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Living in China, trading for a living 18 replies

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Trading for a living

  • #461
  • Nov 4, 2025 1:48pm Nov 4, 2025 1:48pm
Quoting Noisy
{quote} What would be a realistic profit-to-drawdown ratio? I was thinking that a maximum drawdown of 10% relative to a profit target of 2% per month would be feasible and acceptable.
This is a strange question from a person who has read 150 market and trading related books and been studying trading for 10 years. Are you suggesting that you'd be willing to risk 10% of your margin account to make 2%? If you lose on your first trade, you need more than 5 of the positive 2% trades to regain your loss. How many times in your life have you had 5 winning 2% trades in a row? It is important to remember that at 5 of the winning 2% trades, you are still a few hundred dollars from breakeven, and that means after 6 trades, you have made zero dollars to contribute to your monthly expenses. If you lose another 10% before reaching break even, then you are in a much deeper hole before you make it back to break even. Do you think that is a proper way to manage your margin account?

The real problem in this discussion is that you are unable to measure risk and reward in trading. Look at a chart and rationally explain where the risk is? Where is the reward? In forex trading, the market is moving from target to target, every day, every week, and every month, all within the structure of the market. Every move is intentional. The charts are a depiction of a narrative of the underlying structure of the market, taking place among market participants. If you understand something about the forex and what is happening in the market, you can measure the best places to enter and exit trades, which is the only thing that matters when discussing risk and reward. Risk is associated with mistiming or mis-reading the intent. Reward is associated with getting both right. If you are to become a trader, you need a framework in your head that facilitates this exercise, which requires knowledge. If you lack knowledge, you have zero basis of analyzing trading strategies, let alone putting one to use. Your approach is 100% dependent on being lucky. In your current approach, you add to the chaotic aspects to markets.

If after entering a trade, you start to wonder if it was a good trade for 2% or a bad trade heading for 10%, then it was a bad trade. Successful traders don't do that. They simply execute their trading plan.
  • #462
  • Nov 4, 2025 1:53pm Nov 4, 2025 1:53pm
Quoting Noisy
{quote} What would be a realistic profit-to-drawdown ratio? I was thinking that a maximum drawdown of 10% relative to a profit target of 2% per month would be feasible and acceptable. That would be a risk five times higher than the profit target. Based on a +6% quarterly target, the drawdown would still be almost twice. I wasn't talking about annualized performance because my goal is to achieve consistent monthly, or at least quarterly profitability. Otherwise, please tell me how traders who make a living from annual profitability can support themselves...

eh what?! A 10% annual drawdown against a 36% return. You cant annualise one and not the other, unless you’re pulling a Madoff.

how do retail day traders survive? With cast iron rock solid edges of the kind GPT doesn’t believe in. Or discretion. Or portfolios. Or massive capital. Or OPM. Take your pick. But yes it’s why so very few do, you mostly need performance that outstrips hedge funds to make it.

The how we’ve done to death. But you categorically want it all quantitatively gifted for you while you mess with APIs rather than test and discover. Fair enough but i wouldn’t, and I don’t know anyone decent who’s that daft either. And it sounds like you don’t enjoy the process either (aka the job) so no need to torture yourself. I hate opera so you won’t see me at Wagners Ring Cycle. Again.
  • #463
  • Edited 3:35pm Nov 4, 2025 3:16pm | Edited 3:35pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} This is a strange question from a person who has read 150 market and trading related books and been studying trading for 10 years. Are you suggesting that you'd be willing to risk 10% of your margin account to make 2%? If you lose on your first trade, you need more than 5 of the positive 2% trades to regain your loss. How many times in your life have you had 5 winning 2% trades in a row? It is important to remember that at 5 of the winning 2% trades, you are still a few hundred dollars from breakeven, and that means after 6 trades, you have...
I said my goal/need is to make +2% a month overall while maintaining a -10% max. drawdown at any given time.

With my ORB system, I’m currently risking 0.25% per order and I’m up +10.8% in total return (net after fees) at the time writing. Over 44 days and 141 orders executed and closed, where I trade the system in its current form across the 3 markets (DAX, NAS, Gold), that averages out to 3 trades per day and an average profit of +0.24% per day or 0.0765% per trade. I haven’t looked at a chart for 1 minute. I did exactly what you say, executed a trading plan (in this case a rule based mechanical system).

I don’t say its great, will remain to be profitable, or that my drawdown limit won’t be exceeded, which could certainly happen. So far I've had 8 consecutive losing orders and 14 consecutive winning orders.

