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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #24,901
  • Aug 16, 2007 3:39am Aug 16, 2007 3:39am
Morning all....

And bad news keep coming...

Down for the Count (Update 4)

" Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's Rams Home Loans Group Ltd. failed to refinance A$6.17 billion ($5 billion) of short-term U.S. loans, forcing the lender to seek emergency funding."

I'm long 9857 at the strong retail sales, SL 9800. Not confident, not comfortable, but piggybacked by strong fundi
  • #24,902
  • Aug 16, 2007 3:40am Aug 16, 2007 3:40am
Quoting kiranu
Trend lines can change from person to person. They can not be objective. Your position can effect your technical.
However, what about sentiments?

I think Bernanke is better than Grenspann. Because he is not speclator. He will not cut the rates because inflation is still a risk. At the same time, we see an improvment in the US economy. Next year, there is a election and democrat are coming. Look at the USDCHF when democrat was in the head.
of course there are risks but US is strong to manage this crisis.
what about EU and GB? we see clearly a slowdown in both of economy. Inflation is easing. If they do not increase their interest rate, we might see a big correction. it will not be a correction, it will be reversal.
If this is a medium term reversal, we can see more declining.
Let see close under 1.98 this week. if so, this means this is reversal.
(IMO)
we saw what happened to the US monetary policy since bernanke sit in his chair,,,
Don't forget that when the democrats took the congress, all analysis and expectations came positive to the US, but nothing from that happened, all i see here is a minor collapse in the US economy.
Regards,,
SER O NO SER, ESA ES LA CUESTION A SER O NO A SER, ESA EL LA PREGUNTA..
  • #24,903
  • Aug 16, 2007 3:42am Aug 16, 2007 3:42am
Quoting cesarnc
Morning all....

And bad news keep coming...

Down for the Count (Update 4)

" Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's Rams Home Loans Group Ltd. failed to refinance A$6.17 billion ($5 billion) of short-term U.S. loans, forcing the lender to seek emergency funding."

I'm long 9857 at the strong retail sales, SL 9800. Not confident, not comfortable, but piggybacked by strong fundi
Morning,
If we didn't get that bear spike before the release, we would be broken the daily resistant by now,,,
but who knows!!
SER O NO SER, ESA ES LA CUESTION A SER O NO A SER, ESA EL LA PREGUNTA..
  • #24,904
  • Aug 16, 2007 3:43am Aug 16, 2007 3:43am
relax, no reversal to downside yet,....the election are next year, even we the slo have election later this year, so come down,...the euro and gbp will go up, like they did at each single forex futures fresh buy (1 month to go)....thats why the interest rate statement are due in sept....they hike it again, and the ppl go long, tp new all time high, maybe one more time, then we go and make the reversal happen next year....when election are due for the usa, the only thing which can blow all this up is bernarke...and his 5.0, but even that will not change much i guess....we will see....
its just money
  • #24,905
  • Aug 16, 2007 3:49am Aug 16, 2007 3:49am
Quoting de123
relax, no reversal to downside yet,....the election are next year, even we the slo have election later this year, so come down,...the euro and gbp will go up, like they did at each single forex futures fresh buy (1 month to go)....thats why the interest rate statement are due in sept....they hike it again, and the ppl go long, tp new all time high, maybe one more time, then we go and make the reversal happen next year....when election are due for the usa, the only thing which can blow all this up is bernarke...and his 5.0, but even that will not change much i guess....we will see....
I second that. The bright side of a "trend" is that it just doesn't reverse out of the blue. BOE is still hawkish, afraid of overshooting, but hawkish. Bernanke may know what he's doing, but fails miserably to communicate (I personally doubt he knows what he's doing).

And GBP does not trend alone. Dollar itself is inside of a major long term downtrend backed by a strong deficit, that does nothing but increase monthly.

We are inside of a crisis that nobody knows exactly how bad it is. That's why the frenzy to unwind positions. People around the world vanish via exchange. Guess what when they decide to come back..
  • #24,906
  • Aug 16, 2007 3:49am Aug 16, 2007 3:49am
Quoting abulsaid
All I say here is: give me one "might", and sure I'll respond to that "might" by telling alot of "mights".

