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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #24,421
  • Aug 15, 2007 3:29am Aug 15, 2007 3:29am
Quoting waf_1988
The pair is seen to be deeply oversold in 4H chart. It can be either strong bear or a sign of bullish divergence...

Anyway, fundamentals is due out today, so... Like always, I'll stand aside and wait for further price confirmation before taking any new positions...

Where's my robot?!
I do not know I have this strange feeling that it might shoot to the North today.... Maybe to 2.0000... Just a feeling...
.
  • #24,422
  • Aug 15, 2007 3:32am Aug 15, 2007 3:32am
Sell @ 1.9914 SL BE
Sell @ 1.9925 SL BE
  • #24,423
  • Aug 15, 2007 3:35am Aug 15, 2007 3:35am
should it be going up?
  • #24,424
  • Aug 15, 2007 3:35am Aug 15, 2007 3:35am
Quoting bullrock
I do not know I have this strange feeling that it might shoot to the North today.... Maybe to 2.0000... Just a feeling...

i second that ...but need a break above 945 to be certain
  • #24,425
  • Aug 15, 2007 3:36am Aug 15, 2007 3:36am
Retracement is due, so just becareful shorties
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #24,426
  • Aug 15, 2007 3:37am Aug 15, 2007 3:37am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
08:30 UK ECON: MPC Voted 9-0 to Keep Base Rate at 5.75% on Aug 2 The minutes have been published in full on www.bankofengland.co.uk.

Found this on daily FX, not very good with info like this , but i am sure it will have an effect somewhere.

i welcome your opinions

add this

08:35 UK ECON: BoE MPC August Minutes Reveal 9-0 Vote London Aug 15

Act. Prev.
15Aug 08:30 GBP MPC vote Aug 9-0 3-6

The prospect of another interest rate hike from the Bank of England in the
next couple of months is likely to diminish further with the news that the rate-
setting body voted unanimously to keep its benchmark interest rate at 5.75 pct
unchanged at its meeting earlier this month.
Minutes to the Aug 2 meeting show that the nine-member panel did not even
discuss the need for a back-to-back rate rise to 6.00 pct, and that most members
emphasised that they had no firm view on whether rates actually need to rise
further.
Though the publication of the minutes has been largely overtaken by
yesterday's news that the annual CPI inflation rate fell below target in July to
1.9 pct, it does suggest that the appetite for further tightening in policy may
be waning. Courtesy of Thomson Financial News
  • #24,427
  • Aug 15, 2007 3:37am Aug 15, 2007 3:37am
(RTTNews) - Pound down amid BoE minutes; now at 1.9885 against dollar.For comments and feedback: contact [email protected]opyright(c) 2007 RealTimeTraders.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved

Wow...
Hello World
  • #24,428
  • Aug 15, 2007 3:39am Aug 15, 2007 3:39am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
i would like to know if my thoughts are correct no rate rise, down cable. the rate increase has been one of the driving forces behind the rise??

MPP
  • #24,429
  • Aug 15, 2007 3:41am Aug 15, 2007 3:41am
Quoting karmostaji
Retracement is due, so just becareful shorties
Yeah, now, I'll wait for the candle-close price. Hard to trade since I see 4H chart in deeply oversold...

I figure that the retracement shall move at most to 50% fibo level @ 1.9930 levels (15m chart)...

Shorties are more powerful in this market backed by those fundamentals
Hello World
  • #24,430
  • Aug 15, 2007 3:41am Aug 15, 2007 3:41am
Quoting MPP
i would like to know if my thoughts are correct no rate rise, down cable. the rate increase has been one of the driving forces behind the rise??

MPP
.
  • #24,431
  • Aug 15, 2007 3:45am Aug 15, 2007 3:45am
Quoting MPP
i would like to know if my thoughts are correct no rate rise, down cable. the rate increase has been one of the driving forces behind the rise??

MPP
Stemming from the prefectly efficient market hypothesis - the price discounts all 'expected news' so essentially what matters is what is expected next right this very moment! if the forecasted data is accurate the price should already be in a state of equilibrium...so i think while the potential for a rate increase has given cable its support what happens next will depend on what the market at large expects now and that nobody knows! hope that helps, anyway
  • #24,432
  • Aug 15, 2007 3:46am Aug 15, 2007 3:46am
But there is also a 800 pips drom from the top.....
.
  • #24,433
  • Aug 15, 2007 3:47am Aug 15, 2007 3:47am
Quoting mr.m
Stemming from the prefectly efficient market hypothesis - the price discounts all 'expected news' so essentially what matters is what is expected next right this very moment! if the forecasted data is accurate the price should already be in a state of equilibrium...so i think while the potential for a rate increase has given cable its support what happens next will depend on what the market at large expects now and that nobody knows! hope that helps, anyway
Yes, of course... Play the uncertainity with probabilities.... You DO NOT KNOW... what will happen ... Oh yes every indicator tell you what happened...
.
  • #24,434
  • Aug 15, 2007 3:50am Aug 15, 2007 3:50am
Quoting bullrock
What is your next TP? I saw that your TP @ 1.9930 was hit ya?! Mine @ 1.9950 (also hit)...

