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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #868,661
  • Nov 15, 2025 3:02pm Nov 15, 2025 3:02pm
Upside Fibs (assuming a 3010 lo.)

In the event of more upside these are the untested fib retraces I have for major 4hr+ swing hi's (including and starting @ 3788 CYH,) all to 3010 swing lo, down moves, going up a couple of hundred pips or so. Obviously some are potentially more significant than others.

3525
3242

3266
3270

3284 38.2% 3726-3010
3285

3297
3306 38.2% 3788-3010
3317

3328
3335
Trader with an Edge.
  • #868,662
  • Nov 15, 2025 9:58pm Nov 15, 2025 9:58pm
Quoting Abouelzelouf
I find the price action from last Friday very strange, up and down many times from support to resistance and sometimes it jumped few pips in one time. The Pound might keep range in these 200 pips or so in the coming weeks, but you never know it all depends nowadays on what side of the bed Trumps wake-up!
I think most of it was due to flow of money form gilts, US t-bill were up and down too with all the fed shutdown data vacuum drama. Whenever I have seen this before the bond markets have been bipolar or the vix is up. Flow of cash through bond markets is huge.
US 10 Year, 30 year was the same (30 minute)
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UK Gilt 10 (30 minute)
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Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...al-2025-11-14/
  • #868,663
  • Edited 12:45am Nov 16, 2025 12:33am | Edited 12:45am
Quoting Abeylyn
{quote} {image} Price touched the entry zone and bounced up but unfortunately, the entry is too aggressive. There may be a strong fight at that entry zone. It is not suppose to be an aggressive entry. In a nutshell, MM moves prices to any direction. No matter how knowledgeable a trader, you might identify area where reaction may likely occur but cannot force MM to move to a direction. What a market.
UPDATE ON GBPUSD

It is important for me to state this mind boardering observation that was noticed last week. Last week market performance happened to be the worst since US data has been held.

So sad that after waiting behind the system for 4 days, the only trade of the week was sighted on Friday and despite the fact that I was aware of the entry zone stated in my chart that was posted earlier... 1.3110/18, I was not still able to make entry. This was because the entry was very aggressive with a touch and bounce of a single candlestick.

The irony was that on last Tuesday, similar set up was sighted where I refused to Sell from the Top but waited to Buy at Buy zone, unfortunately price bounce off my Buy and hit the Stoploss to create an extended B while Sellers from Top made good money. That was the trade where Pat Chiko sold from the top and I gave a comment ... That I am aware it's a Sell zone but I will not Sell..

Basically, I uses knowledge of market structure based on my personal observation. Coreg and Pat Chiko do similar things but in a different way.

Above all, I have come to conclusion that no matter how knowledgeable and professional a retail trader, market want a trader to trade like AI or Robot. Set and Forget and Take Profit or loss accordingly as market allocate.

I also hold an opinion that for now, Forex cannot be used as a main source of income as we use to do. There is the need to have a side hustle to prevent heart attack. No risk management strategy can solve the problem because market now allocate not based on experience and ability but at random. This is my personal opinion...

In this new week, I am still bullish and will be willing to Buy if price can pullback to 1.3138/40. Stoploss below 1.3100. This should be a long term trade of about 300 to 400 pips to cover the monthly ATR Value.

I have been trading actively since 2006 and have also traded as a Fund Manager for a Small Fund based in US before now.

If anybody in the thread including Friends and Buddies has a contrary opinion, please come up and let's trade together here... Don't talk about me paying subscription for a service because I don't believe in it. I have seen enough to know better. And I will be willing to learn and change my personal opinion if I am convinced viewing other traders strategy and performance. Just a trade call before market execution is fine. No need to expose your personal strategy if it's against your wish. Someone should come up please.....

Let me add that Both I and Pat Chiko did not perform well though I took it upon myself as a competition between us due to his own attitude to me. I have lifted my own to learn from him and wish him good luck.

Trading for good 5 days without anything to show for it is highly frustrating....

Watching out for pullback to 1.3138/40 to Buy.

