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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #868,481
  • Nov 13, 2025 10:37am Nov 13, 2025 10:37am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Here's to another BULL day on the EU... {image}
Thanks Zebi for DM, all that praise made me blush...
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Don't worry I won't post it for all to see...
  • #868,482
  • Edited 10:49am Nov 13, 2025 10:39am | Edited 10:49am
I'll be buying tomorrow. I saw the signs but didn't listen to it. Nothing stops price from hitting 4hr 200MA at approx 3300 tomorrow if it wants to.
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  • #868,483
  • Nov 13, 2025 11:02am Nov 13, 2025 11:02am
Quoting Abeylyn
{quote} The Bull may likely come in at 4hr Support point D after the bear ( C ) must have completed the current face. It should be turn by turn . Guesssing....
My Stoploss hit at 3110.

Waste of time and effort.
Market Structure is the King.....
  • #868,484
  • Nov 13, 2025 11:05am Nov 13, 2025 11:05am
Quoting Abeylyn
{quote} My Stoploss hit at 3110. Waste of time and effort.

i believe you forced yourself to accpt the sell regardless if you have been against it this week
Keep the Lights on then you can catch the rise from the dark.
  • #868,485
  • Nov 13, 2025 11:08am Nov 13, 2025 11:08am
A key moment coming up...
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  • #868,486
  • Nov 13, 2025 11:14am Nov 13, 2025 11:14am
Quoting Marbas
Someeone explain me please why this shit is jumping back and rising after all red GDP data?
Short answer
The Analogy
Think of it like knowing a storm is coming.
You sell all your outdoor furniture days in advance (the market drop).

When the storm finally hits, your furniture is already gone.
The storm itself is no surprise.
Then, you immediately start planning and buying lumber for the repairs and sunny days ahead (the market rally on hope for rate cuts).

I post a bit long answer after this
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #868,487
  • Nov 13, 2025 11:18am Nov 13, 2025 11:18am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Short answer The Analogy Think of it like knowing a storm is coming. You sell all your outdoor furniture days in advance (the market drop). When the storm finally hits, your furniture is already gone. The storm itself is no surprise. Then, you immediately start planning and buying lumber for the repairs and sunny days ahead (the market rally on hope for rate cuts). I post a bit long answer after this
Bit detailed

This is a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" (or in this case, "sell the rumor, buy the news") event.

The breakdown:
The Setup (Pricing In): Everyone knew the GDP data was going to be bad.
The market sold off in the days/weeks before the release in anticipation of this bad news.

The Reaction (No Surprises): When the officially bad data landed, it held no new fear.
It was already "priced in."
With no new reason to sell, the downward pressure eased.

The Pivot (The Silver Lining): Bad economic data signals a slowing economy.
This forces the market to ask: "What's the Fed's next move?"
The answer is that a weak economy makes it more likely the Fed will cut interest rates sooner to stimulate growth.

The Result: Lower future interest rates are like rocket fuel for stocks (especially tech).
So, the market reversed and started "pricing in" those future rate cuts, causing the rally.

One sentence: The market stopped reacting to the past bad news and started betting on future pro-market policy from the Fed.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #868,488
  • Nov 13, 2025 11:20am Nov 13, 2025 11:20am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Short answer The Analogy Think of it like knowing a storm is coming. You sell all your outdoor furniture days in advance (the market drop). When the storm finally hits, your furniture is already gone. The storm itself is no surprise. Then, you immediately start planning and buying lumber for the repairs and sunny days ahead (the market rally on hope for rate cuts). I post a bit long answer after this

Reminds me of a guy who told me he was American, only to smash the house down with his dirty lies and secrets
  • #868,489
  • Nov 13, 2025 11:24am Nov 13, 2025 11:24am
one final note :

The UK's economy experienced a modest contraction in September 2025, with GDP falling 0.1% month-over-month, contributing to overall quarterly growth of just 0.1% for Q3 (July-September)—below the expected 0.2%.
(source :cnbc.com)

This dip was largely attributed to temporary factors, including a cyber-attack on Jaguar Land Rover that slashed car production by 28.6%, dragging down the production sector by 2.0%.
(theguardian.com)

Despite this "drop," the broader economy showed resilience: services grew 0.2%, construction edged up 0.1%, and year-over-year GDP rose 1.3%.
(ons.gov.uk)
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #868,490
  • Nov 13, 2025 11:24am Nov 13, 2025 11:24am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Bit detailed This is a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" (or in this case, "sell the rumor, buy the news") event. The breakdown: The Setup (Pricing In): Everyone knew the GDP data was going to be bad. The market sold off in the days/weeks before the release in anticipation of this bad news. The Reaction (No Surprises): When the officially bad data landed, it held no new fear. It was already "priced in." With no new reason to sell, the downward pressure eased. The Pivot (The Silver Lining): Bad economic data signals a slowing economy....
in a ...
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  • #868,491
  • Nov 13, 2025 11:24am Nov 13, 2025 11:24am
Quoting Guy1969
A key moment coming up... {image}
That trendline should see GU hit at least 3247 area. I still have this feeling bears are hiding somewhere in the bushes.
  • #868,492
  • Nov 13, 2025 11:26am Nov 13, 2025 11:26am
Quoting M31
{quote} Reminds me of a guy who told me he was American, only to smash the house down with his dirty lies and secrets
....bastard...
  • #868,493
  • Nov 13, 2025 11:29am Nov 13, 2025 11:29am
This market is still not settled, I had a quick look at correlation, and GBPUSD/USDCAD inverse correlation is as low as -13%. hence why we see both pairs up.
  • #868,494
  • Nov 13, 2025 11:30am Nov 13, 2025 11:30am
Lookout/ Outlook

(Short-term)
Cable could test 1.3200 if USD weakness persists ahead of the BoE's 20th, November decision, but a slip below 1.3100 risks revisiting 1.3000 on Budget fears.