So, what are your results for the last 44 days? Anyone? I thought there were „full-time“ professional traders here doing this for a living. How much capital are you trading, what are your monthly living expenses, and were you able to cover them?
  • #464
  • Edited 3:36pm Nov 4, 2025 3:23pm | Edited 3:36pm
Quoting triphop
{quote} eh what?! A 10% annual drawdown against a 36% return. You cant annualise one and not the other, unless you’re pulling a Madoff. how do retail day traders survive? With cast iron rock solid edges of the kind GPT doesn’t believe in. Or discretion. Or portfolios. Or massive capital. Or OPM. Take your pick. But yes it’s why so very few do, you mostly need performance that outstrips hedge funds to make it. The how we’ve done to death. But you categorically want it all quantitatively gifted for you while you mess with APIs rather than test and...
Who enjoys a process for 15+ years but couldn’t even cover minimum wage from it? Well, I used to like the „process“ but not so much anymore, correct. I guess a Messi would have lost his love in kicking the ball after not even being able to bring food on the table. Did he even play 15 years? Idk. Yeah probably. But he’s a multimillionaire right now and I’m still broke as fuck :-/
  • #465
  • Nov 4, 2025 4:31pm Nov 4, 2025 4:31pm
Quoting Noisy
{quote} I said my goal/need is to make +2% a month overall while maintaining a -10% max. drawdown at any given time. With my ORB system, I’m currently risking 0.25% per order and I’m up +10.8% in total return (net after fees) at the time writing. Over 44 days and 141 orders executed and closed, where I trade the system in its current form across the 3 markets (DAX, NAS, Gold), that averages out to 3 trades per day and an average profit of +0.24% per day or 0.0765% per trade. I haven’t looked at a chart for 1 minute. I did exactly what you say, executed...
Well you have the answer
but
Perhaps you need to add another one of his methods
into the mix now ?
  • #466
  • Edited 8:11pm Nov 4, 2025 4:31pm | Edited 8:11pm
Quoting Noisy
{quote}So, what are your results for the last 44 days? Anyone? I thought there were „full-time“ professional traders here doing this for a living. How much capital are you trading, what are your monthly living expenses, and were you able to cover them?
Perfectly reasonable questions. I'll provide the following answer. My last 44 days have been outstanding. I enjoy trading every day, but don't enter trades every day.

Today i traded the G$, the GY, and the $CAD, skipping a trade on the E$. Targets on the G$: 1 3044 and 1 3015, and i held both trades to target 2. Entry on the G$: Trade 1 entry at 1.3061, stop at 1.3081; Trade 2 entry at 1.3031, stop 1.3051. Both trades exited at 1.3015. Target on GY 199.90. Trade entry at 200.35, stop at 200.61. Exited trade at 200.00. Target on $CAD 1.4100. Trade entry 1 4079, stop at 1 4061. Exited trade at 1.4100.

I never risk more than 1.5% per trade. My targets are at least equal to my stop but often exceed 2.5%. If i don't have targets, i don't trade. I have enough capital to trade what I traded today, and typical trades are 3 to 5 standard lots. The G$ trades were 3 standard lots, the other trades at 2 standard lots. You can do the math from there.

My perspective and narrative of the market were the same the markets. I work hard at staying in sync with the bankers.

Edit: The $J just broke a target at 153.35 (at approximately 8PM EDT). What do you think about that move? What drove PA to and then through that target? What is the likely PA after testing 153.00?
  • #467
  • Edited 1:06am Nov 5, 2025 12:51am | Edited 1:06am
Quoting sharingan9
EJ setting up for a long. Alert received. a few conditions missing but i will take a gamble
Quoting sharingan9
AUDCAD long setting up. EURNOK short setting up on weekly pivots though so will probably look to short if hourly pivot is descending
EJ was break even with small profit. Risky trade since first target was already hit and there was no hit of any m15 S level before going long(no attempt at further exhaustion down to reach H1S1).

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AUDCAD nice profit hitting well beyond second target although only m15 S1 was hit

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EURNOK. Got the descending H1 pivot so went short and it hit secondary target

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All the same exact setup. Mechanical. You don't need super high powered algos or exorbitant funds to trade profitably. Anyone else care to call out some trades in advance and explain entries or are the egos too fragile lol. Am I the only one actually trading what he preaches? Call out some trades guys. Put your strats to the test so OP can learn from which system he can truly make a living. I'm seeing all this talk and all this theorizing but no trades taken.
  • #468
  • Nov 5, 2025 1:21am Nov 5, 2025 1:21am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Yes. I can relate to some aspects of it, but I wouldn't say I'm a chronic complainer or that I reject all help outright. I'm already trying everything I can.
This is the article I meant to post (instead of the the previous one):

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/b...ng-complainers

Better?

