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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #24,461
  • Aug 15, 2007 4:45am Aug 15, 2007 4:45am
I have been saying this alot lately and I will say it again.
DOWN CABLE DOWN.
Thats my professional technical anaylisis of technical fundamentals.

NOW SIT DOWN, SHUT UP AND HOLD ON! were going for a ride

But since I posted this I will probly be wrong.

http://www.superlaugh.com/fun/snowbaby.jpg
Just Trade It
  • #24,462
  • Aug 15, 2007 4:46am Aug 15, 2007 4:46am
I'll be offline for a while... See you all in the US session (waiting for the news releases)...

Happy trading, happy pips, happy day

Hello World
  • #24,463
  • Aug 15, 2007 4:48am Aug 15, 2007 4:48am
Quoting waf_1988
Awww...Man, for me...I need a full analysis technically to make me sure for the 1.9679 levels... Targeting on long term is not my choice, but if I have to... I'll say it later after doing my analysis...

How many days will it take to that level?!

I don't know I’m just asking!
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  • #24,464
  • Aug 15, 2007 4:57am Aug 15, 2007 4:57am
im not an elliot wave expert, but was wondering how many of those who use it suppose the 4rth wave of this downtrend is due?
  • #24,465
  • Aug 15, 2007 5:04am Aug 15, 2007 5:04am
Wierd European session so far....

What is in the oven?
  • #24,466
  • Aug 15, 2007 5:05am Aug 15, 2007 5:05am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
THis from HALO

Sterling’s two cent drop against the US Dollar in the last 24 hours was in a large part caused by the surprise drop in UK inflation but there are other factors in play as well. US data showed the prices paid by US producers were up 0.6 percent on the month and that was well above expectation; the US trade deficit not only narrowed in June to $58.1 billion but the May figure was revised down to $59.2 billion from $60 billion as well. So, despite another credit related drop in the US shares market, the US Dollar is still seen as a safe place to invest funds and the US Dollar is gathering strength from traders who share that view.
There is a chance that this afternoon’s figures will pour oil on the turbulent US Dollar waters because the expectation is for a slightly downturn in industrial production, housing sentiment and manufacturing optimism. However, as these data releases are already expected to be weaker, this is priced into the US Dollar value, which means that any good news will boost the US Dollar and we could well end the day with a downtrend on our hands which contrasts significantly with the path of the last 2 years. If we can end the week below $1.9850, we may even be in a complete change of direction and that could take us to $1.9000 within the much longer 6 year trend.
  • #24,467
  • Aug 15, 2007 5:11am Aug 15, 2007 5:11am
Hey ppl, what do you think of this?

Powerful rebound coming in the next days or a stamp for good of a couple of bad months to come.

100 Monthly EMA, combined with approaching monthly trend line.

Notice that the trend line doesn't have to be touched right now. If the EMA holds, price could end up sideways again, "waiting" for that line to arrive.

This is a GBP thread i know, but a major breakout there could have impact on other pairs.

http://img299.imageshack.us/img299/766/usdjpyde6.jpg
  • #24,468
  • Aug 15, 2007 5:12am Aug 15, 2007 5:12am
Quoting mr.m
im not an elliot wave expert, but was wondering how many of those who use it suppose the 4rth wave of this downtrend is due?
Which time frame are you talking about?
Just Trade It
  • #24,469
  • Aug 15, 2007 5:12am Aug 15, 2007 5:12am
Is it rational, that the currency of the country that caused all this hoo har by borrowing money it could not pay back, is the 'safe currency' that everyone is running to ?

It seems that fundamentals do matter and have re-asserted themselves

Does rationality need to adjust too ?

We have been asking the wrong question perhaps..
  • #24,470
  • Aug 15, 2007 5:15am Aug 15, 2007 5:15am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Which time frame are you talking about?
the 1hr..thanks in advance
  • #24,471
  • Aug 15, 2007 5:16am Aug 15, 2007 5:16am
Quoting MPP
THis from HALO
I agree with the view, but I don't agree with the rush. Data readings in one month does not set the tone for years to come.

It is how the data is trending that matters.

Also, rate changes has prompt psychological effect but as a matter of fact, takes MONTHS to hit the economic fundamentals.... (companies's long term investments, projections, payroll, so forth)

For instance: Current CPI 1.9% (after 3.1%, 2.8%, 2.4%) followed by 2.3% - 2.4% - 2.5% (for example)would call for further and fast rate hike.