I HATE THAT WORD, WHENT IT COMES ALONE, WITHOUT A CHART OR AN EXPLANATION!!

HAVE A NICE TRADING DAY,, BEST WISHES TO YOUR SHORTS...
I'm still new in this forum. So far, I only see the economic calendar before. Just registered yesterday, and start my post today. So, let me get use to this forum first, then I'll incluede my opinions with charts and explaination as well.

Have a nice trading!
"TRUST YOUR FEELING" "TREND IS NOT ALWAYS YOUR FRIEND"
  • #24,907
  • Aug 16, 2007 4:07am Aug 16, 2007 4:07am
I cannot believe how bearish cable is right now. All the retail news seems to have done is stop it from falling. I am also amazed to what degree the USD is still considered the safest haven in turbulent times (given the underlying problem in the US economy).
Consistency and patience is everything
  • #24,908
  • Aug 16, 2007 4:09am Aug 16, 2007 4:09am
Quoting Qu|cksilver
Hi,
Does anyone agree cable may go up to 1.9050 area? or will continue bearish when the market open on monday?

we could consider the 2 opinions but each has criteria to be fulfilled if the cable tends to go in upside to the area of 1.9918 H3 in camerella indicators it needs to break the 1.9854 which is the L3 on camarella indicator if also holds above this level then target to 1.9950 H4 camarella ... on the other hand if 1.9822 support level L4 camarella the way is opened to 1.9769 the first target L5 camarella
In breif if we take in consideration the retail sales that had just released 0.7 higher than the previous release (0.2) and also higher than the forcasted (0.1) so I think it could reach the 1.9918 but with no further increase to maintaine the downside correction trend of the cable below 1.9928 the support level of the previous rising trend of cable

Good Luck
Ashraf Selim
  • #24,909
  • Aug 16, 2007 4:14am Aug 16, 2007 4:14am
dont be so hopeful for gbp in long term after this period.
there is no Blair anymore. they will increase rates at most one. then they will start to cut rates. this expection is enough for a big reversal.
of course in the short term it will go up. but financial crisis is in the beginning.
  • #24,910
  • Aug 16, 2007 4:20am Aug 16, 2007 4:20am
I closed all my sell trades
Sell @ 1.9940 @ 1.9830 (+110)
Sell @ 1.9930 @ 1.9830 (+100)
Sell @ 1.9925 @ 1.9830 (+95)
Total profit for today = 305 pips, I wasn't comfortable that's why I closed them all, I'll keep watching to check what I can do next, unclear for me at the moment
  • #24,911
  • Aug 16, 2007 4:23am Aug 16, 2007 4:23am
With every passing day is one day closer for when Bush takes his ass back to texas. coincedentaly with every passing day the attitude towards the U.S gets better. It doesnt matter who is the next president is going to be, even if Mickey Mouse were elected president it would bring more confidence in american policy.

http://anordinaryperson.files.wordpr...-bush-sign.jpg
Just Trade It
  • #24,912
  • Aug 16, 2007 4:24am Aug 16, 2007 4:24am
Quoting abulsaid
(IMO)
we saw what happened to the US monetary policy since bernanke sit in his chair,,,
Don't forget that when the democrats took the congress, all analysis and expectations came positive to the US, but nothing from that happened, all i see here is a minor collapse in the US economy.
Regards,,
Bernanke will not do same mistake as Grenspan did. He will wait and see. Congress does not mean anything. All power is in hand of Bush. Buffet is near the democrats. He is the major speculator in the currency. There are two option for Buffet to invest. Either USD or JPY. In both case gbp will be effected negative.
  • #24,913
  • Aug 16, 2007 4:24am Aug 16, 2007 4:24am
each time there is a financial crises in the news (and red cross the globe) it was a good time to go long...blair was a economy fan, brown, is a pound freak...so it should turn mega bullish (it did, when there was a replacement), just imagine if he pull back the tropps, this thing will blow up for 300 pips...its still this "blair" issue which holds this thing down, as a premier of east Iraq under the brits...i feel soory for those "Blair economy" soldiers stuck in Iraq...

