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Statistical Probability Trading With Price Action

  • #461
  • Aug 6, 2007 6:14pm Aug 6, 2007 6:14pm
Tp hit. Thanks Goodthings. Pippo
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #462
  • Aug 7, 2007 12:32am Aug 7, 2007 12:32am
Quoting Pippopotamus
Tp hit. Thanks Goodthings. Pippo
you pulled the trigger and set your marks. Good job.
  • #463
  • Aug 7, 2007 4:54am Aug 7, 2007 4:54am
This is some (SP) information for what happens the next after gbpusd retraces to these levels the day of the established high and lows. Daily fibs are used as retracement levels for the day the high and low is established and into the next trading day.



No Fib Retracement


21 times this year has the gbpusd ended the day not retracing to any fib level.
20 times it has retraced the next day to at least the 23.6 fib level for a 95.2% statistical probability.
14 times it has retraced the next day to at least the 38.2 fib level for a 67% statistical probability.
9 times it has retraced the next day to at least the 50.0 fib level for a 42.8% statistical probability.
6 times it has retraced the next day to the 61.8 fib level for a 28.5% statistical probability and all those times there was a next day trend reversal.


23.6 Fib
27 times this year has the gbpusd ended the day with a max fib retracement to 23.6 fib level .
16 times it has retraced the next day to at least the 38.2 fib level for a 63% statistical probability.
11 times it has retraced the next day to at least the 50.0 fib level for a 41 % statistical probability.
7 times it has retrace the next day to at least the 61.8 fib level for a 26 % statistical probability
After it has reached the 61.8 fib level the daily trend then has changed from a bear run to a bull run or visa versa 6 times for a 85.7 % statistical probability of a trend change after it has gone from 23.6 fib at the end of the day to the 61.8 fib during the next trading day.



38.2 Fib

25 times this year has the gbpusd ended the day with a max fib retracement to 38.2 fib level .
20 times it has retraced the next day to the 50 fib level for an 80% statistical probability.
16 times it has retraced the next day to the 61.8 fib level for an 64% statistical probability.
After it has reached the 61.8 fib level the daily trend then has changed from a bear run to a bull run or visa versa 5 times for a 31.2 % statistical probability of a trend change after it has gone from 38.2 fib at the end of the day to the 61.8 fib during the next trading day.


50.0 Fib

18 times this year has the gbpusd ended the day with a max fib retracement to the 50.0 fib level.
8 times it has retraced the next day to the 61.8 fib level with a 44% statistical probability.
After it has reached the 61.8 fib level the daily trend then has changed from a bear run to a bull run or visa versa 5 times for a 60.0 % statistical probability of a trend change after it has gone from 50.0 fib at the end of the day to to the 61.8 fib during the next trading day .

61.8 Fib

61 times this year the GbpUsd has ended the day retracing to the 61.8 fib level. When this happened then 29 times the following day the trend has reversed for a statistical probability of 47.5% trend reversal.
  • #464
  • Edited 10:50am Aug 7, 2007 5:08am | Edited 10:50am
Great info, do you have these same stats for last 31 weeks of 2006? would be nice to see what you mean by saying that GBP USD has changed flavor since last year.

It had dawned on me also that possibly rate changes on either currency within the trials period, makes any statistical probability become much less valid.
  • #465
  • Aug 7, 2007 11:25am Aug 7, 2007 11:25am
Quoting bobblong
Great info, do you have these same stats for last 31 weeks of 2006? would be nice to see what you mean by saying that GBP USD has changed flavor since last year.

It had dawned on me also that possibly rate changes on either currency within the trials period, makes any statistical probability become much less valid.
What I mean is the (RM) range of motion is less these days compared to most of last year. See posts 461 and 463.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=27624&page=31
  • #466
  • Aug 7, 2007 2:06pm Aug 7, 2007 2:06pm
Quoting goodthings
Thats a good question I have no real information on that. Even though I now trade the gbpjpy mostly I have not a lot of statistical information on it. I trade that about half the time and the eurjpy 25% of my trades gbpusd about 20% and others the rest. Been wanting to get a handle on the EurAud for a while been watching it for a about 4 months now. Back to the gbpjpy what I do is hop in on a break out and some times like last week I take a short ride of 40 pips or I was fortunate to take a couple of different rides last week for around 180 pips. Also I closed out of a bad trade Friday that I had been in for a week and half with a 40 pip loss or so. Got in on the wrong side of that one. Working on a couple of other projects now maybe get a look at it later on in the week. Maybe if you get time you can look at it and post the results. One of the projects is looking at the gbpusd fibs more closely. I have put so much time into that pair I need to start trading it more. Last year I traded it 90% of the time but it started taking on a different flavour so I picked up on the gbpjpy and eurjpy.
i am to trading gj and ej but at daily , i would like to make the study... but i am looking for an indicator can give me the fib for every day or week (historical fib indicator) to make historical study and that will be very good indicator to make the study.. ..
also i am using daily breakout system to trade and using the daily fib to go out from the trade ,so what i am going to do is to see the Statistical Probability Trading With Price Action to find method in between my system and your study..
....
  • #467
  • Aug 7, 2007 7:20pm Aug 7, 2007 7:20pm
On the daily GbpUsd is at a historical s/r and has retraced beyond the monthly 61.8 Fib.
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  • #468
  • Aug 7, 2007 7:31pm Aug 7, 2007 7:31pm
A look at the GbpUsd weekly from a 4hr perspective. It is extending into the (SPWAR) of 25%. Meaning that the (SP) of it going beyond the 2.0173 is 25%.
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  • #469
  • Aug 7, 2007 7:36pm Aug 7, 2007 7:36pm
UsdJpy weekly range probabilites.
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  • #470
  • Aug 7, 2007 9:19pm Aug 7, 2007 9:19pm
(DRP) Daily range probabilities for the GbpChf on the down side with a BEIB on the 4hr with a bounce off of the 21 ema resistance.
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  • #471
  • Aug 7, 2007 9:32pm Aug 7, 2007 9:32pm
(DRP) Daily Range Probabilites for the gbpjpy on the bearish side
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  • #472
  • Aug 7, 2007 9:46pm Aug 7, 2007 9:46pm
I've found a way I wont have to draw fibs or go back in time to charts. Doing it all in excel with 8 years of historical data

