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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #22,701
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:53pm Aug 6, 2007 4:53pm
Will the Dow and Jpy pairs get uncorrelated just tomorrow?

Rate cut prospects bad for a currency, bad for carry trades but good for stock market.

Rate cut might weaken the dollar versus euro and gbp, but a major unwinding normally weakens euro and gbp also.

Only techs will tell, unfortunally, and i dont like it.
  • #22,702
  • Aug 6, 2007 5:01pm Aug 6, 2007 5:01pm
I'm under the impression that if the fed cuts rates or is very dovish than the carry trades will rebound sharply including the us/yen.
  • #22,703
  • Aug 6, 2007 5:06pm Aug 6, 2007 5:06pm
I put a pending order long EUR/USD 1.3814. (The down trend line at m30 chart almost break) and the US interest rate won't be increased so EUR/USD may be bullish. Take profit 1 = 1.3828, take profit 2 = 1.3869. Cable is also rounding bottom at m30 minute chart or may be bullish.
  • #22,704
  • Aug 6, 2007 5:08pm Aug 6, 2007 5:08pm
Quoting Warper
Will the Dow and Jpy pairs get uncorrelated just tomorrow?

Rate cut prospects bad for a currency, bad for carry trades but good for stock market.

Rate cut might weaken the dollar versus euro and gbp, but a major unwinding normally weakens euro and gbp also.

Only techs will tell, unfortunally, and i dont like it.
FED is not cutting rates tomorrow. Economy is still giving mixed signs (strong GDP / weak housing), which makes the market feel "hike" one day and "cut" on the other.

Then comes FED: 20 bucks as we will see:
- Housing no signs of spillover
- Subprime not contaminating the market
- Inflation still the core concern.

Dollar bullish or bearish will depend, as always, on the words the market will look for: vigilance, strong vigilance, opinion regarding bravado's trades, so forth...

I'll be looking for the stock market reaction, that reflects on the carry trades shooting pips everywhere, whatever the direction http://www.lavinya.net/phpBB2/images...miley_rock.gif
  • #22,705
  • Aug 6, 2007 5:16pm Aug 6, 2007 5:16pm
I think the DJ might have something to say too.

I'll listen to her anytime. You spin me right round baby.
  • #22,706
  • Aug 6, 2007 5:24pm Aug 6, 2007 5:24pm
Quoting cesarnc
I'll be looking for the stock market reaction, that reflects on the carry trades shooting pips everywhere, whatever the direction http://www.lavinya.net/phpBB2/images...miley_rock.gif
Exactly.

I,m just deciding on what pair should i trade the reaction.

Usd/jpy has a downside channel on H4... lower highs, lower lows.

Gbp/jpy is sideways/triangle.

I guess the first option is the better despite the ton of pips that gbp/jpy gave the traders last time .

You trade both right? lool
  • #22,707
  • Aug 6, 2007 5:32pm Aug 6, 2007 5:32pm
Quoting Warper

You trade both right? lool
Yes, but I go heavier in UJ, less volatile. On GJ I keep trading small portions, cutting small losses, trying again until the home run kicks in.

You have to bear in mind that every pip UJ moves, GJ moves 2.03. While every pip GU moves, GJ moves 1.1. So UJ is calling the shots here.

This way, you can go short GU and long GJ/long UJ no conflict

When GU and UJ move together, than the process accelerate.
  • #22,708
  • Aug 6, 2007 6:03pm Aug 6, 2007 6:03pm
yeah i've done that math already.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=12663

I just like to fire all of my "weapons" in 1 position to maintain the better focus i can. I know its possible to maintain easy focus in 2 or 3 open trades, but i tend to look for possible mistakes even after opening a trade. Just when i realize that there is nothing wrong, i look away and wait. But if i notice a mistake i have just one trade to close and just one to re open if i have to.

And another important thing is that i can have a much bigger SL with the same risk, trading just one position.


Btw, can you tell what was your biggest home run so far?
  • #22,709
  • Aug 6, 2007 6:26pm Aug 6, 2007 6:26pm

i think if 1 hour candle close above 0330 cable would able make it through at 0430...just an opinion..

"Analysis Is Hard But Trade Is Easy"
  • #22,710
  • Aug 6, 2007 6:34pm Aug 6, 2007 6:34pm
Quoting Warper

Btw, can you tell what was your biggest home run so far?
I've had some. But the unforgetable one was long GJ at 221, after the Chinese panic in Feb/Mar

On trading 1 position only, I choose split the lots among EU, GU and carry trades when they are favoured. This way, you are better exposed to the pair that is going to run faster.