Financial crisis is nothing else then RSI 19 on weekly chart...
its just money
  • #24,914
  • Aug 16, 2007 4:27am Aug 16, 2007 4:27am
1. As I said 3 hours ago short is loosing momentum.... 2. Trend change doesn't mean trend reversal. A trend reverses in stages most of the time. So a trend change might mean: range... Then there could be another change that is the previous trend might continue or reverse....

So short loosing momentum and we might enter into a waiting stage until US opens or more... I have liquidated my shorts for this reason and will reenter when I reenter
.
  • #24,915
  • Aug 16, 2007 4:30am Aug 16, 2007 4:30am
Quoting de123
each time there is a financial crises in the news (and red cross the globe) it was a good time to go long...blair was a economy fan, brown, is a pound freak...so it should turn mega bullish (it did, when there was a replacement), just imagine if he pull back the tropps, this thing will blow up for 300 pips...its still this "blair" issue which holds this thing down, as a premier of east Iraq under the brits...i feel soory for those "Blair economy" soldiers stuck in Iraq...

Financial crisis is nothing else then RSI 19 on weekly chart...
RSI 14 in weekly chart is important. If it close under 50, we will see what happen to gbp in the medium term.
again said that dont be hopeful for gbp. risks are improving for GB, for world. After this criss, Japans will come to play.
  • #24,916
  • Aug 16, 2007 4:33am Aug 16, 2007 4:33am
Quoting de123
Financial crisis is nothing else then RSI 19 on weekly chart...
LOL

The good news is: panic will vanish sometime, and GJ will explode 2,000 pips when time comes... UJ another 1,000. My eyes are glued to the carry trades, yes sir.
  • #24,917
  • Aug 16, 2007 4:37am Aug 16, 2007 4:37am
Quoting kiranu
RSI 14 in weekly chart is important. If it close under 50, we will see what happen to gbp in the medium term.
again said that dont be hopeful for gbp. risks are improving for GB, for world. After this criss, Japans will come to play.
Cīmon kiranu. Several doomsday posts already. One out of two:

1)- You know something we don't know, you don't wanna share, all that matters to you is "told'ya so" us eventually

2)- You have no idea what you're talking about and, like many users here, your calls are another strong indicator to long cable TP1 2.1, TP2 2.3.

  • #24,918
  • Aug 16, 2007 4:40am Aug 16, 2007 4:40am
Quoting cesarnc
Cīmon kiranu. Several doomsday posts already. One out of two:

1)- You know something we don't know, you don't wanna share, all that matters to you is "told'ya so" us eventually

2)- You have no idea what you're talking about and, like many users here, your calls are another strong indicator to long cable TP1 2.1, TP2 2.3.

.
  • #24,919
  • Aug 16, 2007 4:45am Aug 16, 2007 4:45am
Quoting cesarnc
Cīmon kiranu. Several doomsday posts already. One out of two:

1)- You know something we don't know, you don't wanna share, all that matters to you is "told'ya so" us eventually

2)- You have no idea what you're talking about and, like many users here, your calls are another strong indicator to long cable TP1 2.1, TP2 2.3.

awww.. come'on cesarnc.. its time to put it.. Kramer style..
  • #24,920
  • Aug 16, 2007 4:50am Aug 16, 2007 4:50am
Quoting cesarnc
Cīmon kiranu. Several doomsday posts already. One out of two:

1)- You know something we don't know, you don't wanna share, all that matters to you is "told'ya so" us eventually

2)- You have no idea what you're talking about and, like many users here, your calls are another strong indicator to long cable TP1 2.1, TP2 2.3.

come on guys...
i am not writing too often here.

the first time i wrote here i said that gbp would see. 2.0570-670 range. At that time it was 2.0300.
Then when it came to this range i warned everybody here. I said there would be correction and i could not say this was reversal. I said if we came under 2 and if wee saw under trendline, we could say this is reversal.
The last time i warned you was last week. It was around 2.0200 and i said we will see at least 2.
After this tuesday inflation report long term positions will be closed. I again say that if we see a close under 1.98 in the weekly period, this will be the important sing. this is my opinion. everything is up to you.
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