(Long-term)
2026, forecasts are mixed: optimistic scenarios see GBP/USD at 1.35+ on UK stabilization, while risks like US protectionism or prolonged UK fiscal tightening could cap it near 1.28.

In summary, the GBP's performance reflects USD's relative underperformance and the UK's GDP setback being dismissed as temporary, rather than a structural collapse. (Jag & Land Roger)
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #868,495
  • Nov 13, 2025 11:33am Nov 13, 2025 11:33am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} There was a bad data for GBP earlier today and the pair made a very good recovery, it looks to me like it's targeting 1.3210 Fair Value area for November. Note that the Average first 10 trade days range of the month is 260 pips and so far we have 175 pips in the first 7 trade days. This means at least 85 more pips to break either 1.3184 or 1.3009. As it stands 1.3184 looks more likely to break. See simulations below: 1.3009 + 260 pips = 1.3269 1.3184 - 260 pips = 1.2924 1.3269 to be more likely this week as far as price trades above...
Fair Value area of 1.3210 attained... Good stuff!
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #868,496
  • Nov 13, 2025 11:43am Nov 13, 2025 11:43am
might be drama in a couple of days, Fed watch was gone the other way on a cut now due to lack of data and cpi price data not collected, means its difficult to carry forward to next month's data calculations, employment data may never be released, Feb members are hinting at waiting for data
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https://www.reuters.com/business/odd...ff-2025-11-13/
  • #868,497
  • Nov 13, 2025 11:44am Nov 13, 2025 11:44am
9 times out of 10, for continuation, the pullback stalls @ ADR High, for GU it's the highlighed area around 1.3170. I'll add more longs to my existing longs there. IF the march is to continue, the bulls need to defend that zone.
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  • #868,498
  • Nov 13, 2025 11:57am Nov 13, 2025 11:57am
Quoting M31
might be drama in a couple of days, Fed watch was gone the other way on a cut now due to lack of data and cpi price data not collected, means its difficult to carry forward to next month's data calculations, employment data may never be released, Feb members are hinting at waiting for data{image} https://www.reuters.com/business/odd...ff-2025-11-13/
I love drama...
  • #868,499
  • Nov 13, 2025 12:15pm Nov 13, 2025 12:15pm
Quoting M31
might be drama in a couple of days, Fed watch was gone the other way on a cut now due to lack of data and cpi price data not collected, means its difficult to carry forward to next month's data calculations, employment data may never be released, Feb members are hinting at waiting for data{image} https://www.reuters.com/business/odd...ff-2025-11-13/
If they don't cut, they are putting economy on the edge of a stagnation if not a recession. US equities look risky until we have our hands on the official data. I guess that's why US equities are performing poorly today.

FED needs to make it's mind, will they risk an economic slowdown just to bring inflation down to 2% from 3%? Or will they let the inflation slide and focus on the economic activity?

What we have so far; Challenger & Gray reported record number of layoffs in October, and over 2 million layoffs throughout the year which is another fiasco, way above the average. The housing sector looks on the edge as well, with building permits rapidly decreasing every month and existing home sales at the critical 4M mark. We can't say these numbers are bad, but if we continue to go lower then that is indeed bad news.

Add in the fact that US banks' liquidity reserves sitting at the critical 3T mark, which means we do not only have a brewing slowdown, we are also close to a liquidity crisis. The FED can only make things worse if they maintain a hawkish stance on rate cuts.

I can't believe I'm saying this but, Trump actually has a point on rate cuts now.

Now FED has two options:

1) Crash the USD (Blue pill)
2) Crash the Economy and everything down with it (red pill)
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #868,500
  • Nov 13, 2025 12:25pm Nov 13, 2025 12:25pm
Quoting Nordling
{quote} If they don't cut, they are putting economy on the edge of a stagnation if not a recession. US equities look risky until we have our hands on the official data. I guess that's why US equities are performing poorly today. FED needs to make it's mind, will they risk an economic slowdown just to bring inflation down to 2% from 3%? Or will they let the inflation slide and focus on the economic activity? What we have so far; Challenger & Gray reported record number of layoffs in October, and over 2 million layoffs throughout the year which is...
There was an article on reuters somewhere this morning, I'll see if I can find it. Goldman estimate this months jobs was 50,000 short of forecast.

You might have seen it already, I posted it for Calderone earlier
Here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/e...og-2025-11-12/

Most of panic seems to be equities /stock market: https://www.reuters.com/business/us-...en-2025-11-13/

T bill 30 year, might be being dumped too.
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