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Attachments: Support and Resistance, Swing / Long term trading
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Support and Resistance, Swing / Long term trading

Quoting TheCardinal
{quote} Here is the plan for Oil: Pending order at 61% retracement with a stop below the wicks to the left {image} If you also go down to the Daily, we can see that Weekly Bullish PB made a CooF set up (change of order flow) {image}
I will use half my risk on this trade.
Quoting TheCardinal
I just took a long on CADJPY Monthly: Obvious uptrend {image} Weekly: Uptrend and we got a pullback to a weekly support {image} Daily: Signal = PB {image} I doubt the BOJ will change its monetary policy Monday night. If they do, it will probably be in 2024, so I will take my chances with the long side even though we might be over extended and due for a trend change/reversal, that, you can never know. Im going with the flow
Moving Stop to BE. Now a risk free trade. Lets see what it can give us
Quoting TheCardinal
{quote} Moving Stop to BE. Now a risk free trade. Lets see what it can give us
Some of you could take partials here at a Weekly break&retest resistance. I will personally wait

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Quoting TheCardinal
{quote} Here is the plan for Oil: Pending order at 61% retracement with a stop below the wicks to the left {image} If you also go down to the Daily, we can see that Weekly Bullish PB made a CooF set up (change of order flow) {image}
Canceling pending order. Will wait for a further push down into the zone
Watching USDCAD & USDCHF

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Yes the zone is big, I will look for Daily or Weekly confirmation signals. It could either retest the high of the box (dotted line) and make a H&S or push further down and hit the low of the swing point.

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Retest of the low. This would be a textbook pending order wick retest, but since its against the CHF (I heavily dislike going against the CHF) I will wait for a confirmation UNLESS the DXY lines up perfectly in timing.
I just went long on USDCHF

I know I said I like and want confirmation when betting against the CHF, but I really do think this is an opportunity for a pullback. Oh and usually, end of Q4 and end of year gives us some trend "reversals"

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I can always protect myself by moving to BE quickly and then if it takes me out BE, I look for re-entry with confirmation.
Quoting TheCardinal
{quote} Some of you could take partials here at a Weekly break&retest resistance. I will personally wait {image}
I believe the end of the uptrend on all cross Yen pairs is coming to an end. PA shows bearishness coming in more and more, fundamentals are in line for a dovish fed and a hawkish BOJ.

The Fed will supposedly reach their inflation target in a few months, meaning no more hikes and even cuts are expected = DXY down. Meanwhile, the BOJ should begin a cycle of rate hikes in 2024 = Yen will now be desired and it will probably get its title of safe heaven back.

All that means more strength of the Yen and less strength of all the other currencies against the Yen due to rate cuts.

I dont expect much of my CADJPY position now lol
Quoting TheCardinal
I just went long on USDCHF I know I said I like and want confirmation when betting against the CHF, but I really do think this is an opportunity for a pullback. Oh and usually, end of Q4 and end of year gives us some trend "reversals" {image} {image} I can always protect myself by moving to BE quickly and then if it takes me out BE, I look for re-entry with confirmation.
Out with a loss

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The possibility of a pullback was there, unfortunately it didnt happen
One realization I've made during this year's trading is that its very easy to lose a trade. Its really easy for a trade to hit SL but its very hard to get a winner unless you have fixed TP at 1:1 or 1:2. I expect to lose on most of my trades. I hope I dont, but I expect it.

So do you want a high win rate with low targets, or low win rate with big targets?
Quoting TheCardinal
{quote} Out with a loss {image} The possibility of a pullback was there, unfortunately it didnt happen
Shit happens, but don't write it off.
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Quoting mallee
{quote} Shit happens, but don't write it off.{image}
Yeah, that was a good set up regardless of the outcome. I would take this kind of trade 10 times out of 10. And yes, USDCHF pullback to my entry point haha but thats on me. I had my stop, it just took me out 5 pips below and came back. It happens
  • Post #152
  • Quote
  • Edited 12:37pm Dec 24, 2023 10:55am | Edited 12:37pm
With Christmas on out doorstep, I wanted to wish you all one thing and one thing only. We are all here trying to make it, trying to become real trader, full time trader, consistent on a Daily basis, trying to make money, trying to have that freedom. But we tend to forget the simple things. The things that REALLY matter.

I dare any one of you to visit a hospital and inquire of everyone present what they desire most for Christmas, and without exception, they would express the same wish: Health

Take care of your health, both physical and mental. Spend time with loved ones. Tell them you love them. Cherish your relationship.

The market will be there tomorrow and next year.

Money doesnt mean anything if you dont have a healthy live to fully enjoy that money. Money is useless without health.

So, with that being said, take care of yourselves ladies and gentlemen and dont forget what really matters.

I wish you all a Merry Christmas
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Not placing a trade at this point waiting for a better confirmation cause the market just reached the trend line drawn I’m waiting for a confirmation for sell order
Am I right?
  • Post #154
  • Quote
  • Edited 11:25am Dec 27, 2023 10:47am | Edited 11:25am
Quoting Soetantemi
{image} Not placing a trade at this point waiting for a better confirmation cause the market just reached the trend line drawn I’m waiting for a confirmation for sell order Am I right?
Hi Soetantemi,

I do not know about that, because:

1. Nobody knows if you are right
2. I do not trade Trendlines.

But here are a couple of questions:

1. Does this fit your beliefs about the market?
2. Does this fit your trading game plan?

If you answered yes to both, then yes you are right. And the outcome is irrelevant.

3. What kind of confirmation you are waiting for?
Quoting Soetantemi
{image} Not placing a trade at this point waiting for a better confirmation cause the market just reached the trend line drawn I’m waiting for a confirmation for sell order Am I right?
I am personally waiting for that high. I will place a pending in the coming days.

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Quoting TheCardinal
{quote} In and moved SL to BE. Sin ce nobody asked why or tried an opinion, I will just keep my chart to myself. I have 2 open positions currently. EURCHF SL at BE EURGBP SL at BE & partials taken
Alright so...Im out with a partial win on EURGBP and...


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EURCHF still open. No fixed TP and trailing stop in place
Quoting TheCardinal
{quote} Alright so...Im out with a partial win on EURGBP and... {image} EURCHF still open. No fixed TP and trailing stop in place
Since we do not have any reference point to the left of the chart of EURCHF (it has never been lower), im taking my final partials right here and leaving the rest run. For those of you wondering how I can take so many partials with a small account, its on my challenge account. My personal one I can afford one partial and leaving the rest to run.

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I just took a long on USDSGD. Just based on the DXY and other USD pairs, I believe I will get stopped out and we will reach the green box below but im not going to pick and choose the trades I should take vs those I shouldnt based on feeling. If my edge is present, I have to re-inforce that behavior and take the trade even if I dont have a good feeling about it.


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Here are some pending orders I currently have:

AUDUSD sell

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USDCAD buy

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GBPAUD buy

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Quoting TheCardinal
I just took a long on USDSGD. Just based on the DXY and other USD pairs, I believe I will get stopped out and we will reach the green box below but im not going to pick and choose the trades I should take vs those I shouldnt based on feeling. If my edge is present, I have to re-inforce that behavior and take the trade even if I dont have a good feeling about it. {image}
Moved my stop to BE. Oh well lol, that’s surprising.
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