Cable Update (GBPUSD)

FYR

CABLE

Definitely made a strong impulsive move up yesterday and today.
I’m thinking we might be forming some kind of flat pattern here.

If price reaches one of those classic flat levels (100%, maybe 123%, or even 168% if it becomes an extended flat) and then breaks structure to the downside, that could very likely mark the end of this move and continue the bigger downtrend.

Right now, I’m still watching the structure… it probably has a bit more room to push up, but I still believe there’s a good chance we’ll see another drop once the market is ready. (based on guessing only)


This is just my guess—market will do whatever it wants anyway.
And as always, this isn’t a signal service.
If you blow your account, don’t come crying and blaming me—I’m still a newbie!
Ask from other professional trader in this forum, we have abundance.

G/M, upside follow-thru on y/day's > 30day adr dly pinbar close so far today, up to CDH/CWH @3373, (fib there, and desc t/line that joins 3726 with 3489,) - this just above last fri's 3369 hi, (price probably triggered a few buy stops there,) ie used as liquidity for the supply that came in. 1st 4hr downside b/o of LWL proves false therefore. AL is presently the CDL.

1hr below

Well May be u r right . But in my opinion if it was just a liquidity sweep 4hr candle should not close under the previous lvl and the yesterday daily candle must close above 1.33332 this time . lets see what will happen now.

...4hr and 1hr are presently rangy - most recently bullish, overall. 4hr may still be in a messy general downtrend, and 1hr may be entering an uptrend,- we'll see? Lots of fibs to the upside, notably a 6 fib cluster 3387-97, then a 5 fib cluster 3419-28. LWH is up there @ 3490.

4hr below

i don’t know if my target is possible.

edit
fvg? If so I can sleep well

Coming soon the sequel to " The Big Short " ..."The Big Long" starring "Zebi" a story about predictive trader that goes LONG but everyone else goes SHORT ...

spoiler alert the market went SHORT costing thousands of pips...

Hi, what is a stop-hunt if not a form of liquidity sweep? Also, Y/day's dly candle has already closed!
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...strong bounce up from 3252 YL, which is also the CWL/CML, and all of y/day's big drop and more has been recovered, at the CDH/CWH. Intraday is bullish so far overall. 2 x fibs @/around the current p/back lo off that CDH.

Average ranges graphic, then 1hr below.

I remember when the most volatile session of the market for GU was London. The fact that it now appears to be the quietest, I think, shows the markets perception of the economic situation in Europe.

I am selling gold back below major whole number 4000


not financial advice my personal opinion

...14 days into the U.s Govt shutdown and no Gbpusd 500pip rally, (yet at least,) re the last U.s govt shutdown, that Zebi alerted us to. In fact had you gone long this pairing @ the beginning of the shut-down, you would almost certainly have been stopped out as the market dipped to new lows. Just goes to show that one instance is not representative, and does not provide for/represent an edge!

...price drops from the CDH to 61.8% of the main upmove today, ie the move from AL/CDL - CDH. You can see how last 4hr candle closed 17mins ago, on chart below.

4hr/1hr below

XAUUSD buy

...price is attempting another leg-up off that 61.8% fib referred to in my post above, re 30min bullish hidden div and 30min bullish pinbar close there, but has run into more supply in that upper wick of the 4hr bearish pinbar, referred to above. It's a repeating phenomenon re large/long 'spikes' whenthey are tested/retested.
NB: it wasn't the best set-up re 30min bullish hidden div as there is no real next higher t/f (in the t/f combo) - ie 2hr uptrend to enter, just an upmove on that t/f off 3252 YL, strong though it appears!

...1hr just closed bullishly but bulls are struggling to gain any more upside traction right now

1hr below

Absolute snooze fest. As soon as London session starts...BOOM...Everyone is out the door. Flat session day after day.

Hi. Depends on your operating t/f's and edge I guess. I've had 4 good hi-prob set-ups so far in my own trading session.

The Peril of "N=1" in Trading (The Most Important Point)
This is the comment's central argument.
Just because Event A (a government shutdown) was followed by Outcome B (a 500-pip rally) one time does not mean it will happen again.

The original "Zebi" alert likely fell victim to or encouraged confirmation bias.
(No personal attack Zeb, just observe from your previous post)
The comment is pushing back against a potentially tempting but flawed narrative ("U.S. government shutdown = automatic GBP/USD rally") and correctly identifying it as a statistical trap.

This is the tendency to search for, interpret, and remember information that confirms one's pre-existing beliefs.
Someone who wanted to believe in this correlation would latch onto the one time it worked and ignore the countless times similar events did not produce the expected result.

Financial markets are forward-looking.
The expectation of a government shutdown and its potential economic impact might have already been priced into the USD by the time the shutdown actually began.
The market often moves in anticipation of an event, and when the event finally occurs, the price action can be the opposite of what naive logic would suggest ("sell the news").

Focusing solely on the U.S. shutdown ignores the "GBP" side of the pair.
During these 14 days, what was happening in the UK?
· Was the Bank of England signaling a more dovish stance?
· Was UK inflation data coming in softer than expected?
· Were there concerning UK employment figures?
· Was the political situation stable?

What she has done easily overwhelm the isolated impact of a U.S. shutdown, which the market may have already viewed as a temporary political event with limited long-term economic impact.


The comment highlights this perfectly: "the market dipped to new lows."
This is the ultimate truth.
No story, no fundamental analysis, no historical correlation overrides what price is actually doing.
When my fundamental thesis says "go long" but the chart is making lower lows, the chart is right, and my thesis is wrong (or at least, premature).

As the last surviving newbie my point is :
Successful trading is not about finding one-off patterns; it's about developing a robust, tested system that manages risk and respects the price action above all else.

Zebi comment should serve as a warning to all traders: be wary of anyone selling "sure things" based on a single past event.
It's a perfect real-world example of why a simplistic, event-driven trading strategy is dangerous.