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Living in China, trading for a living 18 replies

1 trade per pair per year 6 replies

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Trading for a living

  • #441
  • Nov 3, 2025 2:02pm Nov 3, 2025 2:02pm
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Hi All, I don't think it's entirely fair to say that I haven't shown any inclination to do the necessary work. It's just that I haven't made much progress with everything I've tried so far I've looked at all the approaches that have been explained here, but I'm not getting anywhere. My energy/hope is therefore somewhat depleted.
I haven't made much progress with everything I've tried so far

I'm not getting anywhere.

My energy/hope is therefore somewhat depleted.

I can't understand Thtpro's ideas

I haven't tried/backtested

I can't make any progress on my own

can't glean anything useful from what Sharingan9

It's simply not worth the time
  • #442
  • Nov 3, 2025 2:08pm Nov 3, 2025 2:08pm
based on that trade trajectory your making some progress try change your tone, keep working on it
  • #443
  • Nov 3, 2025 2:16pm Nov 3, 2025 2:16pm
Quoting Noisy
GEFx has only offered some general advice, such as that it requires a lot of work, or comments that I should leave it alone and stop posting here.
I would hate to think that anything I have said here would/should/could be viewed as general advice. I have made some observations about what your comments in your posts and that is all. Your motivational framework in becoming a trader is to make money. Your perception of the market is what you see in a chart. The motivational framework of the forex, which I refer to as the narrative of the market, has nothing to do with making money. On the other hand, the perception of the market, which includes everything that produces the PA on the chart you are watching, actually has nothing to do with the chart. What you are motivated by, and what you are watching, have nothing to do with the forex and what it is doing. You are watching the score, but have no idea how the game is played, who is playing the game, what the rules are, or for that matter, how and why the score is changing. Your trading results are a reflection of your perception of the market, and your perception of the market is totally dependent on what you understand about the market, what you are seeing in PA, how you calculate the impact of FA on structure, how TA can help you model your understanding of where the market has been and where it is going, and how you process that information into a trade.

I understand your frustration with your trading experience. I don't want to see you lose money. From your profile, you live in Germany, so you have a lot of economic uncertainty and pain on your plate right now. If trading is adding to your misery, then consider trying something else, until you understand the markets better.
  • #444
  • Nov 3, 2025 2:43pm Nov 3, 2025 2:43pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I would hate to think that anything I have said here would/should/could be viewed as general advice. I have made some observations about what your comments in your posts and that is all. Your motivational framework in becoming a trader is to make money. Your perception of the market is what you see in a chart. The motivational framework of the forex, which I refer to as the narrative of the market, has nothing to do with making money. On the other hand, the perception of the market, which includes everything that produces the PA on the chart...
From what I gather from your comments, you're saying I don't know enough about the markets and fundamentals. For the past 20 years, I've read pretty much everything there is to read about every market and its players, and aside from making my head even more cluttered, it hasn't helped me achieve any specific goal. I'd be happy to send you a photo of the 150+ books I own on the markets, Forex, and who knows what else. Some people have said that you need a working strategy that you can implement and that simply leads to these goals. I'd agree with that, but that's exactly what I'm lacking. Frustration. Yes, to put it mildly. Not a day goes by that I wake up and my first thought is that I'd rather hold a gun to my head.
  • #445
  • Nov 3, 2025 3:02pm Nov 3, 2025 3:02pm
Quoting Noisy
{quote} From what I gather from your comments, you're saying I don't know enough about the markets and fundamentals.
No, from what you've said you don't know enough about the market and fundamentals. I am not interested in what you've read (perhaps you have read the wrong books or you just are not assimilating the information). I really don't know what you know. I just understand from your posts that you don't know enough about the markets to trade. You are asking the wrong questions and are approaching this from the wrong perspective, based on what you have posted. Stop what you are doing and do something different from this approach -- to life and trading.
  • #446
  • Edited Nov 4, 2025 2:29am Nov 3, 2025 9:53pm | Edited Nov 4, 2025 2:29am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Hi All, I don't think it's entirely fair to say that I haven't shown any inclination to do the necessary work. It's just that I haven't made much progress with everything I've tried so far I've looked at all the approaches that have been explained here, but I'm not getting anywhere. My energy/hope is therefore somewhat depleted. I can't understand Thtpro's ideas and have no idea how to use them to create a concrete trading model that will get me to my goal. Your suggestion of the ORB version (TradingView) is something I haven't tried/backtested...
Vault