Getting back to my five part solution to what you need to trade successfully, number one was get yourself and your life in balance. If you were in balance you wouldn't ask for, or need, "direct help" but advice. And once you had actionable advice you would act, and results would follow. So I sincerely hope that you will be able to get yourself and your life in balance, and only after that think about trading.
  • #469
  • Nov 5, 2025 3:38am Nov 5, 2025 3:38am
CADSGD signal long. waiting for elevated m15 middle pivot
  • #470
  • Nov 5, 2025 7:44am Nov 5, 2025 7:44am
My friend Noisy,
remember,
you only need one setup that gives you a statistical advantage to make money, just one.
You can do it!
Don't give up!


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  • #471
  • Nov 5, 2025 7:47am Nov 5, 2025 7:47am
Quoting flavio1900
My friend Noisy, remember, you only need one setup that gives you a statistical advantage to make money, just one. You can do it! Don't give up! {image}

Ah, somebody is making money with my little contribution. I'm delighted to see
  • #472
  • Nov 5, 2025 7:51am Nov 5, 2025 7:51am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Perfectly reasonable questions. I'll provide the following answer. My last 44 days have been outstanding. I enjoy trading every day, but don't enter trades every day. Today i traded the G$, the GY, and the $CAD, skipping a trade on the E$. Targets on the G$: 1 3044 and 1 3015, and i held both trades to target 2. Entry on the G$: Trade 1 entry at 1.3061, stop at 1.3081; Trade 2 entry at 1.3031, stop 1.3051. Both trades exited at 1.3015. Target on GY 199.90. Trade entry at 200.35, stop at 200.61. Exited trade at 200.00. Target on $CAD 1.4100....
Thank you so much! Direct question, direct answer.

I think we differ significantly in our philosophies regarding trading, as well as in our approach. As I said, I want to keep my trading as simple as possible and repeatable with clear rules instead of trying to predict things.

Howard Seidler, a top trader trained by Richard Dennis, once said in a quote:

"The outcome of each trade is random, and there's nothing you can do about that; there is no way of knowing which trade will have a positive outcome. So, you simply focus on executing your strategy and ignore the outcome of each trade, knowing that provided your strategy has an edge, you will eventually make money."

I would agree with that, and it's also what I've read and heard from other successful traders. Yet, many seem to do the exact opposite by conducting complex analyses and try to predict things instead of simply executing their tested strategy assuming that this will lead to the desired results over a number of trades. In short: Be the casino, instead of trying to be the player. Let the numbers play out.

Quote
What do you think about that move? What drove PA to and then through that target? What is the likely PA after testing 153.00?

Consequently, I try to avoid exactly what you're asking about. I don't want to become a slave to the market by constantly trying to analyze every move, predict the next target, or be in sync with any bankers. I'm trying to find a very systematic approach to trading without constantly having to monitor charts (or only at very specific predefined times), where all that will ever happen there, is the price moving up, down, or sideways.

I also don't think that would improve my mental state or my financial situation. I don't wish to meticulously analyze every market, move, fundamental aspect, bankers, Trump tweets, cycles etc etc. It's simply too much for me. Not because I want to avoid a lot of work, but because I want to avoid the chaos of this information constant overload which will prevent me from making a clear, repeatable decision.

I believe you get paid to execute - not to know everything. I'm looking for freedom and money from trading, not some kind of occupational therapy which keeps me stuck in an endless loop of analysis paralysis instead of making money from it. Then, as I said, I might as well look for a job with a secure fixed salary that gives me just that.
  • #473
  • Nov 5, 2025 7:56am Nov 5, 2025 7:56am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} I think we differ significantly in our philosophies regarding trading, as well as in our approach. As I said, I want to keep my trading as simple as possible and repeatable with clear rules instead of trying to predict things.
The big difference is that GEfx is making money and you are not. And as triphop has pointed out, your performance expectations are incompatible with your "philosophy" quoted above. You can keep this philosophy, but it will be at your expense.

Your philosophy can't be simpler than the market if you are going to make money. Which is why you need to nurture an interest in understanding the market ever more deeply. Your most recent post is quite delusional.

I learn something new every day, and it amazes me how much there is to learn. And I'm delighted to have a senior trader with me on the journey as witness and sanity check.
  • #474
  • Nov 5, 2025 7:56am Nov 5, 2025 7:56am
Quoting medici
{quote} Ah, somebody is making money with my little contribution. I'm delighted to see

