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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #23,761
  • Aug 12, 2007 3:54pm Aug 12, 2007 3:54pm
What works is very clear.... whatever the majority of ppl care about..

With more new traders entering on forex markets everyday, few are the ones who take the time to learn EW. I took the time just to realize that correlation = zero, when we start to get objective and not take any subjective counts, like usual.

And about the myth that says "Ew and fibonnacci are psicological patterns that we follow without consience", like some kind of subnatural miracle, i think how funny are the things that ppl invent to create fantasy worlds where everything can happen.

Ppl care about fibs because some genius guy put that in every traders mind, not because it is a divine ratio. Yes fibs work because we now care.

Anyway... what this means is that, YES EW might work in one market and not in another. It all depends how much EW traders are in each market, each pair, each time frame...

In a market with none EW traders, the best EW trader in the world would not gain nothing with it.

If every trader on forex was a EW trader... we would see milimetric EW patterns. ABCDE ABC ABCDE ABC... for eternity... I dont see that.



PS: Thanks for the magazine.
  • #23,762
  • Aug 12, 2007 4:47pm Aug 12, 2007 4:47pm
EW does work but it is not absolute. Nothing is.

EW does not work just because people follow it.

Don't believe that. I can post a chart of the dow from the crash of '29 period where fibs nbrs projected turning points. Now that is long before traders started using either EW or fibs.
  • #23,763
  • Aug 12, 2007 5:03pm Aug 12, 2007 5:03pm
Sun

exactly its universal ebb and flow and Elliot place principles to the observation
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #23,764
  • Aug 12, 2007 5:16pm Aug 12, 2007 5:16pm
believe me Cesar
this guy count EWs on 5M TF and he doing very well, I see his charts/entries/exits

the point is

if the overbought/oversold indicators success 100% it will be a FACT
if the EW success 100% it will be a FACT
if the fibonacci ret/exp/cycles/patterns success 100% it will be a FACT

if mathematical indicators, oscillators, volume, Gann lines, price action, Fractals, Candlesticks, Sentiment, Networks, pitchforks, ....etc
if all of this works 100% it will be a FACT

and if any of this converted to a fact then everyone can trade, and everyone can enter the market and win

this is the art of trading
I see great number of price action patterns failures, is this means the patterns don't work??!!

all the technical studies works but you have to know them you've to use one or more of them, believe in them, have confidence in them, and have mastered them and without searching about why it work
this for you SunTrader
  • #23,765
  • Aug 12, 2007 5:51pm Aug 12, 2007 5:51pm
With all the respect to people using EW, I rarely see winning trades by using EW, and I don't know why they stick to it, posting charts every min and every chart has different numbers than the other one, and when it comes to the target (one in a million) parties are held and the extended version 12 inch of the told yo so song to be played
  • #23,766
  • Aug 12, 2007 5:58pm Aug 12, 2007 5:58pm
The secret to EW is knowing all the counts sizes and patterns and then being flexible not rigid and adapt on the fly, but any market can be counted and fit in the parameters constructed by Elliot some 80+ years ago. So perhaps its all about being adept in the craft and not dismissing these universal functions displayed in all markets since the beginning of markets.
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #23,767
  • Aug 12, 2007 6:09pm Aug 12, 2007 6:09pm
trading the 5M blows my mind. My better trades last 2-3 days, at awesome r:r (well, in my sense). 5 pips a trades sucks.

I prefer going smaller lots for 50 pips, multiple pairs (EU, GU, UJ and sometimes Yen carries, in such a way the batch makes sense. Like not going long EU and short GU :

Less stressful.

Each one with their styles. But trying to IMPOSE your view is what I hate. That's why the hall of famer was created.
  • #23,768
  • Aug 12, 2007 6:26pm Aug 12, 2007 6:26pm
Quoting cesarnc

Each one with their styles. But trying to IMPOSE your view is what I hate. That's why the hall of famer was created.
I meant, "when the guy comes imposing his view" just to make it clear
  • #23,769
  • Aug 12, 2007 6:28pm Aug 12, 2007 6:28pm
I place every trade off the 1 min chart but thumb through the timeframes.
For you to see weakness or strength on the larger timeframes one must first see it on the small ones and see if it can or will transfer through the bigger picture
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #23,770
  • Aug 12, 2007 7:25pm Aug 12, 2007 7:25pm
Small Long 0230 on daily pin-bar (Friday), adding 0150, 0100, TP not sure.

