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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #857,841
  • Apr 4, 2025 3:25pm Apr 4, 2025 3:25pm
Quoting moondoggie
{quote} Mate, this is maddening price behavior. My analyses are getting turned inside-out
One's gotta have an exit plan in case shit goes tits up. NFP report today signalled me to short USD but there's no way in hell i would short USD today. Sometimes setups give us false signals or low probability trades. I didn't wanna risk it, congrats to the guys with big balls who made money today tho

It was all about the tariffs today. Strong NFP headlines just added fuel to the fire, ruling out my setup.

Whether you trade technicals or fundamentals, i think it's important that we keep an eye on whats going on. Even if we are talking about pure technical, the loss can be avoided by just slapping a momentum/trend indicator on the chart imo. The good old "don't catch a falling knife/don't stand in the way of a bull" thing. Or "trend is your friend" etc.

It's ok though, sometimes reality checks happen. I hope the loss wasn't big tho

EDIT: Btw GU still bullish on the longer term imo
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  • #857,842
  • Apr 4, 2025 3:38pm Apr 4, 2025 3:38pm
Quoting Nordling
{quote} One's gotta have an exit plan in case shit goes tits up. NFP report today signalled me to short USD but there's no way in hell i would short USD today. Sometimes setups give us false signals or low probability trades. I didn't wanna risk it, congrats to the guys with big balls who made money today tho It was all about the tariffs today. Strong NFP headlines just added fuel to the fire, ruling out my setup. Whether you trade technicals or fundamentals, i think it's important that we keep an eye on whats going on. Even if we are talking...
Solid reminders, mate. I always appreciate your input! Not a catastrophic loss or anything like that, just a bit demoralizing because I haven't been able to catch a wave in a while.

Also, what makes you feel that GU is bullish long-term?
Trying my best.
  • #857,843
  • Apr 4, 2025 3:55pm Apr 4, 2025 3:55pm
GJ a recovery of nearly 200 pips from the days low and we are closing nearer to 189 too. Potential chance of a correction next week. Maybe limited depending on the BoJ statement early next week. Also if bets for a non hike in May increase then a move towards 193 could also happen. 192 be the area of interest for me
Insane in the Brain..
  • #857,844
  • Apr 4, 2025 4:04pm Apr 4, 2025 4:04pm
Quoting moondoggie
{quote} Solid reminders, mate. I always appreciate your input! Not a catastrophic loss or anything like that, just a bit demoralizing because I haven't been able to catch a wave in a while. Also, what makes you feel that GU is bullish long-term?
Although the tariffs boosted the USD since it's a contractionary fiscal policy, the whole "let's produce things in the US" approach by Trump will eventually result in a weaker dollar. To be able to compete with China in terms of production after all. You know when your currency weakens, you pay the workers something of a less value than you did before, for that reason production costs go lower and economy becomes more competitive. That's also why China doesn't let Yuan strengthen for ex.

But ofc I'm talking about a very long timespan. It's more like an investor POV rather than a trader bc several hundred pips worth of pullbacks will eventually happen along the way. So saying USD bearish on the longer term doesn't really translate to "underwater GU longs will survive". The correction can deepen.