I am testing for retracement/no retracement before week's end and 61.8 before new high/low on the following week, ret to 50.0 or more following week and ret to 38.2 or less before new high or low on the following week

I wonder how valid the results will be. What do you think goodthings? Provided all the calculations are done correctly within the excel functions etc

8 years is a long time, statistics people say more data = more correct probability. I dont know what may have changed since 1999. Technology? more traders? Different traders?
  • #473
  • Aug 7, 2007 10:11pm Aug 7, 2007 10:11pm
Weekly Range Probabillites for GbpJpy on the bearish side.
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  • #474
  • Aug 7, 2007 10:30pm Aug 7, 2007 10:30pm
Quoting bobblong
I've found a way I wont have to draw fibs or go back in time to charts. Doing it all in excel with 8 years of historical data

I am testing for retracement/no retracement before week's end and 61.8 before new high/low on the following week, ret to 50.0 or more following week and ret to 38.2 or less before new high or low on the following week

I wonder how valid the results will be. What do you think goodthings? Provided all the calculations are done correctly within the excel functions etc

8 years is a long time, statistics people say more data = more correct probability. I dont know what may have changed since 1999. Technology? more traders? Different traders?
Yes more data the better. If you look at weekly fib retracements this year compared to last year it is close with the exception of the 61.8 Fib. This information helps me to understand the Market Motion and know to some extent what to expect.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 7 GbpUsd Weekly Retracements.jpg Size: 55 KB
  • #475
  • Edited 11:32pm Aug 7, 2007 10:45pm | Edited 11:32pm
Here is a comparison for the gbpusd daily retracements of 2006 and 2007. This data looks at over 400 days. So what goes on consistently on a daily basis will show up in a similar way on the weekly charts too. I suppose the monthly too but I do not look at them often.
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  • #476
  • Aug 8, 2007 3:52am Aug 8, 2007 3:52am
Quoting bobblong
I've found a way I wont have to draw fibs or go back in time to charts. Doing it all in excel with 8 years of historical data

I am testing for retracement/no retracement before week's end and 61.8 before new high/low on the following week, ret to 50.0 or more following week and ret to 38.2 or less before new high or low on the following week

I wonder how valid the results will be. What do you think goodthings? Provided all the calculations are done correctly within the excel functions etc

8 years is a long time, statistics people say more data = more correct probability. I dont know what may have changed since 1999. Technology? more traders? Different traders?
i think the best way to trade should be depend on fib
as you can see in this link all the world have the fib in it,
http://www.mcs.surrey.ac.uk/Personal...t.html#Rabbits
also i think to have record for only one year in fib indicator will give you the good idea about the trading using fib, coz it is different from any anther indicators ,
by study the fib will let us creating very good strategy ,
for indicator maybe you can find compantion in between these two indicators to find what we need.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 WeeklyPivot.mq4   5 KB | 887 downloads
File Type: mq4 fibocalc_V31.mq4   12 KB | 939 downloads
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  • #477
  • Edited 6:13am Aug 8, 2007 5:59am | Edited 6:13am
Quoting sami772
i think the best way to trade should be depend on fib
as you can see in this link all the world have the fib in it,
http://www.mcs.surrey.ac.uk/Personal...t.html#Rabbits
also i think to have record for only one year in fib indicator will give you the good idea about the trading using fib, coz it is different from any anther indicators ,
by study the fib will let us creating very good strategy ,
for indicator maybe you can find compantion in between these two indicators to find what we need.

We know that sami. You do not need any charts to know what the fib levels are. For automated calculation you just identify wether it is a bullish or bearish movement using high,low,close of the swing and in my case the open price in the beginning of the following week then you do
(Range in Pips / 100) x 123.6 or 161.8 or whatever level you want to find it will tell you how far in pips this level is from the top or bottom of the swing, in respect to bullish or bearish movement.

I think I will have results in about a week or more if I don't run into any problems with the logic

p.s I checked out that fibo indicator, too funky for my charts
  • #478
  • Aug 9, 2007 3:27am Aug 9, 2007 3:27am
Quoting bobblong
We know that sami. You do not need any charts to know what the fib levels are. For automated calculation you just identify wether it is a bullish or bearish movement using high,low,close of the swing and in my case the open price in the beginning of the following week then you do
(Range in Pips / 100) x 123.6 or 161.8 or whatever level you want to find it will tell you how far in pips this level is from the top or bottom of the swing, in respect to bullish or bearish movement.

I think I will have results in about a week or more if I don't run into any problems with the logic

p.s I checked out that fibo indicator, too funky for my charts
ok i fund this one from Mr Iya
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 SRDC Fibo AHA V0_4a.mq4   6 KB | 982 downloads
....
  • #479
  • Aug 10, 2007 6:09pm Aug 10, 2007 6:09pm
This is a correction on the comparison between all of 2006 and current 2007 daily retracements. I had them turned around on post 499.
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  • #480
  • Aug 11, 2007 1:44pm Aug 11, 2007 1:44pm
Below links gives a list of terminology and WAR weekly average range for 12 currencies.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Terminology.GIF Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: WAR I.jpg Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: WAR II.jpg Size: 34 KB
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