Cable Update (GBPUSD)

this thing might shoot up without looking back.

Liked that... It's worth leaving a troop of long soldiers just above this ema, just in case http://forum.gtarena.net/images/smilies/smiley_rock.gif

Made my mind already... Not gonna put my chips on "we've seen the bottom", and will ease on the blind seeling on rally in case I'm wrong... Better going on catching up with the market as it goes.

Another failure at 0400 area and I'll short the crap out of it.

de123

I'm not sure i did understand your theory based on the first and second charts. Correct me if i'm wrong.

Your view is that we can go for 2.0000, but the last major high (2.0131) will act as a pivot... Is that it?

Gbp/Usd, and above all Eur/Usd, dont seem to be following that logic in previous times. They seem to break previous major highs (acting as support) and then end up being fake daily chart breakouts. The only difference this time is that major previous high having a perfect convergence with the 50% fib, usualy difficult.


Now regarding that weekly emas, i might be wrong but i just dont get it where do that emas come from.

Think about it...

IF we started to input emas on our graph 1 ema, 2 ema, 3 ema....ema ema ema ema 10000000 ema....

Im sure.. we will find ema support for ALL lows and highs in the entire forex history. Some of it will coincide with 2 or 3 lows/high i a row, but thats it.

Its my belief that the important emas are the ones that we are sure that everybody or the great majority is watching.

Who doesn't care about a 50... 100 ... 200 ema? I do...! Why?

1- Because they are clearly psicological levels easy to everyone remember.
2- Because they have long term true importance.

The big money thinks "hey this country is doing bad, but are fundamentals bad enough to cross a 100 daily ema". "No. So lets wait."

Now.. 21? 89? I've seen even 365 H4 smas on a guy blog.

Believe me. I'm always ready to learn more important things. But first i have to understand why does anyone should care about so wierd emas, with numbers without any visible meaning.

Its easy to understand what im saying... just open Google and search for any ema, and then search for 200 ema... Oh boy. Thousands of sites with 200 ema strategies.

Well. This is just an opinion. If i get proven wrong, i probably will change for better.

That's the beauty of the excessive tech bullshit. We have a warehouse of technical indicators that we can use to PROVE our mindset. That's freaking dangerous.

And I agree with you and long time ago I issued a challenge here, never answered:

Bring me a non-edited video footage of Bernanke or Trichet or King or Fukui in which they say loud and clear:

- "We must raise interest rates because the currency is WAAAYYY oversold in the RSI"

- "Please Jack, release some sort of rumour to the market because the wave 3 is already traded. We must provide the wave 4 for those EW-ers in the Forex Factory, thanks."

And I will surrender to the techcrap.

1 long term fibo, 2 trendlines, 1 ema and I'm done.

[quote=Warper;1534037]de123

I'm not sure i did understand your theory based on the first and second charts. Correct me if i'm wrong.

Your view is that we can go for 2.0000, but the last major high (2.0131) will act as a pivot... Is that it?
quote]
no...i am talking abou a possible bottom,...its either 2.0150 or numbers at close to september the 15...no emas no mas, just round numbers & comon sense....
thats a pure respond to cesar poll,...not intended to be offendend, the market will do what whatever he wont to....but i got a feeling im gona scream long gold long in weeks to come...lets see....prepare your self with bullsit protector....maybe bearshit...

I am partial to the 4181 EMA.

Hey its a fibo number. Trouble is you have to load 17 years of data to get it to show. It's presently at 1.6807 so I guess the uptrend is still intact. I'll check back in a year or two and let you know.



Please don't trade based on the above expert tech/anal.

:

I presently think the pair is in an abcde correction abc has been formed and for d to be formed i see the pair moving to 2.0300/20 before headed for a final fall towards 2.0138

Yeah i remember something like "What about King in front of his laptop waiting to sell pound after the close of a candle."

I think this "central banks" examples are the best, but i often use another example that i think its the biggest proof against overbough/oversold indicators.

I wonder how many times in this last years, so many intraday jpy traders must said,

"this is getting overbough, stochastics are about to blow...... its better to get out..."

they close...

"DAMN.... i missed more 300 pips "


BTW

Now that you bring EW... did anyone saw that "mister fibonacci" guy on Bloomberg?

Its one guy that apears on weekends to make a technicall preview of the times to come, on stock market and a few currencies.

What makes me get stunned is that he bases his entire analysis, on pure fibonnacci and EW.

He is one of those guys that use fibonacci numbers not only with the price but to count days before a major change.

He said that he called this last big drop by the day, based on fib extension.

His predictions were basicly that the stock market will continue to drop to a third correction wave bigger than the previous.

He predicts a drop on Dow of about 1100 to 1200 points until October... when we should start to buy. He sees FTSE 100 below 6000 going for 5600 to 5700.

And he said. This will happen..... this are not scenarios.

Well, i dont know if he is right or wrong, but i wonder how come Bloomberg invites analysts that resume the entire world events on wave counts and armeggeadon days based on fib numbers.

This reminds me one time in this forum a guy saying completly sure that the drop in February had nothing to do with a 9% drop on China Stock Market.

EW predicted that, long time ago...

Well. I'm glad that im a person that when believes in something, at least i try to have a good explanation to why it works.

I laugh when i see someone counting wave and then... "oh well this is sill rising... lets start counting again"... and the bad waves they put an "X" and start counting again. Omg.

I'm sorry but it's so much easier to understand funds.



PS: de123 i think no one is offending nobody. I asked with the pure intent to understand, and the EMAs talk were not based on your theory.

Love you Cesar........

Just to make it clear: Elliot Waves are awesome in the very long term. Check USD-index 1 year for example and it will appear beautifully.

Problem is that we don't trade the monthly chart for 500-600 pips a month. We are greedy bastards demanding 9,000 pips a day like bravado. So we gotta pursuit other indications...

Look at you guys, cant leave even on the weekend. The first step is to admit your addiction, The second step is to do something thats does something for your addiction. Damm I have one HUGE hangover, I am NEVER EVER drinking again......... At least until wednesday.

i knew person from chat room whose use EW at 5M TF and his trades are very very profitable

That is the right smiley

C´moooon benssol... 5M chart is so damn noisy that you can find EW counts everywhere.... Just be sure it's not "1 min to NFP" when doing this...



Now seriously: what convinced me that short timeframes EW sucks is that I've read more "ooops, gotta rethink my wave counts" than heard the song:
"Toldya so
Toldya so
Toldya todya
Toldya so"
http://www.pegasusclubfc.co.uk/Smiley_dancing_12258.gif

This whole thread is noise

"Do you think I'm funny? Funny how? Funny like a clown???"

Watchout pino2...



1:30

What do you mean funny, funny how, tell me, tell me what's funny
I bet the guy in this video was cesarnc

Not sure if any of you already subscribe to this, its free membership though
www.currencytradermag.com/ctli72.htm

looks nice... gonna try it out