Thanks and have a nice week ahead my dear friends, buddies and other well wishers.
Market Structure is the King.....
  • #868,664
  • Nov 16, 2025 2:20am Nov 16, 2025 2:20am
Inserted Video
  • #868,665
  • Edited 10:03am Nov 16, 2025 9:18am | Edited 10:03am
Quoting Abeylyn
{quote} UPDATE ON GBPUSD It is important for me to state this mind boardering observation that was noticed last week. ....
Hi, sorry to hear of your recent experiences re trading. Basically though, nothing in the market has changed. Yes, last week was a small range <13wk awr week, so probably frustrating for particularly 4hr+ traders I would think, and Friday was a 'contractionary' day after the early madness, but really, nothing has changed. You need what you always needed; A proven Trading Edge with a positive expectancy, that is net profitable over a given constant sample size of trades, (see my post above this one replying to Mr.Fanciful,) risk and trade management optimised to it, the pertinent stats about it, and to have developed the necessary personal psychology to actually trade it profitably.

Re looking to trade someone else's calls, don't do it! Take Yngwie for eg who makes trade calls here; 1. They are very often a few pips late, (to be expected in a threaded forum format, particularly when you have to refresh the browser to get fresh content - which is less than optimum for such an activity.) 2. He goes for periods not being here, and 3. You don't know how he generates them, (his edge,) or indeed (I assume,) have empirical documented evidence of his actual net profitability over whatsoever representative sample size(s.) Stick to your own/an edge developed by you.

Also, forget about Pat Chiko. Yes learn what you can from him (and others') postings, but that, you would be best advised, should be the extent of it. He, and all of us here are your competitors. I would not share my edge here, it is an asset of my trading business and has value, so I am not about to ever give it away gratis. I assume others may think the same. Re trade calls, for my style of trading and re the t/f's I most use as a trigger for trade entry/exit, I would not use a threaded forum format to communicate them, and if ever I was going to do it, I would charge a lot of money for them.

As always, I wish you well too.

EDIT: typo/added a bit.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #868,666
  • Nov 16, 2025 12:07pm Nov 16, 2025 12:07pm
Quoting Headland
{quote} Hi, sorry to hear of your recent experiences re trading. Basically though, nothing in the market has changed. Yes, last week was a small range <13wk awr week, so probably frustrating for particularly 4hr+ traders I would think, and Friday was a 'contractionary' day after the early madness, but really, nothing has changed. You need what you always needed; A proven Trading Edge with a positive expectancy, that is net profitable over a given constant sample size of trades, (see my post above this one replying to Mr.Fanciful,) risk and trade...
Thanks dear Great Friend.

I got all the key points.

My mind is made up to trade my own strategy with my edge. Talking about learning is like trying to see people that forms same/ similar opinion using different methods but not copying anyone....

My strategy that produced heavy profits in the past failed to give a Single penny after last week of trading and that gives a serious concern which made me form an opinion.

To have a change of opinion, I need someone who can give a trade call just like mine so that we follow the market together... No need to disclose ones strategy.... I am not also changing my strategy or copy the call but at least to clarify that my own opinion as regards Forex market is false. Just Entry price , stop and TP.

Except there is a conviction from someone else, I will continue to believe Forex is a difficult profession for now.

Go to my thread, Thebillionairesclub to see my past performance then......... why can't I continue what I did severally ?

l understand and respect intention to keep one edge as a secret though I don't believe any successful trader should charge subscription... That I strongly detest...

Just pouring out my mind and thanks for the concern.

Thanks so much and have a good night rest.
Market Structure is the King.....
  • #868,667
  • Nov 16, 2025 12:23pm Nov 16, 2025 12:23pm
Quoting MrFanciful
So I think I need some help. I’ve got a strategy that really seems to work. Every day I go home and use cTraders backtesting features to go over the day and trade it, strictly adhering to my entry requirements, trend direction etc etc. I tend to make a decent profit. Not every day but most days. However, when I’m trading in real time, whether on live or on demo, I can’t stick to the strategy. The market just moves too slowly and I get thoughts of “this could be the bottom of the pull back” and enter when it doesn’t fit my criteria. This doesn’t...
I just saw your post friend after Headland informed.

Also had an issue that got me frustrated. Even with the best of the strategy, market may decide not to compensate a trader following necessary patient and using all parameters.

