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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #856,081
  • Mar 6, 2025 12:19am Mar 6, 2025 12:19am
If this continues, would the Fed not step in to intervene? If the pound was falling like this, I imagine the BoE would be at least thinking about it. There would be talk in the media about it. Currently there is nothing.
  • #856,082
  • Mar 6, 2025 12:23am Mar 6, 2025 12:23am
G/M, big > 30day adr bullish thrust candle on dly y/day. So far today 3 upside failed b/o's of y/day's hi on 1hr, and a 1st failed upside b/o of asian hi on the last one to a prev 1hr/4hr sw hi zone = pot res from Nov 2024 where sellers were met, also there 61.8% 3434-2100. Asian lo is presently the current dly lo.

1hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #856,083
  • Mar 6, 2025 12:30am Mar 6, 2025 12:30am
Quoting MrFanciful
If this continues, would the Fed not step in to intervene? If the pound was falling like this, I imagine the BoE would be at least thinking about it. There would be talk in the media about it. Currently there is nothing.
Hi, the answer in this situation to both your questions is No and No. This isn't even a drama, let alone a crisis. It's no big deal - just the normal machinations of the currency market.
--------------------------------

...2nd 4hr upside b/o of last wk's 2716 hi remains true so far.

4hr with 10/20/40 ema crosses graphic below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #856,084
  • Mar 6, 2025 12:34am Mar 6, 2025 12:34am
So after 10 consecutively bullish 8 hour candles, an event so rare that it hasn't happened since July, you should have bought at the 1 minute "order block"

Jesus everyone, it's so obvious.
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  • #856,085
  • Mar 6, 2025 12:38am Mar 6, 2025 12:38am
Bullish on GU over the midterm and expect this trend to head towards the monthly 200ema @ 1.44.
However pullbacks are expected hence likely to come at these regions 1.30-1.3120 & 1.3350-1.3400 imo.
  • #856,086
  • Mar 6, 2025 12:46am Mar 6, 2025 12:46am
Quoting dude007
Bullish on GU over the midterm and expect this trend to head towards the monthly 200ema @ 1.44. However pullbacks are expected hence likely to come at these regions 1.30-1.3120 & 1.3350-1.3400 imo.
Why are they expected at 1.30 and not 1.29? Why is it more likely to hit the monthly 200EMA before it breaks through the 5min and hit the 15 minute? I'm just wondering why people think something, rather than simply what they think.

I'm constantly being told that what I think is obviously wrong, but never get an explanation as to why. Why, when looking at this move, would buyers, at this price point without any meaningful pull back say "Now looks like a good place to enter a long". At any other time, if I was to say I'm going long at this point, I'd be accused of trading on FOMO and that it was obvious it was going to reverse.
  • #856,087
  • Mar 6, 2025 12:50am Mar 6, 2025 12:50am
Quoting MrFanciful
{quote} Why are they expected at 1.30 and not 1.29? Why is it more likely to hit the monthly 200EMA before it breaks through the 5min and hit the 15 minute? I'm just wondering why people think something, rather than simply what they think.
I ignore any post with think/feel/expect in it, lol! Analysis is what backs things up. The market doesn't care what we think, feel, or expect.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #856,088
  • Mar 6, 2025 12:57am Mar 6, 2025 12:57am
Quoting MrFanciful
{quote} Why are they expected at 1.30 and not 1.29? Why is it more likely to hit the monthly 200EMA before it breaks through the 5min and hit the 15 minute? I'm just wondering why people think something, rather than simply what they think. I'm constantly being told that what I think is obviously wrong, but never get an explanation as to why. Why, when looking at this move, would buyers, at this price point without any meaningful pull back say "Now looks like a good place to enter a long". At any other time, if I was to say I'm going long at this...
from an analysis perspective, we could have had a reversal at say 127 or even 126. Nothing really concrete but maybe it’s time for a reversal so tread carefully. However if you add in geopolitical considerations and other worldly economic factors we are at a place where the USD is dropping in value, but that also makes it cheaper for tourists to visit the US and also buy American products.

