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  • #2,981
  • Apr 13, 2025 7:35pm Apr 13, 2025 7:35pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} BTC Sunday Apr 13, after a cleanup and de-cluttering my charts, I see better ... re-test of Daily level and now ... watch today' close ... and last Friday' New York 5pm Close {image} ...

BTC Apr14 Tokyo 9am UPDATE:

- this H4 candle is a big candle with both burning ends ...

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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #2,982
  • Apr 13, 2025 8:10pm Apr 13, 2025 8:10pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} It is very difficult for scalper and day traders to trade during the market open hours when there is high impact news. Not saying that it is impossible, but short-term trading requires a lot of live market trading experience and self-leaning from own experience. High impact news create volatility in the lower timeframes especially the 4Hr and below. Not forgetting the news and events which are not seen in economic calendars like here in FF. The ongoing trade tariff war is important to be very vigilant and we must be very nimble in our trade...

Comparing ADR 100 days and recent 10 days,

UJ Apr14 Tokyo 10am M30

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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #2,983
  • Apr 14, 2025 12:28am Apr 14, 2025 12:28am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Comparing ADR 100 days and recent 10 days, UJ Apr14 Tokyo 10am M30 {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Apr14 ADr compare 14-4-2025 9-07-58 am.png Size: 26 KB



...

UJ Apr14 Tokyo 2pm UPDATE:

- today morning session traders got their ADR-100 days target

- let's wait and see what happens later when Frankfurt and London markets open

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Apr14 m30 Tokyo 2pm 14-4-2025 1-04-33 pm.png Size: 28 KB


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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #2,984
  • Edited 8:16am Apr 14, 2025 6:52am | Edited 8:16am
First and only trade today - 4R trade - based on a 15 min rejection candle and trendline bounce.
I made my entry on the 5 minute retrace and put my stop-loss below the previous 15m candle low (the one before the rejection candle)
I have found that more times than not - the price will not go below this candle if the bias is correct and we can get in with a smaller stoploss.
Initially had a bigger tp - but price started stalling so excited manual.
The over overall trend is bullish - but the higher timeframe price action has been showing signs of reversal or pullback.

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UPDATE:

I LIED - had another setup scream in my face and I could not stay away from it
1H broke structure and I made an initial entry - Price retraced after breaking structure on the 15m and printed textbook rejection candle and price on the 5 minute chart also printed and screamed rejection I scaled in and did a nice quick trade making the daily total 9,32 R.

Now I am truely done for the day

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  • #2,985
  • Apr 14, 2025 10:37am Apr 14, 2025 10:37am
Ще спостерігаю і вчусь.
I'm still observing and learning.

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  • #2,986
  • Apr 14, 2025 4:09pm Apr 14, 2025 4:09pm
EURCHF Buy. Just missed my TP and came back to hit SL. Was not around to monitor trade.

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  • #2,987
  • Apr 14, 2025 5:12pm Apr 14, 2025 5:12pm
Quoting shertiger
EURCHF Buy. Just missed my TP and came back to hit SL. Was not around to monitor trade. {image}
I have some thoughts on the trade that perhaps would give you some insight into what went wrong or what could have been done different
From my perspective there are some major red flags that would make this a no trade setup from my perspective.

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First red flag: price is kinda ranging and your in the premium range of the range right now - meaning the best setup at the moment would be to look for a sell trade. Second red flag: Price has come up and rejected off a big resistance zone - red vertical line. Was price be to break through this resistance then we could start to look for a pullback and a buy setup.
Third red flag: Price is very close to the daily ATR100 - I know the current volatility perhaps could make it go further - but it's a good indication that the move is about to be exhausted.

If we ignore all above - a textbook Rob entry would initially have been stopped out with a 4 pip stoploss. Had it not been stopped out the move itself would have made 55 pips or 1:13,75 R

Looks like you did an entry on the first green candle after the rejection candle - and we should therefore lower our tp significantly - here I would go for 4-5R - perhaps with a scale in once price took off and get out earlier.
Had you taken the entry upon the close of the first green candle - you would have had a 9 pip stoploss and price would still have given a 1:5,44R

How big was your stoploss and your TP?
  • #2,988
  • Apr 14, 2025 6:10pm Apr 14, 2025 6:10pm
Quoting lolxhaha
{quote} A primer on ADR for those who are not familiar with it, yes you can use an indicator to do this for you but I think it is helpful to understand how it works. With that you will also gain an understanding of what tweaking the parameters does. Daily Range = Daily High - Daily Low X Day ADR = Sum of previous X days daily ranges / X 10 day ADR = Sum of previous 10 days daily ranges / 10 SMA vs EMA: Simple Moving Average (SMA): Means that if your ADR has a period of ten days, each day contributes an equal weightage (10%) in the ADR calculation...
reinder for me to read
  • #2,989
  • Apr 14, 2025 6:23pm Apr 14, 2025 6:23pm
A quick 5R trade and done for the day - Overall time at the chart has been a little under an hour.

