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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #24,881
  • Aug 16, 2007 1:51am Aug 16, 2007 1:51am
Quoting 1Sundevil
Still looking for Soros_Junior! Paging Soros (the GBP will be going to heaven and will NEVER get below 2.0 again)Junior! Where is that guy, in a soup line? Guess what....No Soup For you!
guess who's in the room.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #24,882
  • Aug 16, 2007 1:51am Aug 16, 2007 1:51am
Quoting Moe
look like a lot of the top doggs in this thread took a beating this week, reports or they been loosing pips.
You refering to who?
.
  • #24,883
  • Aug 16, 2007 1:53am Aug 16, 2007 1:53am
i think current level of cable is going to stablize at this point and i would say that pound might me bouce back to 2.0000 level again
  • #24,884
  • Aug 16, 2007 1:56am Aug 16, 2007 1:56am
Quoting bullrock
Shorts on Cable are loosing momentum no matter what...
yeap, since we are slowly coming in free444 land...776 so he can make a buk out of this, doesnt he deserve that?... , i agree with cannon, am waiting for that tornado to devisteade the 75% of texas+ florida (so suntrader can close those shorts and hide from it), and i expect 1 more earthquake in Kjoto, or somewhere in Japan, i hope 7-8, that will sure make a turnarround more quickly,...
its just money
  • #24,885
  • Aug 16, 2007 1:57am Aug 16, 2007 1:57am
Quoting Moe
GBPUSD

GBPUSD is in down trend. The fall from 2.0652 extended to as low as 1.9834, and further fall towards 1.9700 area is still possible in a couple of days. Near term resistance is at 1.9960, as long as this resistance holds, down trend will continue.
The further downtrend could reach 1.9505 as my Longest term MA is at right now.
Timing is the only secret ;p
  • #24,886
  • Aug 16, 2007 1:57am Aug 16, 2007 1:57am
Quoting Ali Imran
i think current level of cable is going to stablize at this point and i would say that pound might me bouce back to 2.0000 level again
in 3 days GU has droped almost 500 pips... What do you think??? What is the PROBABILITY for a further say 200 pips today? or 100?
.
  • #24,887
  • Aug 16, 2007 1:59am Aug 16, 2007 1:59am
My bias is short till my models says differently ... I said MOMENTUM and is my OPINION Whatever
.
  • #24,888
  • Aug 16, 2007 2:01am Aug 16, 2007 2:01am
Quoting bullrock
You refering to who?
if they or honest they will tell this thread.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #24,889
  • Aug 16, 2007 2:20am Aug 16, 2007 2:20am
Quoting bullrock
Shorts on Cable are loosing momentum no matter what...
I think that's exactly what's going on now,,,

but still!!

check the ticks chart, the pair is keep moving in a range.
Waiting for the next release...
9:30 am GBP Retail Sales m/m http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif (+++++) 0.1% 0.2%
SER O NO SER, ESA ES LA CUESTION A SER O NO A SER, ESA EL LA PREGUNTA..
  • #24,890
  • Aug 16, 2007 2:27am Aug 16, 2007 2:27am
Quoting Moe
GBPUSD

GBPUSD is in down trend. The fall from 2.0652 extended to as low as 1.9834, and further fall towards 1.9700 area is still possible in a couple of days. Near term resistance is at 1.9960, as long as this resistance holds, down trend will continue.
I agree with this. Cable might test 1.9700 in few days (soon i guess). And based on 4H and weekly, I can see he nearest resistance is at 1.9950/60 area. Currently still holding short since monday, short at 2.0199.

p/s : This is my 1st post anyway. (Lol)
"TRUST YOUR FEELING" "TREND IS NOT ALWAYS YOUR FRIEND"
  • #24,891
  • Aug 16, 2007 2:47am Aug 16, 2007 2:47am
Quoting Jigo_d'Vinci
I agree with this. Cable might test 1.9700 in few days (soon i guess). And based on 4H and weekly, I can see he nearest resistance is at 1.9950/60 area. Currently still holding short since monday, short at 2.0199.

p/s : This is my 1st post anyway. (Lol)
Since you say "might",,,, may i suggest you an idea.

this chart is a GU daily basis with a trend line (but not complete trend yet)
the question is: Why not to say that this trend might come to be truth today, and if it comes true, it's lowest point is 9767....
Don't consider "might" as an income source,,, do your homework!! and congrats for your running profits!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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SER O NO SER, ESA ES LA CUESTION A SER O NO A SER, ESA EL LA PREGUNTA..
  • #24,892
  • Aug 16, 2007 2:55am Aug 16, 2007 2:55am
i think the 866 level will be tested before any downtrend takes place...and may even continue upwards if that level is breached
  • #24,893
  • Aug 16, 2007 3:03am Aug 16, 2007 3:03am
I think there is only one thing driving the mkt right now and that is the perceived 'safe haven' of the USD.