That's motivational speak. I don't know how 'no point' translates with german and it's meaning. In english It's quite negative, when you are being negative, from my experience, you don't see what is directly in front of you. I was saying take a break and look at it from a fresh perspective. Also, from my experience, there is no way to rush this, trying to skip a few steps. The most strategic use of your time would be to train and practice in a simulator. From the way you talk, my impression is you don't particularly enjoy trading, but you need the lifestyle.

There are a lot of people giving you advice, and you don't know which to try first or follow. It was this reason why I said I have nothing more to offer to this discussion. And then I read this post and you said,

Mistakes

- No predefined plan with clear entry and exit rules that I could backtest beforehand and that offers a positive expectation.
- No well-thought-out risk management
- No time management; instead, I traded at random times of day. As you said, the last trade was even for the DAX during the US session, without considering that it was the last day of the month, etc.
- No emotional control during active trade management; I tried to control trades based on feelings instead of clear rules.
- And probably much more.

Then I wonder, what's the point of trying to find a strategy that might work for a few months only to completely fail a while later? I don't have the time or inclination to constantly adjust and search for new strategies.

I don't know you but from reading, you seem impatient, however. Your emotions are in check, as I don't remember reading anything to reveal a temper. So, because impatience is easy to solve and emotions not so much. I think if I could do it in my position, you can do it. I was trying to motivate with the vault, the answer is there right in front of you, but you don't want to see or you can't see it (Whats the point)

I don't know if you are aware of all those principles you listed above now or not, maybe your point was, 'you weren't aware in the past and now you are but still no difference to performance', so whats 'the point'; That's why I mentioned my thread, as it discusses all these topics and psychology that goes with the thought processes and how it affects trading. These are essential topics to know and understand; you will not be profitable until at least 1000-2000 hours invested, adhering to these basic rules. There is no shortcut for this; it's hours of training and practice, and every hour you spend looking at another way is essentially wasted. It reminds me of me, when I was sleeping on a friend's sofa; I have said similar things to this before, but I know Germans are more direct, and you might be literally stating the obvious, and you do believe it is genuinely a waste of time invested, so what's the point.

Also, the chart - Trading on the 5-minute, a naked chart with your past experiences and judging market mechanics - is not a good idea.

The only skill or knowledge required to do this is money risk management; there are so many ways for everything else. Pick any average way, it doesn't matter, and then you practice. Starting out, keep it simple and stay on the one-hour timeframe, market structure from the 4-hour, code a way to show candle patterns, doji, inside bar, kickers, engulfing, piercing lines, dark clouds, belt hold, Harami, Marubozo, Hammer, Shooting Star, Tweezers

Base signals from standard deviation and volume as Confluence. Bollinger Band B. If you can't make money from this, it's bad habits from psychology. You currently need a full weekend to go through the thread I've mentioned, basics - intermediate level, a high win rate strategy to use, and psychology topics too. It is all in there; you just need to devote time and study.

I was sleeping in a tent under the motorway (Autobahn) for a month until I asked for help, and then stayed with friends - it was nearly 3 years until I had a place of my own. It's why my trading account is called "No Point" - to remind me what it took to get here, and I would describe myself as an average trader, with sub optimal psychology, if I can do it, you can...