Price was ranging - and I expected price to go down for another grab.
It did a very impulsive move down - so I quickly put stoploss to breakeven - price came back and took out my stoploss at breakeven and I then estimated that the impulse move was a liquidity grab and I entered in the other direction with a stoploss at my previous entry - and got out once price hit 5R

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Completely wrong analysis - but quick management - avoided a loss and turned the trade around to a profit in the other direction.
  • #2,990
  • Apr 15, 2025 3:37am Apr 15, 2025 3:37am
Quoting TranceGhost
{quote} I have some thoughts on the trade that perhaps would give you some insight into what went wrong or what could have been done different From my perspective there are some major red flags that would make this a no trade setup from my perspective. {image} First red flag: price is kinda ranging and your in the premium range of the range right now - meaning the best setup at the moment would be to look for a sell trade. Second red flag: Price has come up and rejected off a big resistance zone - red vertical line. Was price be to break...
Thanks for the feedback. All valid points. SL was 9 pips and TP 59 pips.
  • #2,991
  • Apr 15, 2025 4:05am Apr 15, 2025 4:05am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} BTC Apr14 Tokyo 9am UPDATE: - this H4 candle is a big candle with both burning ends ... {image} ...

BTC Apr15 UPDATE:

- still bullish

- but entering a technical 'supply' zone

- fundamentals and market sentiments dominates the week

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTC Apr15 4Hr enters bear country 15-4-2025 5-01-19 pm.png Size: 28 KB

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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #2,992
  • Apr 15, 2025 6:07am Apr 15, 2025 6:07am
GA: Got a perfect entry during the 2nd hour of London session.

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Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #2,993
  • Apr 15, 2025 6:08am Apr 15, 2025 6:08am
Trading Canadian CPI later,

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UsdCad London 12pm now,

- today' high low has not been tested ...

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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #2,994
  • Apr 15, 2025 6:13am Apr 15, 2025 6:13am
Quoting fxpider
GA: Got a perfect entry during the 2nd hour of London session. {image}
Does not get much better than that.
Your trade order needs to be in the right place at the right time.
  • #2,995
  • Apr 15, 2025 11:10pm Apr 15, 2025 11:10pm
XAU Apr16 Tokyo 1pm

- breaking 3237 is a big deal

- only one thing can stop it from making new high today

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Click to Enlarge Name: XAU Apr16 maing new high 3300 16-4-2025 12-02-18 pm.png Size: 29 KB



...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #2,996
  • Apr 15, 2025 11:41pm Apr 15, 2025 11:41pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} BTC Apr15 UPDATE: - still bullish - but entering a technical 'supply' zone - fundamentals and market sentiments dominates the week {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTC Apr15 4Hr enters bear country 15-4-2025 5-01-19 pm.png Size: 28 KB



...
BTC Apr16 Tokyo 1pm UPDATE:

- yesterday' "supply" was good

- now we look for a "floor" to build long positions, can 82300ish be the next "floor"

- IF not then we may see more downside this week,

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTC Apr16 Tokyo 1pm UPDATE 16-4-2025 12-37-27 pm.png Size: 28 KB


...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #2,997
  • Apr 16, 2025 12:36am Apr 16, 2025 12:36am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} UJ Apr14 Tokyo 2pm UPDATE: - today morning session traders got their ADR-100 days target - let's wait and see what happens later when Frankfurt and London markets open {image} ... {image}

UJ Apr16 M30

- using ADR 100 days, we now see the Asian high and the ADR Low 141.73 is now the possible target.

> how to maximize profit with this ?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Apr16 ADR 100 days Low 16-4-2025 1-33-00 pm.png Size: 27 KB



...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #2,998
  • Apr 16, 2025 4:08pm Apr 16, 2025 4:08pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
XAU Apr16 Tokyo 1pm - breaking 3237 is a big deal - only one thing can stop it from making new high today {image} ...

XAU Apr16 New York closed 5pm

- I have no idea where it will end ...

- so I just keep on buying ...

- next 3400, then 3500, ...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAU Apr16 NYClose 5pm 17-4-2025 5-05-43 am.png Size: 28 KB


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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #2,999
  • Apr 16, 2025 8:31pm Apr 16, 2025 8:31pm
Its quiet here in this thread.

Catch the next big one !

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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #3,000
  • Apr 17, 2025 2:23pm Apr 17, 2025 2:23pm
Good evening.
There are interesting movements in the GBPUSD and USDJPY pairs today, but the rejection candles are not perfect.
In the first pair (GBPUSD), the rejection candle is bearish, with a slight pullback. In the second pair (USDJPY), the rejection candle has a large pullback, but with a red body.
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