A weaker USD is just my guess for the coming years.
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  • #857,845
  • Apr 4, 2025 4:06pm Apr 4, 2025 4:06pm
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yes yes yes
  • #857,846
  • Apr 4, 2025 4:08pm Apr 4, 2025 4:08pm
These idiots might do a straightline to go hit the pivot at 2838. Price was flying to 3200 like there was no tomorrow. Now it's back down to earth.
  • #857,847
  • Apr 4, 2025 5:08pm Apr 4, 2025 5:08pm
Quoting MoneyPrinte
GBP {image}
We fell today—with dignity in the dust
Now stand and adapt… or bleed ‘til the end of us
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https://x.com/moneyprinte
  • #857,848
  • Apr 4, 2025 5:38pm Apr 4, 2025 5:38pm
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} The up move had me scrambling but again my trades are offset by earlier buy trades which kept me calm. It could have been much worse, but you need some sort of luck in trading. 1.27500 remains my target to the downside. Cheers. {image}
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"The Rich Never Pay Retail"
  • #857,849
  • Apr 4, 2025 6:33pm Apr 4, 2025 6:33pm
Quoting W0lfram
Popular topic today? Dates: from election to election max.depr = from open (election) to low during a term {image} {image}
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Air force
  • #857,850
  • Apr 4, 2025 6:52pm Apr 4, 2025 6:52pm
Quoting Nordling
{quote} Although the tariffs boosted the USD since it's a contractionary fiscal policy, the whole "let's produce things in the US" approach by Trump will eventually result in a weaker dollar. To be able to compete with China in terms of production after all. You know when your currency weakens, you pay the workers something of a less value than you did before, for that reason production costs go lower and economy becomes more competitive. That's also why China doesn't let Yuan strengthen for ex. But ofc I'm talking about a very long timespan. It's...
This is a very complex business. Your simple description does not take into account the actions other countries central banks will take to keep their currencies low. You mention China but many other countries also take protective actions. Also, we have the situations of profit taking compounding the issues. I don't believe it is possible to sort out the entire mess to make any meaningful predictions of distant future prices there are simply too many variables. It may well be Trump wants a weaker dollar but that relies on other countries allowing it to happen. Currency trading is not the same as the stock market by any means where bad news can plummet stocks, but currency can go the opposite way and often does because of the variables involved.
  • #857,851
  • Apr 4, 2025 8:33pm Apr 4, 2025 8:33pm
Quoting Nala66
{quote} This is a very complex business. Your simple description does not take into account the actions other countries central banks will take to keep their currencies low. You mention China but many other countries also take protective actions. Also, we have the situations of profit taking compounding the issues. I don't believe it is possible to sort out the entire mess to make any meaningful predictions of distant future prices there are simply too many variables. It may well be Trump wants a weaker dollar but that relies on other countries...
Ofc there are many more variables, mine was just a mere guess. Which is why i don't suggest taking it as a trading advice, it's just my outlook on the bigger picture
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  • #857,852
  • Apr 5, 2025 12:27am Apr 5, 2025 12:27am
Quoting Nordling
{quote} Ofc there are many more variables, mine was just a mere guess. Which is why i don't suggest taking it as a trading advice, it's just my outlook on the bigger picture
Sometimes I wonder if it is the BOE using its stocks of US currency to buy the pound. Then selling the pound back to dollars for a nice profit.

