Cable Update (GBPUSD)

...Dly R3 reached (Wkly R1 and a desc t/line just above,) @ bottom of a prev 1hr sw hi zone = pres res x 1 = pot res. 109% of 30day adr reached.

1hr below

gold TP hit good and proper blimey what an overnight move!

now gone long UJ at 14290 looking for 30-50 pips

...so 1st upside b/o of first the 3506 asian hi, then Fri's 3511 hi, both remain true for now...next up is last wk's 3593 hi? 46% of 13wk awr already traveled so far on this 1st day of the week. Dly R3 is @ current dly hi, Wkly R1 is @/around 3560 just above it. Mthly R1 is next @/around 3652 then Wkly R2 @/around 3660. Price remains above Yrly R1 (@/around 3197,) and Yrly R2 is @/around 3882. Right now it's on the midpoint of those (3540.)

@ last wk's 3593 hi price touched the bottom of the wkly part of the prev dly/wkly sw hi zone = prev res = pot res that extends up to 3644 (from Feb 2022,) - the dly part starts circa 3614.

...that shallow dip to the 1st 23.6% fib was bought re the 5min bullish hidden div there, and gmt+3hrs price feed 4hr candle closing v. bullish @ top of last hour. Will we see a new current dly hi? Price challenging the prev 1hr minor sw hi zone = pot res that extends up to current dly hi, @ Dly R3 3558.
All 10/20/40 ema crosses stayed good (green) during that p/back.

1hr then 10/20/40 ema crosses graphic below

...in light of that ill-informed, ridiculious comment I received in a post earlier, referring to a previous post I had made, it is probably a good time to post these:


10 Self-evident Truths about Support & Resistance:

1. Support & Resistance effectively refers to an imbalance of demand over supply -or- supply over demand respectively, sufficient that the market turns @ that point, (a swing point.) The imbalance may continue for howsoever long.

2. Such an imbalance as described in 1.above, that creates a fractal swing point re price, shows itself first on the lowest t/f f, and if the imbalance continues for howsoever long, the swing point develops on, and extends up through, consecutively higher t/f’s. The more t/f’s the swing point comes to exist upon, the potentially more significant it may be in the future if tested again by price, in respect of it’s potential to offer support or resistance.

3. Potential (the distinction is important) Support or Resistance can be identified by any number of technical factors. Arguably the most important of these are these previous fractal swing points of price, ie a previous swing hi or previous swing lo, (both to the left of the prevailing current price.)

4. These fractal swing points are most important on the t/f’s that those that move price operate on, which mainly means the 1hr t/fand upwards.

5. There is no guarantee that an area that has seen a fractal swing hi or lo form (@ which a zone can be plotted,) on howsoever many t/f’s, in the past, or indeed supp/res/sbr/rbs on a retest @ such, will see one develop again if challenged by price. Ie price may break straight through it, as opposed to bounce away from it.

6. The confluence of technical factors known to identify potential support/resistance, and the confluence of t/f’s that a fractal swing point exists upon, can both be important in determining @ what price level (s) support and resistance may most likely be.

7. The way price arrives @ a potential support or resistance area/zone can be important in determining whether there is a greater chance of a bounce away from it, or a break through it. Similarly price’s relationship to it’s average ranges across whatsoever period, (starting with the Dly t/f,) can also be important in this respect. Time also plays a part in this determination.

8. Re potential supp/res/sbr/rbs zones – price tends, more often than not, to test deep into a zone, but not always.

9. The more times a zone/area of potential support or resistance is tested by price, the potentially weaker it becomes on any subsequent retest (s.)

10. Just because we may have potential Support & Resistance factors plotted/mapped out on our charts does not mean that it does not exist at other price levels.

If you are trading potential supp/res/sbr/rbs you have to have an edge that tells you whether a bounce or a break of it is more probable. PA, oscillator divergence/extremes, price's relationship to averages at it, etc can help in this.

waiting limit signal 3533 breaks and 3527 test sr , may not first confirmation and hold 3525 , now breaking signal 3537
Watching eurusd below 1413/ 00 test before bounce

...so 1st test on the prev 1hr sw hi zone = pot res that extends up to current dly hi is rejected, - supply there results in a coexistent prev 30min sw hi zone just below the 3558 current dly hi.

1hr below

Hey Headland... out of curiosity, how well do your statements regarding S/R hold up, especially points #7 and #9, hard-core statistically speaking? When I look at hourly, 4hr, or daily historical charts and identify "obvious" S/R swing points, price is just as likely to blow through these areas rather than bounce off... especially regarding the number of touches and the ensuing "strength" of the S/R... thanks!

Best,
Dave

closely monitoring morphing of the current Attachment g

Hi. Those 'self-evident truths' are either fact re points 1 - 4 and 10, or generally hold true, ie more often than not, - the greater probability. They are based on multi-year very large sample empirical evidence, but others' may have evidence that can challenge one or more of them,? I don't know. Beware though - know the difference between multi-year large sample empirical evidence -versus- casual observational/anecdotal evidence. Challenge assertions made by posters - although Good Luck with that - most take it as an insult to their ego, lol! I don't know in advance which zones or indeed factors other than zones that I pre identify on any given t/f (s) will see a bounce or break if price tests them, and @ best if my edge sets-up on one or more t/f's below them if price tests them, I get to know the probability only and whether it's the greater or lesser probability of a bounce, and I act accordingly. It doesn't always. Of course even if the greater probability becomes known, it doesn't always play out.

Sorry I can't be more specific but I would be wrong to claim that I can. and to more specific re points #7 and #9 would mean revealing stats connected with my edge that I am not prepared to in an open forum. Re point #7 though, I found the stuff by Sam Seidon (google him) to be of use in determining my methodology around this, that is part of my edge.

At some time this month, GU would have to retrace to ~1.3220 and EU to ~1.1140. Trade accordingly.. Like the higher it goes the more profit to gain later..

closed 10p

I went long on the pound-dollar. The rise was too strong and it dropped a little, but I think it will rebound again. However, if it falls below the current price, I will stop it with SL. I will not go short.

Also looking forward to continuous in bullish trend

Sold again 1.3542

Will the narrative change or sellers will just go ahead and break through 1.3527? Failure to do so will begin the buy to 1.3610.

New monthly pivot 3396. Buy retraces to that number, but jump out if there is a weekly close below it. That's the gameplay for this month for me.

trend is up. I can see 1.365 in the making

UJ with a resistance around 14290. Looking for a break above to take potentially claw back some of the days deficit for the pair.