Swing-trading/long term journal

Disclaimer: I am not a registered/licensed financial/investment advisor. I will be taking my FINRA examinations soon however.

Disclaimer: These are my own views on the market, not to be construed as investment advice

Disclaimer: Trading Forex is risky. Trading Forex on margin can result in losses that exceed deposits.




Please do not post in this thread. If you have a question, message me directly.


Current swing positions (updated

EURUSD long
Cost Basis: 1.0405
Estimated holding time: 2-8 weeks

GBPUSD long
Cost Basis: 1.2280
Estimated holding time: 4-16 weeks

AUDNZD long
Cost Basis: 1.0425
Estimated holding time: 8-24 weeks

USDTRY short
Cost Basis: 3.5350
Estimated holding time: 12-24 weeks

SP500 long
Cost Basis: 2123
Estimated holding time: Until weekly divergence and dojis

BITCOIN long
Cost Basis: 750usd
Estimated holding time: 3-12 months

ETHEREUM long
Cost Basis: 7.2179usd
Estimated holding time: 6-24 months

Ethereum

long 7.2179

My base case scenario is that we will soon be seeing somewhat of a rotation out of BitCoin and back into alt-coins.

If not a rotation, at minimum a slowdown in the hand over first BTC purchasing and altcoin selling.

USDTRY

3.5450 short, and will add more shorts as price rises (I stay small with my long term positions)

Base case scenario is that Trump election will actually cause a weaker dollar. The FED needs a weaker dollar if it is going to be able to purse higher interest rates and the Trump administration needs a weaker dollar if it is going to act on its desires to fiscally stimulate the economy. This should play well for a revival in carry trade. As investors flee from bonds, they seek yield in stocks and high yield currencies. The USA is already quite expensive, both on the dollar side and on the equity side. Emerging markets are the clear long term value play.

EURUSD

long 1.0405

hold 2-8 weeks

Nice call.
Are you still trading?? 

Yes. Just so busy I don't have much time for FF anymore. Working on businesses related to blockchain.

I think 1.23+ is coming soon for the Euro, although I think its a bit frothy at the moment, needs a pullback, and probably will have a drop near 1.1875 too.