You need risk management, no ego, no emotional attachment to money, patience the rest is superficial and the last 5%
  • #447
  • Nov 3, 2025 10:05pm Nov 3, 2025 10:05pm
This is without volume confluence cutting the mistakes further
1 hour XAUUSD Bolling band b, only trade when you have a candle pattern detected

These are 5:1 trades
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  • #448
  • Nov 3, 2025 10:07pm Nov 3, 2025 10:07pm
Keeps you safe from ranging too, again no volume here - volume safer again

Only trade with a pattern and standard deviation returning back under 2 from being outside 2, its all you need
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  • #449
  • Nov 4, 2025 3:24am Nov 4, 2025 3:24am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} No, from what you've said you don't know enough about the market and fundamentals. I am not interested in what you've read (perhaps you have read the wrong books or you just are not assimilating the information). I really don't know what you know. I just understand from your posts that you don't know enough about the markets to trade. You are asking the wrong questions and are approaching this from the wrong perspective, based on what you have posted. Stop what you are doing and do something different from this approach -- to life...
Agree wholeheartedly. Successful trading requires understanding of the markets, not pushing the buttons of some backtested system that one only half understands.

As discussed earlier it's about finding niches relatively safe from alpha decay, and generally they are found in areas such as:

  1. Behavioural or sentiment-driven anomalies
  2. Analysis of market microstructure, liquidity constraints, order flow, etc
  3. Complex or esoteric models with high barriers of entry and therefore less crowded
  4. Creative uses of technical analysis

All of which require understanding of and interest in how the markets work. On top of it, one needs to continually be alert, monitor and adapt one's approach based on the same kind of understanding.

  • #450
  • Nov 4, 2025 4:28am Nov 4, 2025 4:28am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} From what I gather from your comments, you're saying I don't know enough about the markets and fundamentals. For the past 20 years, I've read pretty much everything there is to read about every market and its players, and aside from making my head even more cluttered, it hasn't helped me achieve any specific goal. I'd be happy to send you a photo of the 150+ books I own on the markets, Forex, and who knows what else. Some people have said that you need a working strategy that you can implement and that simply leads to these goals. I'd agree...
I mean I think everyone here has shown in great detail their strategy. What specifically are you not understanding about each strategy? Maybe there is something that is unclear? Are you a real time visual learner?

Perhaps should have people call out trades right before they take them and explain entries as I have been doing. I get an alert I post the time of the alert I post my entry i post the move in price. Maybe if we all do that we can provide better visuals in real time. No one seems to be inclined to do so but me it seems
  • #451
  • Nov 4, 2025 4:33am Nov 4, 2025 4:33am
EJ setting up for a long. Alert received. a few conditions missing but i will take a gamble
  • #452
  • Nov 4, 2025 4:40am Nov 4, 2025 4:40am
AUDCAD long setting up. EURNOK short setting up on weekly pivots though so will probably look to short if hourly pivot is descending
  • #453
  • Nov 4, 2025 8:44am Nov 4, 2025 8:44am
Quoting medici
{quote} Agree wholeheartedly. Successful trading requires understanding of the markets, not pushing the buttons of some backtested system that one only half understands. As discussed earlier it's about finding niches relatively safe from alpha decay, and generally they are found in areas such as: Behavioural or sentiment-driven anomalies Analysis of market microstructure, liquidity constraints, order flow, etc Complex or esoteric models with high barriers of entry and therefore less crowded Creative uses of technical analysis All of which require...
You are contradicting yourself somewhat in your statements. On the one hand, you say that all you need is a strategy with positive expectations that you can implement, that suits you, and that leads to the desired goals. On the other hand, you say that you need tons of additional knowledge about the markets (which I have, but which has so far done nothing to help me achieve such a goal). I don't need to know more, I just need to have something I can execute that is profitable.

I have already said that I suffer greatly from information overload and I disagree with the opinion that you have to know everything about the markets in order to profit from them. Maybe if you want to be the next Market Wizard but thats's not my goal at all. I would like to be able to generate a repeatable income from trading. I'm not interested in becoming the next super trader with millions or even billions under management.

