something must happen time is an open answer to that. @3150 for ...... up during Asia triggered, a small bite though with a room to scale in if I'm in the right direction.
Friday's IB violation could break the boredom, .............
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MARKET ABHORS LAZINESS,DOING MY HOMEWORK ....
  • #868,720
  • Nov 17, 2025 6:00am Nov 17, 2025 6:00am
...1hr bullish multi-engulf x 3 close, and 2nd 1hr upside b/o of today's AH to a notional new CDH, and price is right back into that wide pot 1hr res zone that has hindered the bulls from more upside north of 3200 YH, 4 times now re the 1hr t/f. Nice,! but how strong are the bulls this time,? and is the supply in that zone becoming eroded with all the tests of it?

1hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
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