It becomes an issue of concern when 2 or 3 trades in a row come out as a loss after over-headed patient and time wasted.

Headland is very much correct. Real success comes from activities taken from large sample but my patient is running out...

Good luck friend.
Market Structure is the King.....
  • #868,668
  • Nov 16, 2025 1:54pm Nov 16, 2025 1:54pm
Heads up. The September non-farm payrolls report will be released on Nov 20

https://investinglive.com/news/the-s...v-20-20251114/
  • #868,669
  • Nov 16, 2025 3:18pm Nov 16, 2025 3:18pm
Quoting Ferna
{quote} The trick is to have no stops and tp to begin with. You must train your mind to always be sure about what you are doing. You are training yourself to take small losses and small profits. While you should train yourself to take no losses and big profits.
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  • #868,670
  • Nov 16, 2025 3:57pm Nov 16, 2025 3:57pm
The GBPUSD price action on the H4 time frame made a triangular northward consolidation after a southward breakdown of the 1.31850 horizontal support. Technically, we will likely see a southward turnaround of price action after a strong bearish breakdown of the triangle.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #868,671
  • Nov 16, 2025 4:56pm Nov 16, 2025 4:56pm
I'm rather liking cable for long (notwithstanding ma headwinds on daily chart). And EU long too. The ECB has played all the cards it has to play, whereas BOE has room to move and the last vote was very close to cutting rates. Plus inclined to think the NFP data will not be kind to the USD.
  • #868,672
  • Edited 5:40pm Nov 16, 2025 5:10pm | Edited 5:40pm
Quoting Jade Gate
I'm rather liking cable for long (notwithstanding ma headwinds on daily chart). And EU long too. The ECB has played all the cards it has to play, whereas BOE has room to move and the last vote was very close to cutting rates. Plus inclined to think the NFP data will not be kind to the USD.
if it pulls back deep enough i'm with you .... ps, might not get as deep as shown on chart
PS ..... AUS 200 looks the dogs bollocks for 350 handles north... even more if it can take Friday lows.. just my 2cents btw
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  • #868,673
  • Nov 16, 2025 5:28pm Nov 16, 2025 5:28pm
is it just me or does anyone else get emails like this ??
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  • #868,674
  • Nov 16, 2025 5:35pm Nov 16, 2025 5:35pm
Quoting T721
is it just me or does anyone else get emails like this ?? {image} {image}
Are those Zebi's aliases?
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #868,675
  • Nov 16, 2025 5:35pm Nov 16, 2025 5:35pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} Are those Zebi's aliases?
  • #868,676
  • Nov 16, 2025 6:27pm Nov 16, 2025 6:27pm
[quote=Ferna;15472712]{quote} The trick is to have no stops and tp to begin with. You must train your mind to always be sure about what you are doing. You are training yourself to take small losses and small profits. While you should train yourself to take no losses and big profits.[/quo

Hnnnn!

(1) Yes, I will train my mind to be double sure and more confident.
(2) No loss but more more profit....

Anyway, i will try to do the best. That last week was just too frustrating and there is the need for me to cry out.

Waiting to see price reaction @ 1.3138 to Buy.... TP is monthly ATR Value... That is more more profit.

Thanks and nice week trading.
Market Structure is the King.....
  • #868,677
  • Nov 16, 2025 7:03pm Nov 16, 2025 7:03pm
Quoting T721
is it just me or does anyone else get emails like this ?? {image} {image}
Just trying to get into yer sporran Terry, payem nomind.
Inserted Video
  • #868,678
  • Nov 16, 2025 7:26pm Nov 16, 2025 7:26pm
Quoting mallee
{quote} Just trying to get into yer sporran Terry, payem nomind. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjbUvKYo3zg
  • #868,679
  • Nov 16, 2025 8:39pm Nov 16, 2025 8:39pm
evronne buy gbpuusd aass muc as poosble hold till 1.32300
  • #868,680
  • Nov 16, 2025 8:39pm Nov 16, 2025 8:39pm
The H4 and M30 TF's are critical to my intraday strategy, and right now there are defintely bears incoming on M30. IF GU drops below 1.310, then my longs will scale in from 1.3085
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Ahsan