I feel like I'm not getting anywhere here. The answers I get are too general and don't help me at all in achieving a very specific goal with the resources, knowledge, and skills I have at my disposal. What I need is a working strategy with as little discretion as possible (no constant information overload leading to more analysis paralysis), which sets out a clear daily routine of when and what I have to do in the time I have available (max. 3-4 hours until the London or New York market opens). A strategy with a clearly repeatable, objective entry/exit trigger that can be identified either manually or preferable automated, a clear market that I can trade with it to make the required +2-3%/R with a maximum daily drawdown of 5%/R and a total drawdown of -10%/R.

I have looked at the Renko strategy you described for GBP/USD, but it does not seem to me that it could lead to the stated goals under the given conditions.
  • #454
  • Nov 4, 2025 8:57am Nov 4, 2025 8:57am
Ah finally, a set of requirements for a non discretionary automatable strategy! Let's see now

Give me the performance stats on this: A strategy with a clearly repeatable, objective entry/exit trigger that can be identified either manually or preferable automated, a clear market that I can trade with it to make the required 5-10k per month (or let's say +2-3%) with a maximum daily drawdown of 5% and a total drawdown of -10%.
ChatGPT said:
If you really could build a strategy like that—objectively defined, consistent, and returning +2–3% a month with a maximum drawdown of 10%—you’d be doing something the vast majority of hedge funds have spent billions trying to achieve.
Let’s run the arithmetic before the dream fogs things up.
Expected return and volatility
A 2–3% monthly gain translates to about 24–36% per year (compounded). To maintain a maximum drawdown of 10%, your annualised volatility would likely need to sit around 8–12%, assuming decent control of downside risk and no black swans.
That means your return-to-risk ratio is around:
24–36% ÷ 8–12% = Sharpe ratio of roughly 2–3
That’s extraordinarily good. Sustained Sharpe ratios above 2 are the province of high-frequency market makers, statistical arbitrage funds with absurd infrastructure, or exceptionally niche inefficiencies that don’t scale. Retail or semi-manual strategies almost never sustain it for long.
Reality check
A retail-accessible, clearly repeatable, rule-based system hitting 2–3% per month with a 10% total drawdown implies near-perfect consistency, meaning either:

  1. it’s overfitted and will implode once market conditions shift, or
  2. it’s exploiting a fleeting anomaly (in which case, enjoy it while it lasts).

If your true realised drawdown occasionally breaches 10%, your Sharpe will collapse toward 1–1.5, which is far more realistic—and still respectable.
In short
If what you describe actually exists and can be verified live, it would have an annualised Sharpe ratio of about 2.0–2.5, maybe 3 in fantasy land. In the real world, expect 1–1.5 once slippage, costs, and variance are factored in. Anything higher and you’ve either discovered magic or data-mined a mirage.

  • #455
  • Edited 9:19am Nov 4, 2025 9:01am | Edited 9:19am
It's time to say it out loud - what this thread is driven by. I had my partner take a look at some of the thread-starter's posts here. Her diagnosis was immediate.

If you are interested take a look here: https://mindbbcounseling.com/3-ways-...g-complaining/
  • #456
  • Nov 4, 2025 10:45am Nov 4, 2025 10:45am
Quoting triphop
Ah finally, a set of requirements for a non discretionary automatable strategy! Let's see now Give me the performance stats on this: A strategy with a clearly repeatable, objective entry/exit trigger that can be identified either manually or preferable automated, a clear market that I can trade with it to make the required 5-10k per month (or let's say +2-3%) with a maximum daily drawdown of 5% and a total drawdown of -10%. ChatGPT said: If you really could build a strategy like that—objectively defined, consistent, and returning +2–3% a month with...
What would be a realistic profit-to-drawdown ratio? I was thinking that a maximum drawdown of 10% relative to a profit target of 2% per month would be feasible and acceptable. That would be a risk five times higher than the profit target. Based on a +6% quarterly target, the drawdown would still be almost twice.

I wasn't talking about annualized performance because my goal is to achieve consistent monthly, or at least quarterly profitability. Otherwise, please tell me how traders who make a living from annual profitability can support themselves when their expenses are monthly and they don't have sufficient savings or other sources of income to bridge months of drawdown?

Most prop trading providers also expect adherence to a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:2.

