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Support and Resistance, Swing / Long term trading

  • #221
  • Edited 3:47pm Mar 17, 2025 2:06pm | Edited 3:47pm
Quoting TheCardinal
{quote} Both positions now BE. I dont think the move will be sustained if it goes back to my entries. Price COULD retest my second entry for a double bot & take me out @ BE, but if it goes back to support, it might very well break it. {image} No partials until blue line is reached. I will be looking for further add ons as price moves up from here
Both positions should be BE by now and I would take some partials as it is close enough to the blue line. I will look to add a third position on a retracement or once it breaks above the blue line. Will keep everyone posted. This is currently how it looks:

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  • #222
  • Mar 21, 2025 11:40am Mar 21, 2025 11:40am
Quoting TheCardinal
{quote} Both positions should be BE by now and I would take some partials as it is close enough to the blue line. I will look to add a third position on a retracement or once it breaks above the blue line. Will keep everyone posted. This is currently how it looks: {image}
Got stopped out @ BE on second position. First position still running.

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  • #223
  • Mar 26, 2025 2:11pm Mar 26, 2025 2:11pm
Hi

Love the work you've done here and inspired by your journey.

Would like to post some trades I take and some reasoning according to me.

Took this XAUUSD trade an hour ago (before stumbling on your thread).

Weekly and Monthly is too high for me to make any conclusive analysis. Daily has some information but the 4H was easiest to spot the SnR zone that price has been rejecting over the past days.
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  • #224
  • Edited 9:40am Apr 3, 2025 8:49am | Edited 9:40am
Quoting TheSoap
Hi Love the work you've done here and inspired by your journey. Would like to post some trades I take and some reasoning according to me. Took this XAUUSD trade an hour ago (before stumbling on your thread). Weekly and Monthly is too high for me to make any conclusive analysis. Daily has some information but the 4H was easiest to spot the SnR zone that price has been rejecting over the past days. {image} {image}
Did you manage to go BE on that trade Soap? I know gold ripped higher. I still think its going down, but I wont short it unless I get a very clear signal. From a technical point of view, it will go down for sure even though its clearly in an uptrend for now. From a fundamental standpoint, gold could very well go WAY higher with the trump shit show.

And if I may ask, why do you also draw your support and resistance also on your entry timeframe (H1)? From experience, if you begin to draw you SnR on a lower timeframe / entry timeframe, you will just see SnR everywhere. Price will ALWAYS encounter some form of resistance. A quick educational test you can make is to close your eyes, zoom out on your entry timeframe or your H4 and just use the horizontal line tool to put lines randomly anywhere on your chart. Open your eyes. You will notice price will react to "random lines" because it always encounters something. There is always a war between buyers and sellers. Dont get caught up drawing lines on your entry timeframe. It will only mess up with your decision making process once you are in a trade. Thats just my opinion. Im very open to be wrong here
  • #225
  • Apr 3, 2025 8:58am Apr 3, 2025 8:58am
Quoting TheCardinal
{quote} Got stopped out @ BE on second position. First position still running. {image}
Alright so..that was a close one lol

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Its not over but THAT is convincing price action. Big Daily candle like that shows traders support the buy side. Im going to be honest here, I double down on that set up and went long NU (got stopped out as you can see). I risked 0.5% since I was already exposed to AUDUSD (very correlated).

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I really had not set up other than my conviction. I had cues and made an educated guess. We can clearly see the higher highs and higher lows. We are also at a Monthly Support. My "fundamental template" a.k.a currency strength , was showing NZD strength. I just didnt place the Stop where it needs to be. I wanted a "tight stop". Pretty sure must of you guys can relate. If I had a bigger stop, I couldnt have risk 0.5% and would have risked 1%. With that AUDUSD correlation, I felt like risking 2% was a big too much. I paid the price lol Oh well.

Here is the currency strength template. We can see which currencies are the strongest since the beginning of the year.

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That main blue line going down (the lowest) is the USD. The purple line beginning to turn up is NZD.

At the same time, I took a CADCHF short (since im showing a loser in hindsight, I can also show a winner I guess lol):

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Look at that KL:

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Anyway, thats all for now. Do not hesitate to do like The Soap and share your set ups. Make sure its higher time frame and price action focused.
  • #226
  • Edited 9:54am Apr 4, 2025 9:41am | Edited 9:54am
Quoting TheCardinal
{quote} Alright so..that was a close one lol {image} Its not over but THAT is convincing price action. Big Daily candle like that shows traders support the buy side. Im going to be honest here, I double down on that set up and went long NU (got stopped out as you can see). I risked 0.5% since I was already exposed to AUDUSD (very correlated). {image} I really had not set up other than my conviction. I had cues and made an educated guess. We can clearly see the higher highs and higher lows. We are also at a Monthly Support. My "fundamental template"...
Well... thats awkward. Hahaha I genuinely laugh this morning when I saw I got SL at BE. That huge move down is crazy! I guess I spoke too soon yesterday and as we all know, market can be unpredictable. Its all about being on the right side of the flow.

