Cable Update (GBPUSD)

European bourses opened over 2% lower and this contributed to carry-trade unwinding in both CHF and JPY. EUR/JPY tested 160.50 and EUR/CHF probed 1.6350. US Tsy Sec Paulson seemed to calm the market sell-off when he noted that the US economy was ' 'very healthy' despite mortgage woes and added that the global economy was the strongest he has seen.

Basically say come back buy the carry so that the super LT players can sell more holdings

How about I just mail you a check.

nextG

I'm a fundamental trader too, and i believe that understanding what will happen fundamentally sets us apart to the ones that see a 1000 pip drop and dont know what the hell is happening. So its good to be prepared.

But...

Let me tell you something. In the last correction on cable i realized my self at my cost that trading funds its not about trying to oversmart the market when we are right, its for confirmation porpouses and to know when to get out before collapse.

When inflation was at 3.1 and they raised the interest rates. I knew back then (10 May) that it wasn't enought, but the market... short short....

I was right... but... only weeks later the market realized that... and i lost a few times in desbelief of how millions of traders could have been so dumbly wrong.

So. If you think... "hey tomorrow the ecb will be hawkish" or " "hey BoE will raise rates"

Look at the chart and think. "Are this ppl thinking the same as me?"


If the awnser is yes... go along.
If the awnser is no. Stay out and wait for the day.

When the day comes you just do this.

If the market is right.. stay out, despite of how much right they were.
If the market didn't priced in nothing and gets shocked... don't worry, you will not be late to fill your pockets with technical traders money that dont know about the shock.

And i dont mean just for rates.
Many times the market is down even if the economy are doing good.

Why? Is not that funds dont matter, its just because the market is expecting bad news. Expecting news... not ignoring the actual ones. If the news dont come... they get it right and re price the ignored ones... its just a matter of waiting.



Now.. regarding of what is happening.

H4 Chart.

First... Both EU and GU rejected 100 EMA. Lower highs but higher lows (indecision, set for further information)

So... temporary bearish/neutral status.

Regarding funds.

You may ask... "hey... with so many US problems" why are they rising?

Maybe you should learn more about carry trades. Whats happening is that the bad credit news.. have a powerfull bearish efect on USD/JPY. There are Zillions in value waiting to get out from that pair since there are ppl long for years without closing their positions to get profit. It probably will resume rising in a few weeks but for now. The big sharks are scared and they will punch the pair as soon as we get more bad news.

What happens in carry trades is that... when the money returns to Japan to pay the yen loans... they convert Euros and Pounds in dollars first... and then in Yens... So in that time dollar apreciate.


Conclusion... the view of the market is fundamentally bearish until further info.

Even if BoE raises just one more time the pair might apreciate... but keep in mind that if carry trades continue to unwind.. you will continue to see drops on GU, because even the GB news (just one more hike), are not enough to fight a possible global collapse in the markets. Remember... there are bazzillions invested in carry trades. They dont even need to short... just taking profit its huge collapse.


So...

Think... what are your views. What is the market thinking. Can you ajust your views with the market or they are the oposite and you can't do it right now?


Awnser that questions to yourself and then execute what i said above.

And BTW... if you want to do that kind of trade.... like going long expecting a rate hike... dont ever do it on the day before...

Its not advisable, but do it in the day... when all supports and resistances are set and SL and Targets are more clear.

me too pls,

easy SunTrade

I'm a Junior also and so he is. we have to help each other to learn. dear bksujal in short use sell command and in long use buy command

that's it easy

I think there will be a small bounce off of 2.0292, eventually piercing through and following through to S1 by sydney then possibly s2 by Asia.

If no pierce, then a retest of the trend line perhaps.

http://img165.imageshack.us/img165/7589/chartor6.gif

I don't care how new a newbie is. You don't ask someone whether to buy or sell. That is if you expect to learn and stay in this business.

Advice/knowledge - yes. But not what and when and what price to trade.

I also believe anyone who answers questions like that are showing their inexperience too.

Thats ok, we all have to decide how to trade and what to tell someone else about how they should trade. But my little joke was expressing what I feel about the matter. To each his own.

0279

I agree SunTrader. Its like a man walking up to a fisherman and saying "can I have a fish?" He's nothing more than a beggar. Better to ask, "say, can you teach me how you fish these waters?" Then after you learn, you leave him alone and do it yourself.

I have never seen this, my average prices lines are both flatten at the same time (blue and yellow lines). I´m now a little bullish bias. Everything will be clear by tomorrow London session.

BTW sellers will need a lot of ammunition to go below this three lines (average prices and support line)

http://img172.imageshack.us/img172/7...7133253ep3.png

Again 2.0320 level

sell entries waiting 405

405 tommorow is never a sell entry point in my opinion, since if 404 is broken this is a sign for cable to go up, so be carefull

Why would it go up resistance is still above it at the 100 bar and decending 50 bar ma. It will stall on these the tides have changed, and the bears have the bulls in the smoker making jerky right now. my view anyways

Darn Cable !!!!!!!!!!!!!

I had 2 lots short @ 2.0351 still running TP1 2.0125 TP2 the break of 2.0030 wih trailing stop, but I changed the SL to 2.0404

a close below 2.0290 will boost the downtrend towards 2.0200 for the short run.

Updated my site for those who are interested.

long Eur 3651.............limit
long Cbl 0244.............limit
long Chf 2038.............limit
short Cad 0680...........limit

looks like theres change in drn.....does everyone see what i see....?

Breeze

I see ranging movement.. until IR news.. Is it same like what u see?