For the time being, interest rate differentials and all the fundamentals are out of the window..

The slaughter in equities means all sorts of safeguards are kicking in with the institutions and cash is king - that cash is USD


If we are of the opinion that the pauper debt in the US is overplayed then there should be a recoil upwards when it's safe to go back in the water.

If we think this thing has permanent wrecking power over the world economy then ok USD/gold/sea shells

I think it will pass - therefore I think basically sound currencies like euro/gbp will rebound - but the time frame ? If the monetary authorities signal halt/cuts to take interest differential expectations back to what they were when cable was 2.06, and markets stabilise, then why not 2.02+ by end sept ? Fear is instant - we have seen that - but people have short memories too otherwise how did we get here a few years after the last meltdown - cycles depend on short memories

Actually, simply removing the fear should lower the USD index (safe haven) without ANY change in interest rate expectation differentials...but where is the starting point when the fear is removed - 1.8200 ?

ok this pontificating has no relevance for short term traders except that a rebound cannot be ruled out any more than the collapse should have been
You could interpret this as 'it might go up it might go down' but I reckon it will go up over 2.0000 as soon as it reaches the fear base line - and build from there.

Do chartists have 'fear base lines' drawn on an entirely new perspective entering the market ?
  • #24,894
  • Aug 16, 2007 3:05am Aug 16, 2007 3:05am
Quoting abulsaid
Since you say "might",,,, may i suggest you an idea.

this chart is a GU daily basis with a trend line (but not complete trend yet)
the question is: Why not to say that this trend might come to be truth today, and if it comes true, it's lowest point is 9767....
Don't consider "might" as an income source,,, do your homework!! and congrats for your running profits!!
Maybe I used unsuitable word to point out my view. But whatever it is, I believed people here understand what I'm trying to say.
"TRUST YOUR FEELING" "TREND IS NOT ALWAYS YOUR FRIEND"
  • #24,895
  • Aug 16, 2007 3:14am Aug 16, 2007 3:14am
Quoting allserene
Do chartists have 'fear base lines' drawn on an entirely new perspective entering the market ?
Yes we do, Its called Elliott Wave, which measures the graphical representation of crowd psychology
Just Trade It
  • #24,896
  • Aug 16, 2007 3:24am Aug 16, 2007 3:24am
Quoting Jigo_d'Vinci
Maybe I used unsuitable word to point out my view. But whatever it is, I believed people here understand what I'm trying to say.
All I say here is: give me one "might", and sure I'll respond to that "might" by telling alot of "mights".

I HATE THAT WORD, WHENT IT COMES ALONE, WITHOUT A CHART OR AN EXPLANATION!!

HAVE A NICE TRADING DAY,, BEST WISHES TO YOUR SHORTS...
SER O NO SER, ESA ES LA CUESTION A SER O NO A SER, ESA EL LA PREGUNTA..
  • #24,897
  • Aug 16, 2007 3:27am Aug 16, 2007 3:27am
Pay Attention For The Nest Release,, Because We're Near The Daily Low.
SER O NO SER, ESA ES LA CUESTION A SER O NO A SER, ESA EL LA PREGUNTA..
  • #24,898
  • Aug 16, 2007 3:30am Aug 16, 2007 3:30am
this is the spirit cable,,, 0.7% retail sales.... V.Good & unexpected + a revision from 0.2% to 0.4%

I hope this release put us on the right way..
SER O NO SER, ESA ES LA CUESTION A SER O NO A SER, ESA EL LA PREGUNTA..
  • #24,899
  • Aug 16, 2007 3:35am Aug 16, 2007 3:35am
hey cesar, what's up in your mind,,, is that the silence before the storm??
SER O NO SER, ESA ES LA CUESTION A SER O NO A SER, ESA EL LA PREGUNTA..
  • #24,900
  • Aug 16, 2007 3:35am Aug 16, 2007 3:35am
Trend lines can change from person to person. They can not be objective. Your position can effect your technical.
However, what about sentiments?

I think Bernanke is better than Grenspann. Because he is not speclator. He will not cut the rates because inflation is still a risk. At the same time, we see an improvment in the US economy. Next year, there is a election and democrat are coming. Look at the USDCHF when democrat was in the head.
of course there are risks but US is strong to manage this crisis.
what about EU and GB? we see clearly a slowdown in both of economy. Inflation is easing. If they do not increase their interest rate, we might see a big correction. it will not be a correction, it will be reversal.
If this is a medium term reversal, we can see more declining.
Let see close under 1.98 this week. if so, this means this is reversal.
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