I have no idea how all this works I just go with the flow.
  • #857,853
  • Apr 5, 2025 6:09am Apr 5, 2025 6:09am
In July 2018, Nov 2022, and just recently first week of March 2025 I traded meagre accounts to huge profits, 200 usd to 5600 USD in a month, 120 to 4000 in 2 weeks, 400 to 2700 in a week. In all cases I blow the accounts in 1- 3 trades after a long winning streak. I've developed powerful trading tools like scanners and EA; though I prefer to be hybrid. I've read books, listened to audio books, used trading journal but still I just find it so difficult to press the close button for the few sessions the market invalidates my set ups. Once I blow account it's like I forget all that I've learnt and the long years of losing streaks sets in! It's really frustrating why I can't just be consistent! Overall I'm net loss with about 4000 USD and that's not small in the part of the world I live in. I'm searching for at least 3 trading and accountability partners to walk with me in this journey and have mutual trading benefits.
  • #857,854
  • Apr 5, 2025 6:27am Apr 5, 2025 6:27am
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"The Rich Never Pay Retail"
  • #857,855
  • Apr 5, 2025 7:24am Apr 5, 2025 7:24am
Quoting zefani
In July 2018, Nov 2022, and just recently first week of March 2025 I traded meagre accounts to huge profits, 200 usd to 5600 USD in a month, 120 to 4000 in 2 weeks, 400 to 2700 in a week. In all cases I blow the accounts in 1- 3 trades after a long winning streak. I've developed powerful trading tools like scanners and EA; though I prefer to be hybrid. I've read books, listened to audio books, used trading journal but still I just find it so difficult to press the close button for the few sessions the market invalidates my set ups. Once I blow account...
the unfortunate truth: this is a solitary pilgrimage full of counterintuitive twists and turns that is as individual as a finger print. The only effective parameters are all Macro, every other micro detail has to be personally chiseled out by each individual trader. it is a long and difficult process full of discouragement, disappointment, and financial stress.......it is not for very many. the only solution is determination. no two journeys are alike. what works for one trader, does not work or another, sounds illogical but absolutely true. here are a few insights from 34years of determination. this is a rigged market. you have to develop your own system. demo accounts are worthless. Price and Price Alone is your best indicator. keep your charts simple. trade only daily bars. trade only micro lots and scale up as you grow your account balance. fundamentals are subjective. news is manipulation. catalyst of price action is inconsequential. your only superpower is "you are tiny". follow the market makers, you can't be one. this is not a competition. i am sure there may be plenty of other traders that will chime in here because i am not a professional but i have used these principles to become profitable. good luck with your journey.
"The Rich Never Pay Retail"
  • #857,856
  • Apr 5, 2025 7:45am Apr 5, 2025 7:45am
Quoting teprewitt23
{quote} the unfortunate truth: this is a solitary pilgrimage full of counterintuitive twists and turns that is as individual as a finger print. The only effective parameters are all Macro, every other micro detail has to be personally chiseled out by each individual trader. it is a long and difficult process full of discouragement, disappointment, and financial stress.......it is not for very many. the only solution is determination. no two journeys are alike. what works for one trader, does not work or another, sounds illogical but absolutely true....
I appreciate your insight, teprewitt23(Indeed a sophisticated name!), full of great wisdom from the many years of experience. I didn't expect to find veterans here since I haven't been active mostly, and I feel privileged for such encounter. And yes the journey might be full of rough terrain, but meeting and sharing with like minded professionals like you will eventually result into success. I'm beginning to feel lighten and hopeful. Cheers!!
  • #857,857
  • Apr 5, 2025 7:58am Apr 5, 2025 7:58am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Lol... All that pump almost wiped out. Tarrifs, Powell, and Trump rule. What sent price up is what's sending it down. Charts are still important.
Haha. Yeh I was just joking around to merely exaggerate how big the tariff fueled move as well as the China reciprocal tariff announcement fueled move were. I agree interpretations of price charts forming value rules the markets as best illustrated by Nobel laureate Paul Milgrom:

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  • #857,858
  • Apr 5, 2025 7:58am Apr 5, 2025 7:58am
Quoting zefani
{quote} I appreciate your insight, teprewitt23(Indeed a sophisticated name!), full of great wisdom from the many years of experience. I didn't expect to find veterans here since I haven't been active mostly, and I feel privileged for such encounter. And yes the journey might be full of rough terrain, but meeting and sharing with like minded professionals like you will eventually result into success. I'm beginning to feel lighten and hopeful. Cheers!!
full disclosure.......i am not a professional trader, just sharing my personal insights and experience. good luck.
"The Rich Never Pay Retail"
  • #857,859
  • Apr 5, 2025 8:06am Apr 5, 2025 8:06am
Quoting teprewitt23
{quote} full disclosure.......i am not a professional trader, just sharing my personal insights and experience. good luck.
Got you, but to me anyone who is consistently profitable is a professional. It's not a joke to attain such milestone.
  • #857,860
  • Apr 5, 2025 8:18am Apr 5, 2025 8:18am
Quoting zefani
{quote} Got you, but to me anyone who is consistently profitable is a professional. It's not a joke to attain such milestone.
Yup. Professional means you are making a living from the markets. How much anyone makes doesnt matter. What matters is that you make a wage. Everyone has different account balances so some make more than others... If imagine you work at Starbucks you might get 600bucks a week so you need to take 600 a week from trading to cover those wages and anything else you leave in account to build on
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