In 4H, the pair is deeply oversold, please advise....
Hello World
  • #24,435
  • Aug 15, 2007 3:55am Aug 15, 2007 3:55am
Quoting waf_1988
What is your next TP? I saw that your TP @ 1.9930 was hit ya?! Mine @ 1.9950 (also hit)...

In 4H, the pair is deeply oversold, please advise....
I have closed most of my shorts... I kept some and the target is 1.9700 but before maybe 1.9820 -1.9840
.
  • #24,436
  • Aug 15, 2007 3:55am Aug 15, 2007 3:55am
seems like a doji is forming on the 4hr...
  • #24,437
  • Aug 15, 2007 3:57am Aug 15, 2007 3:57am
Quoting bullrock
I have closed most of my shorts... I kept some and the target is 1.9700 but before maybe 1.9820 -1.9840
I have reached my weekly target
.
  • #24,438
  • Aug 15, 2007 3:57am Aug 15, 2007 3:57am
Quoting MPP
08:30 UK ECON: MPC Voted 9-0 to Keep Base Rate at 5.75% on Aug 2 The minutes have been published in full on www.bankofengland.co.uk.

Found this on daily FX, not very good with info like this , but i am sure it will have an effect somewhere.

i welcome your opinions

add this

08:35 UK ECON: BoE MPC August Minutes Reveal 9-0 Vote London Aug 15

Act. Prev.
15Aug 08:30 GBP MPC vote Aug 9-0 3-6

The prospect of another interest rate hike from the Bank of England in the
next couple of months is likely to diminish further with the news that the rate-
setting body voted unanimously to keep its benchmark interest rate at 5.75 pct
unchanged at its meeting earlier this month.
Minutes to the Aug 2 meeting show that the nine-member panel did not even
discuss the need for a back-to-back rate rise to 6.00 pct, and that most members
emphasised that they had no firm view on whether rates actually need to rise
further.
Though the publication of the minutes has been largely overtaken by
yesterday's news that the annual CPI inflation rate fell below target in July to
1.9 pct, it does suggest that the appetite for further tightening in policy may
be waning. Courtesy of Thomson Financial News
I think another UK rate hike is out of the question. With cpi figures like that (albeit one report), and housing /credit (which is big big big in the UK) being shot to bits - they would really bring the island to a full stop. The market knows it and has valued the £ accordingly - thing is though that the FED has to cut too ?

I am thinking the euro might be the one to watch - everyone in Europe lives in a rented apartment or has a full term fixed mortgage (slight exaggerations there), and they dont do equity withdrawal on the scale of the UK - their hikes or one hike, could still happen and with UK on hold and US cutting, that might be the one with some fuel left.

I always thought the UK was too much like the US as far as crazy credit etc was concerned, and thefore the gbp was getting ahead of itself...I bought a ton of dollars (real money) at 2.00 so I don't feel so bad now as when we were at 2.06...

fascinating situation captain
  • #24,439
  • Aug 15, 2007 4:04am Aug 15, 2007 4:04am
Quoting bullrock
I have closed most of my shorts... I kept some and the target is 1.9700 but before maybe 1.9820 -1.9840
Mmhhp..I look it differently, now I'll be picking 1.9867 near today's low, inch by inch --> pip by pip but of course, greater lots....^^

The pair has a good chance of facing a new low today, but...the way I trade is different nowadays...I will keep my trade as fast as possible to reach my TP, but larger lots (let the broker reach by the spreads)... I have different strategies for different market condition, especially with many fundamentals due out...^^
Hello World
  • #24,440
  • Aug 15, 2007 4:06am Aug 15, 2007 4:06am
Quoting mr.m
seems like a doji is forming on the 4hr...
But it closed below the lower part of candle. I think the bearish will continue for a while. At least, no clear upward signal to me. BTW, the price does not touch Pitchfork downtrend lower line yet.

I am holding short, but moved SL to daily S2 for lock my profit. The only question to me is: should I add more short below 9860?
- Ray Tracy - Novice forex trader from GMT+8
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