It was a great contribution, but very underestimated... but I repeat, sometimes we are so blinded that we cannot even see a gold nugget right under our noses...
  • #475
  • Nov 5, 2025 8:04am Nov 5, 2025 8:04am
Quoting medici
{quote} This is the article I meant to post (instead of the the previous one): https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/b...ng-complainers Better? Getting back to my five part solution to what you need to trade successfully, number one was get yourself and your life in balance. If you were in balance you wouldn't ask for, or need, "direct help" but advice. And once you had actionable advice you would act, and results would follow. So I sincerely hope that you will be able to get yourself...
Yes, better. I just wonder how I'm supposed to find "balance" in my life when I wake up in the morning with financial worries and go to sleep with them again at night. Those are all great sayings when you're relatively carefree. My younger sister is always telling me, "Oh, don't worry so much," "Money isn't everything," etc. Yeah, great, she earns six figures a year and doesn't have to constantly worry about how she's going to pay for anything. I think I'd be more "relaxed" then, too. As I said, I'm trying to generate income from trading to create exactly that balance and the lifestyle I want. In the best-case scenario, even a reasonably good pension.
Are those unrealistic expectations? I'm not some monk who's finds inner peace by sitting in a monastery all day, praying, and watering flowers in the garden. It's nice if that works for them, but that's just not me.
  • #476
  • Edited 9:05am Nov 5, 2025 8:10am | Edited 9:05am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Are those unrealistic expectations?
All expectations are unreasonable. They distort your view of reality, and they pollute your life and actions.

Better to completely and unconditionally surrender to how things are, and take life as it comes.Then you will find "balance".
  • #477
  • Nov 5, 2025 8:22am Nov 5, 2025 8:22am
Quoting medici
{quote} The big difference is that GEfx is making money and you are not. And as triphop has pointed out, your performance expectations are incompatible with your "philosophy" quoted above. You can keep this philosophy, but it will be at your expense. Your philosophy can't be simpler than the market if you are going to make money. Which is why you need to nurture an interest in understanding the market ever more deeply. Your most recent post is quite delusional. I learn something new every day, and it amazes me how much there is to learn....
The irony here is that my approach delivers exactly what he is looking for. Last night, I got an alert on my phone that the $J had broken 153.30. I checked the charts about 30 minutes later, and noted that PA had moved to 153.00. I entered a trade at 153.03, with a stop at 152.83. I moved my stop to 153.18 before going to bed, and woke up with the price at 153.70. I am still in the trade, up over 90 pips. I slept through most of the price move, which is the opposite of slavishly analyzing the charts (I analyze charts and work on them every day for a few hours, but I would not consider that being a slave to the work).

I agree with you 100% -- I learn so much every day that it is ridiculous. I'm in awe at how little I know.
  • #478
  • Edited 11:16am Nov 5, 2025 8:31am | Edited 11:16am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Yes, better. I just wonder how I'm supposed to find "balance" in my life when I wake up in the morning with financial worries and go to sleep with them again at night. Those are all great sayings when you're relatively carefree. My younger sister is always telling me, "Oh, don't worry so much," "Money isn't everything," etc. Yeah, great, she earns six figures a year and doesn't have to constantly worry about how she's going to pay for anything. I think I'd be more "relaxed" then, too. As I said, I'm trying to generate income from trading...
This is trying to motivate, I'm not trying to mock you. Pick any system that has been suggested here. Any system with money management will work, there is no easy, mechanical, system that you are lookingg for. The closest to this I can think of is, Bollinger band B I suggested on the 1 hour. Any system I have read in this thread will work, if you apply the rules correctly.

I'm demonstrating flipping a coin in old fashioned, with money management alone, in two days, its £100 up from £1000, and nothing more than flipping
a coin 7 times. The system doesn't matter, pick any average system, be aware of your psychology and how important it is and manage risk. It can not fail, I went from a tent, paying debts and owning a house in 3 years, because of self reflection and homework. You have to dust off the self pity, get angry and fight, your financial problems will not solve themselves. You're in self pity stage, you need a break from this, and look at it again when fresh.
  • #479
  • Nov 5, 2025 10:33am Nov 5, 2025 10:33am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} I don't want to become a slave to the market by constantly trying to analyze every move, predict the next target, or be in sync with any bankers. I'm trying to find a very systematic approach to trading without constantly having to monitor charts (or only at very specific predefined times), where all that will ever happen there, is the price moving up, down, or sideways. I also don't think that would improve my mental state or my financial situation. I don't wish to meticulously analyze every market, move, fundamental aspect, bankers, Trump...
Last words on my trading: In the last 24 hours, I have traded in G$, GY, $CAD, and I have an open position in the $Y. I have made more money in 24 hours than you stated you need for your monthly budget. In 24 hours, over $7,000. When you go to bed tonight, or wake up tomorrow, and you are worried about life and money, please also remember that you have chosen to be sad and poor.
  • #480
  • Nov 5, 2025 11:05am Nov 5, 2025 11:05am
Bollinger band B, 1-hour, trade this morning 4:1, 1 lot €4500, the second signal this week 9000 euro in two days
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