For instance, while cable was diving almost 200 pips today, Euro was drop dead. So if you were short Euro, you would be watching the party from the other side of the street

Also, when Cable died, UJ had its homerun when Dow Jones got the rocket up its ass. Then it was all about collecting the pips....
  • #22,711
  • Aug 6, 2007 6:37pm Aug 6, 2007 6:37pm
Quoting cesarnc
I've had some. But the unforgetable one was long GJ at 221, after the Chinese panic in Feb/Mar

On trading 1 position only, I choose split the lots among EU, GU and carry trades when they are favoured. This way, you are better exposed to the pair that is going to run faster.

For instance, while cable was diving almost 200 pips today, Euro was drop dead. So if you were short Euro, you would be watching the party from the other side of the street

Also, when Cable died, UJ had its homerun when Dow Jones got the rocket up its ass. Then it was all about collecting the pips....
And BTW, I used to go long GU, GJ and UJ, so when dollar was moving, I was taking profit in one pair, getting a bottom in the other and would benefit from the GJ going up. But as the carry trades are no longer trending fast, this strategy fails. Better catch up with the carries after DJ open.
  • #22,712
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:31pm Aug 6, 2007 11:31pm
Hi all.....
I've been following this thread for quite some times .... congrats to u all....
  • #22,713
  • Aug 7, 2007 1:52am Aug 7, 2007 1:52am
long Eur 3651.............limit.........active
long Cbl 0244.............limit.........active
long Chf 2038.............limit.........active
short Cad 0680...........limit.........active
long Eur 3680............limit..........active
long Cbl 0340............limit..........active
short Cad 0550.........limit...........active

will add more Eur longs on a break above 3820....its quite clear that the direction is up....my target for all Eur longs is 1.4000...and even above that area 1.4100.....I'll be lockin in profits on our wau up.

Breeze
  • #22,714
  • Aug 7, 2007 2:13am Aug 7, 2007 2:13am
Hello zamans its kinda getting dead here without you....where are you...?
  • #22,715
  • Aug 7, 2007 3:03am Aug 7, 2007 3:03am
Good morning every body, looks like we are shorting cable today.
Just Trade It
  • #22,716
  • Aug 7, 2007 3:17am Aug 7, 2007 3:17am
Earlier, cable held at its pivot and has just had a 2 hour, 70 pip drop to its S1 support at 0264, which its just broken. The euro´s back to 3800 and swissy´s bounced up off 1900, so cable could continue on down to the 200 level and last weeks lows....or will it now just be sideways till the US data?
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #22,717
  • Aug 7, 2007 3:20am Aug 7, 2007 3:20am
I believe we are in a c wave on the daily, c waves have 5 waves inside and on the 4hr chart it looks like we are in wave 3 of the c, and wave 3 is the biggest (normally) DOWN CABLE DOWN
Just Trade It
  • #22,718
  • Aug 7, 2007 3:21am Aug 7, 2007 3:21am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Good morning every body, looks like we are shorting cable today.
Bloomberg currencies story says

'pound may go up as a report says UK economy doing better than expected'

so you click on the story to open it up and it says 'uk economy slowing fast - pound to fall'


How can they have any credibility when the headline is opposite to the story ?

back to the ruan stones

anyway, who are these 'traders' who saw a 'vision' and all decided the pound should fall because the uk economy is not doing well - all at once and without any surprise market news ?


I agree with them by the way - it's just that the mysterious market movers do their thing and the financial papparazi just make up a story afterwards to justify why the market moved.

opinion is just that - and has a shorter shelf life than a peeled potato
  • #22,719
  • Aug 7, 2007 3:25am Aug 7, 2007 3:25am
Quoting Islander
Earlier, cable held at its pivot and has just had a 2 hour, 70 pip drop to its S1 support at 0264.............
My S1 is at 0229.....using EDT on the previous day close...why do we have different S1's
  • #22,720
  • Aug 7, 2007 3:26am Aug 7, 2007 3:26am
Yeah.. i wonder where is zamans98.. long time no posting from him/her?? and where is everybody from late asian / ealrly london sessions?? its very dead quiet here these days during this time..
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