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  • #227
  • Apr 4, 2025 9:46am Apr 4, 2025 9:46am
Regarding gold, I truly wanted to short it yesterday night, but it made no sense from a fundamental perspective. Right now, investors and traders are going into safe heavens as we can see by bonds rising, gold rising, CHF and JPY rising. So "why would it fall" I thought? Then looking at silver which is usually correlated with gold, it began falling pretty hard (when gold was still sitting at 3110 and this is when I really wanted to short it but had no set up. Well, we can all appreciate the drop now lol
  • #228
  • Apr 4, 2025 10:05am Apr 4, 2025 10:05am
Oil is setting up nicely for a BR (break&retest)

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I havent seen markets move like that since Covid lol pretty exciting and frightening times my friends. Stay Safe and trade responsibly. Risk management is always key, but specially in the conditions we are in right now. Be smart and dont risk more than your usual risk. The markets WILL tempt you.
  • #229
  • Jul 22, 2025 1:33am Jul 22, 2025 1:33am
Quoting TheCardinal
Oil is setting up nicely for a BR (break&retest) {image} I havent seen markets move like that since Covid lol pretty exciting and frightening times my friends. Stay Safe and trade responsibly. Risk management is always key, but specially in the conditions we are in right now. Be smart and dont risk more than your usual risk. The markets WILL tempt you.
I take two different trades in different accounts.
** swing trade monthly charts without SL,
** day trades H4 charts with SL
  • #230
  • Aug 1, 2025 1:29pm Aug 1, 2025 1:29pm
Quoting trader2022
{quote} I take two different trades in different accounts. ** swing trade monthly charts without SL, ** day trades H4 charts with SL
This is definitely an option. I wouldnt trade without a SL personally, but I can understand why some prefer do to so. As long as you are ok with the risk. I've known people who got their account completely ruined by not using SL thinking price would "come back to their entry" and we had a very hard drop without any pause (Covid).
  • #231
  • Nov 8, 2025 1:43pm Nov 8, 2025 1:43pm
Hello, simple idea, I like to keep it simple.
Just following the pin bar on Weekly time frame. SL above the pin bar, TP fibo 61,8.
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buying tops / selling bottoms
  • #232
  • Nov 8, 2025 2:11pm Nov 8, 2025 2:11pm
And another trade, long GBPAUD on Weekly TF. Not ideal because the upside move is very limited but will try.
We're in downtrend, but pullback has started and should continue for a few days.

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buying tops / selling bottoms
  • #233
  • Nov 16, 2025 7:53am Nov 16, 2025 7:53am
Hello i also used to trade on the 15 minute chart but as i found little to sucess in that alongside the fact i could literally never reason why the price moved that way i shifted to H1 , H4 and Daily chart. Higher timeframes give alot more clarity and have less variance and are less erratic. Even on the 15M chart i used to do fundamental analysis in order to get a trade direction bias but now it is even more important. Furthermore higher timeframes give a lot more clarity when your current timeframe stops making sense, suppose you can't reason the 1 hour chart go up a timeframe(H4) and than look at it, even if H4 looks weird go to the daily and so on.

Fundamental analysis is key, understanding Credit Creation , CPI, how unemployment rates and PCE index affect rates cuts , hold or hikes . generally also knowing how economies work helps. And these things aren't particularly hard to understand all of this is readily available on Youtube. I have a STEM background and i learned everything pretty easily what matters is dedication and putting in the right amount of time

as for my strategy is pretty much S/R , Volume and RSI and generally market structure with fundamentals also baked in, i get S/R from ChatGpt if they align well with the actual market i mark them , i also look at nice round numbers like 1.5700 as they maybe psychological levels i use volume to look for confirmation and look at the RSI for momentum.
  • #234
  • Jun 4, 2026 6:30am Jun 4, 2026 6:30am
The Cardinal - thanks to share you wiev.
nice trade today
enter H4, SR D1, H4
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  • #235
  • Last Post: Jun 4, 2026 7:18am Jun 4, 2026 7:18am
And the same situation, just on a different market — I entered the trade yesterday.
1st PT: OK
2nd PT: I think it will be BE.
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