add all this up and you can see where we are going. I normally trade the yen pairs and have learnt it’s not all about the data a lot more noise from outside influences the pairs.
Insane in the Brain..
  • #856,089
  • Mar 6, 2025 1:08am Mar 6, 2025 1:08am
Quoting Headland
{quote} I ignore any post with think/feel/expect in it, lol! Analysis is what backs things up. The market doesn't care what we think, feel, or expect.
Funny enough, market doesn't also care what you analyse.
  • #856,090
  • Mar 6, 2025 1:09am Mar 6, 2025 1:09am
Quoting MoneyPrinte
{quote} GJ {image}
GJ....
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https://x.com/moneyprinte
  • #856,091
  • Mar 6, 2025 1:11am Mar 6, 2025 1:11am
Quoting Jackoboms
{quote} Funny enough, market doesn't also care what you analyse.
Hi. Absolutely, but I do - because it is my analysis that provides the 'playing field' for me to look for the hi-probability repeating set-ups that make up my trading edge. Without this there would just be repeating set-ups and I wouldn't know if they developed in the optimum chart conditions for each set-up.
--------------------------------------------------
... 1st test of the prev 1hr minor sw lo zone = pot supp that extends down to asian/current dly lo / 23.6% fib sees buyers emerge.

1hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #856,092
  • Mar 6, 2025 1:14am Mar 6, 2025 1:14am
Quoting Headland
{quote} Hi. Absolutely, but I do - because it is my analysis that provides the 'playing field' for me to look for the hi-probability repeating set-ups that make up my trading edge. Without this there would just be repeating set-ups and I wouldn't know if they developed in the optimum chart conditions for each set-up. -------------------------------------------------- ... 1st test of the prev 1hr minor sw lo zone = pot supp that extends down to asian/current dly lo / 23.6% fib sees buyers emerge. 1hr below {image}
Yeah, analysis makes trading more professional.
  • #856,093
  • Mar 6, 2025 1:24am Mar 6, 2025 1:24am
Quoting Jackoboms
{quote} Yeah, analysis makes trading more professional.
Lol, yeh, do you think so,? Try doing it on what we think, feel, or expect and see how far it gets us lol! I think we all know the answer to that, but despite this, some do!

---------------------------------------------------------------
...1st downside b/o of the asian lo and the 1hr full exp tri has achieved a lo below it's pt 4.

1hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #856,094
  • Mar 6, 2025 1:38am Mar 6, 2025 1:38am
Quoting ScalaFX
big sell
People don't plan to lose. They lose because they don't plan.
  • #856,095
  • Mar 6, 2025 1:59am Mar 6, 2025 1:59am
Quoting firsttimer
GJ - i will look for long setups to 193 per chart. GU - it is still bullish. I will wait for further price action to determine the direction (short or long) {image}
bias has changed for GJ to bearish. no setups for any longs in earlier session.

I will now look for shorts setup at 191.
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  • #856,096
  • Mar 6, 2025 1:59am Mar 6, 2025 1:59am
...the current p/back (off the 2924 current dly hi) pretty much ='s the deepest downside p/back in the run up since the current 2559 wkly lo, so far. Can the bears build on this? Lots of fibs and some clusters below current dly lo.

1hr below

...gmt+2 price feed 4hr candle just closed thusly:

4hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #856,097
  • Mar 6, 2025 2:03am Mar 6, 2025 2:03am
Know where you are on the chart

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  • #856,098
  • Mar 6, 2025 2:08am Mar 6, 2025 2:08am
Quoting ScalaFX
{quote}
Not yet a big sell. Maybe from 150 pip move
  • #856,099
  • Mar 6, 2025 2:12am Mar 6, 2025 2:12am
Quoting Jackoboms
{quote} Not yet a big sell. Maybe from 150 pip move
yeah, just started
People don't plan to lose. They lose because they don't plan.
  • #856,100
  • Mar 6, 2025 2:12am Mar 6, 2025 2:12am
USD fall is a little too much. This is also partly it makes me hesitate to short GU.

i feel USD will be pushed down abit more before a huge rebound. but nobody knows.

Best to think ahead of the different price action that can happen and act accordingly.
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