In the example of FTMO

Account size: $100,000
Minimum trading days: 4 days
Maximum Daily Loss: $5,000 (-5%)
Maximum Loss: $10,000 (-10%)
Profit Target: $10,000 (+10%)

Here's what I found on Investopia

"In practice, investors want to see maximum drawdowns that are half the annual portfolio return or less. That means if the maximum drawdown is 10% over a given period, investors want a return of 20% (RoMaD = 2). So the larger a fund's drawdowns, the higher the expectation for returns."

Current ORB performance (44 days)

All Time Return: +11.1%
Max Return Drawdown: -5.3%
  • #457
  • Nov 4, 2025 11:12am Nov 4, 2025 11:12am
Quoting medici
It's time to say it out loud - what this thread is driven by. I had my partner take a look at some of the thread-starter's posts here. Her diagnosis was immediate. If you are interested take a look here: https://mindbbcounseling.com/3-ways-...g-complaining/
The article contains a few fundamental errors.

"You offer ideas, encouragement, resources—and what do you get back?"
"After a while, it starts to feel like they don't actually want solutions at all — they want to stay stuck in the story of struggle."

But "Ideas, encouragement, resources" are just that. Ideas, encouragement, resources. These are not solutions!? A solution is 1 + 2 = 3.
  • #458
  • Edited 11:37am Nov 4, 2025 11:24am | Edited 11:37am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} The article contains a few fundamental errors. "You offer ideas, encouragement, resources—and what do you get back?" "After a while, it starts to feel like they don't actually want solutions at all — they want to stay stuck in the story of struggle." But "Ideas, encouragement, resources" are just that. Ideas, encouragement, resources. These are not solutions!? A solution is 1 + 2 = 3.
Perhaps it does. It was only meant to create a different focus/perspective. And your response underlines it.
  • #459
  • Nov 4, 2025 12:38pm Nov 4, 2025 12:38pm
I really do feel for you and hope you will get out of the "hole" you probably feel your in.
They say there are 1000 ways to skin a cat, some more effective than others, but eventually all get the work done. But not wanting to skin the cat will not help you towards to where you want to be. If you cant pick a solution, then the cat will remain unskinned, even though your job is to skin it.

Many a solution has been gifted to you, but you seem to expect a sure fire recipe that will give you x amount of pips each day, with minimal risk. In my opinion trading is a very individual profession, where each persons psychology and emotions plays a big part. I sincerely doubt any one will simply a winning strategy just like that, and to be honest Im not really sure it would help you if someone would give it to you. I think you need to own it, and for that to happen you need to do the work needed.

You say you have so and so much time for trading and you feel its not enough. Get to work and find how you could trade in the time period you have available during the day. Find out what needs to be done to make it work, but you find it, no AI and other people. Im sure you will find it even though you haven so far, but make sure not to make your "excuses"-side win. Make sure to listen to the possibilities you can come up with.

People like Medici and others in this thread have offered some good advice, which one you should try is not for me to decide, but I would urge to you to not dismiss all of them. I think it would be a good thing to maybe sit down and make a list of advice etc you could try. You could even rank it yourself, but then to try them for a set period, even though its outside your own comfort zone (in fact I would urge you to try something that is most out of your comfort zone). Dismissing everything will only make things even more stale than before, and if Im not mistaken you are still in the same place you were when you started the thread, so whats the harm in trying.
Always be honest with yourself even though it can be hard sometimes.

PS: Ive read countless trading books over the years myself, and its very few books I would recommend. However I do think maybe you could benefit from its "The Mental Game of Trading" by Jared Tendler. I downloaded it after someone here on FF linked it. However I do not have the link now. Look into it if you havent already.
Take care, and good luck!
  • #460
  • Nov 4, 2025 1:44pm Nov 4, 2025 1:44pm
Quoting medici
{quote} Perhaps it does. It was only meant to create a different focus/perspective. And your response underlines it.
Yes. I can relate to some aspects of it, but I wouldn't say I'm a chronic complainer or that I reject all help outright. I'm already trying everything I can.
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