But dooms saying usually pops up when cable moves that much that fast.
  • #24,472
  • Aug 15, 2007 5:20am Aug 15, 2007 5:20am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting cesarnc
I agree with the view, but I don't agree with the rush. Data readings in one month does not set the tone for years to come.

It is how the data is trending that matters.

Also, rate changes has prompt psychological effect but as a matter of fact, takes MONTHS to hit the economic fundamentals.... (companies's long term investments, projections, payroll, so forth)

For instance: Current CPI 1.9% (after 3.1%, 2.8%, 2.4%) followed by 2.3% - 2.4% - 2.5% (for example)would call for further and fast rate hike.

But dooms saying usually pops up when cable moves that much that fast.
Halo always provide the right info but post a negitive view on things as they are a currency broker for migrants and like to get people locking down prices with forward orders.

still the info is sometimes helpfull.
  • #24,473
  • Aug 15, 2007 5:27am Aug 15, 2007 5:27am
Quoting cesarnc
I agree with the view, but I don't agree with the rush. Data readings in one month does not set the tone for years to come.

It is how the data is trending that matters.

Also, rate changes has prompt psychological effect but as a matter of fact, takes MONTHS to hit the economic fundamentals.... (companies's long term investments, projections, payroll, so forth)

For instance: Current CPI 1.9% (after 3.1%, 2.8%, 2.4%) followed by 2.3% - 2.4% - 2.5% (for example)would call for further and fast rate hike.

But dooms saying usually pops up when cable moves that much that fast.
I agree because when cable was pushing 2.06's, lots of posters were forecasting 2.07, 2.10 and even 2.50.... now its doom and gloom and whack on the shorts.....

We have to wait and see now... I am out of this and watching...
  • #24,474
  • Aug 15, 2007 5:29am Aug 15, 2007 5:29am
Quoting mr.m
the 1hr..thanks in advance

Yes it is very possable that we could start wave 4 on the hourly which would also be wave 4 of 3 on the 4hr. Its just a question of ''when'' that wave will start.
Just Trade It
  • #24,475
  • Aug 15, 2007 5:36am Aug 15, 2007 5:36am
I hate it when the market ranges.
Just Trade It
  • #24,476
  • Aug 15, 2007 5:49am Aug 15, 2007 5:49am
Quoting allserene
I agree because when cable was pushing 2.06's, lots of posters were forecasting 2.07, 2.10 and even 2.50.... now its doom and gloom and whack on the shorts.....

We have to wait and see now... I am out of this and watching...
When cable first touched 2.0000 this year, talks were 2.0250 as target. Then when it came down to 9622, talks were "end of the trend". When it went up to 2.0652 talks were 2.1, now at 9900 -> "end of the trend". That being said, I go for "target 2.1"

Behavior also "trends" :
  • #24,477
  • Aug 15, 2007 5:52am Aug 15, 2007 5:52am
Quoting cesarnc
When cable first touched 2.0000 this year, talks were 2.0250 as target. Then when it came down to 9622, talks were "end of the trend". When it went up to 2.0652 talks were 2.1, now at 9900 -> "end of the trend". That being said, I go for "target 2.1"

Behavior also "trends" :
I agree, target is 2.1, it will take weeks/mnths
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #24,478
  • Aug 15, 2007 5:53am Aug 15, 2007 5:53am
Quoting cesarnc
When cable first touched 2.0000 this year, talks were 2.0250 as target. Then when it came down to 9622, talks were "end of the trend". When it went up to 2.0652 talks were 2.1, now at 9900 -> "end of the trend". That being said, I go for "target 2.1"

Behavior also "trends" :
Cesarnc, do you think there may be a move to 1.9700 then a bullish up move?
Fear is the mind killer.
  • #24,479
  • Aug 15, 2007 5:55am Aug 15, 2007 5:55am
Quoting cesarnc
When cable first touched 2.0000 this year, talks were 2.0250 as target. Then when it came down to 9622, talks were "end of the trend". When it went up to 2.0652 talks were 2.1, now at 9900 -> "end of the trend". That being said, I go for "target 2.1"

Behavior also "trends" :
To be or not to be, that's the question
  • #24,480
  • Aug 15, 2007 5:59am Aug 15, 2007 5:59am
My simple analysis.... In the coming months it could drop to 1.87ish.. Very UGLY.
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