Equivalent on Euro
  • #23,771
  • Aug 12, 2007 7:26pm Aug 12, 2007 7:26pm
Quoting OrionsWay
I place every trade off the 1 min chart but thumb through the timeframes.
For you to see weakness or strength on the larger timeframes one must first see it on the small ones and see if it can or will transfer through the bigger picture
I think it is better to look the other way around. Find weakness on higher timeframe first and then enter on shorter timeframe.
  • #23,772
  • Aug 12, 2007 7:31pm Aug 12, 2007 7:31pm
look like things is about to get real ugly for the u.s. dollar, when shit hit the fan im on the train. got my sell stop and buy stop orders in.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #23,773
  • Aug 12, 2007 7:52pm Aug 12, 2007 7:52pm
Quoting Moe
look like things is about to get real ugly for the u.s. dollar, when shit hit the fan im on the train. got my sell stop and buy stop orders in.
That's what the "trend" says. Question is when. I decided to be in the same side of the railroad when that train leaves...

That's my view: 2.0000 strong support, so 0200s represent risk 200 pips reward 200 pips for another test 0400, 450 pips (for a double top) or more if trend resumes. It's worth the shot big time.

Scanario fails miserably below 9900, but bet on sub-9900 now makes less sense than 0650

Also betting on bear on bad hangover in the stock market. No way he's got liver enough for all the bulls he ate last week.

http://anitacaty.blogs.sapo.pt/arqui...ver%20copy.jpg
  • #23,774
  • Aug 12, 2007 7:53pm Aug 12, 2007 7:53pm
we got some good news comming out on monday so we should see some good movement
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #23,775
  • Aug 12, 2007 7:57pm Aug 12, 2007 7:57pm
Quoting cesarnc
That's what the "trend" says. Question is when. I decided to be in the same side of the railroad when that train leaves...

That's my view: 2.0000 strong support, so 0200s represent risk 200 pips reward 200 pips for another test 0400, 450 pips (for a double top) or more if trend resumes. It's worth the shot big time.

Scanario fails miserably below 9900, but bet on sub-9900 now makes less sense than 0650
eathier way cesarnc il be on the right side of the track weather heading north or south, it call price trap system. everthing pointing north mabe to 600 range. who know's just give me some pips.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #23,776
  • Aug 12, 2007 7:58pm Aug 12, 2007 7:58pm
Quoting Moe
we got some good news comming out on monday so we should see some good movement
Yup, busy week. Just the way we like it....:
  • #23,777
  • Aug 12, 2007 8:01pm Aug 12, 2007 8:01pm
Quoting cesarnc
Yup, busy week. Just the way we like it....:
could be another week like last week where price could drop 200 pips then go up 200 pips or vice versa if so we looking at some big pips 450 i prefer.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #23,778
  • Aug 12, 2007 8:51pm Aug 12, 2007 8:51pm
Quoting Moe
could be another week like last week where price could drop 200 pips then go up 200 pips or vice versa if so we looking at some big pips 450 i prefer.


BTW:

Quote
CNBC
Asian stocks rose in the morning session Monday with financial shares such as Macquarie Bank recovering, after central banks around the world pumped billions of dollars into banking systems in an effort to ease a widening credit crisis.

I say "PUMP UP THE CASH, PUMP IT UP, PUMP IT UP" http://forum.gtarena.net/images/smilies/smiley_rock.gif
  • #23,779
  • Aug 12, 2007 9:13pm Aug 12, 2007 9:13pm
Sun, yep was just illustrating how it transfers from 1 min to a confirmation, myself i dont wait for the confirmation, no need once you see what you need to see and STOPs are always best R:R possible or minor losses

catch u all in the AM
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #23,780
  • Aug 12, 2007 11:44pm Aug 12, 2007 11:44pm
Ok, lets put it this way.

In a escale of 0 to 10 considering a pattern that supposedly work from time to time. (as you say)

EW...

Efficiency 1... (looking back in charts, rare are the moments when we see a clear ew pattern that dont involve imagination)

(1 because, despite rare and statistically far below the theoretical constant existance claimed by his creator (this is what i criticize), it do exist sometimes.

Reliability 0... (we see ppl trying to call multi year reversals at an everyday basis based on counts. What did they got? A broken account and a special place of the hall of fame. This is a fact.)

(0 reliability because its very probable that 1 of that traders that ended up with big losses based on counts, was a magnificent EW trader.)

He lost because he counted waves at a time that the patterns didnt occured, like most of the times, and so... he lost on Bad Luck.

Traders shouldn't lost on bad luck, so thats why... 0 for reliability.
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