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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #21,881
  • Jul 31, 2007 4:31am Jul 31, 2007 4:31am
Quoting de123
dexis,...ok. lets do that... short cable short,....pls tell me when Lithuania will get EUROs, whats the inflation there etc...
Inflation is around 4.3%

Things are quite messy here speaking economically...

You can get a quick look at Lithuania's economic prospect and forecasts here
http://www.lb.lt/eng/economy/macroec...4_santr_en.pdf

Oh, and the EURO, that'll have to wait till 2010 I guess
  • #21,882
  • Jul 31, 2007 4:37am Jul 31, 2007 4:37am
Quoting squaw
Today we will rise till 2.0350
Do you think so? Consumer confidence -6?
  • #21,883
  • Jul 31, 2007 4:45am Jul 31, 2007 4:45am
Quoting Forexpupil
Do you think so? Consumer confidence -6?
Generally, Consumer Confidence is not a major news release and it usually doesn't do much impact on related pairs

I've taken my 18 pip loss, let's move forward
  • #21,884
  • Jul 31, 2007 4:46am Jul 31, 2007 4:46am
So much for those looking for direction, today.

Cable: above 0300 looks long. Not moving looks short
Euro: above 3700 looks long. Not moving looks short
UJ: can look long and short in the same 1hr candle :
  • #21,885
  • Jul 31, 2007 4:50am Jul 31, 2007 4:50am
Quoting cesarnc
So much for those looking for direction, today.

Cable: above 0300 looks long. Not moving looks short
Euro: above 3700 looks long. Not moving looks short
UJ: can look long and short in the same 1hr candle :
loonies are the kings
  • #21,886
  • Jul 31, 2007 4:52am Jul 31, 2007 4:52am
0374 is my reversal point for cable give or take, will be closing short hedge and adding for further push south me thinks
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #21,887
  • Jul 31, 2007 4:54am Jul 31, 2007 4:54am
Quoting benssol
loonies are the kings
yup. USDCAD looks set to meltdown...
  • #21,888
  • Jul 31, 2007 5:10am Jul 31, 2007 5:10am
Quoting benssol
wow man
we are not in war here
if the bulls are the stonger I'm with them
and if the bears are the stronger I'm a very big bear

so please save the wisdom to yourself and dont defend your open positions here, it's a bad habit
???

Perhaps English is not your first language, I am agreeing with you not contending you, and I was also cracking a joke. Please relax. As for my trades, I do not put all of them here, but I sometimes call out trades on pairs related to the GBP, you will find me & cesar doing this a lot because the GBPUSD moves quite a lot of things in the market.

Love,
-A
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #21,889
  • Jul 31, 2007 5:16am Jul 31, 2007 5:16am
The prices are not moving at all especially the Euro

I think the market is waiting for NFP data this Friday.
  • #21,890
  • Jul 31, 2007 5:18am Jul 31, 2007 5:18am
Quoting Plutonite


I agree, but a month ago we were all singing a different tune eh? We were singing a song with lots of "bad words" in it in fact

Shorting Euro (already done at 1.3720) and cable (now), simple price action + fibs, see you in GBP hell. Good luck!
USDCHF has had a good inverse correlation with the Euro and cable in the past, and it's happening now too it seems. Has anyone noticed how relatively stress free (compared to the recent madness) the USDCHF trading has been? Very sane stuff. I am long now to complement the Euro short, holding the losses in GBPUSD in hope for a new short-term bearish channel in GBPUSD. Good luck.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #21,891
  • Jul 31, 2007 5:20am Jul 31, 2007 5:20am
Quoting cesarnc
yup. USDCAD looks set to meltdown...
Don't hope for too much, it's a loonie pair this loonie, and I shorted earlier when I saw the first decent PA on it in like a week, but I am out now..this is probably just a retracement, or as such the stars are telling me
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #21,892
  • Jul 31, 2007 5:31am Jul 31, 2007 5:31am
Quoting Plutonite
... or as such the stars are telling me
http://www.aliendave.com/files/graphix/crazy_smiley.gif
  • #21,893
  • Jul 31, 2007 5:36am Jul 31, 2007 5:36am
European Market Update - German and Euro-Zone Unemployment Rates Fall to Multi-year Lows

- The European indices are trading higher in the session as risk premiums being to decline as seen in the, recently much talked about, iTraxx crossover index. Sub-prime fears have not diminished however, as shares of Radian and MGIC traded lower post close in the US yesterday after the companies announced that a sub-prime loan joint venture may now be worthless after requiring over $1B in writedowns.

- European government bonds are currently trading lower in the session as market participants roll back into equity as the burden of high risk premiums has seemingly receded for moment. Over in the UK gilts are tracking their European counterparts as market participants reinvest in equity.

- German retail sales for the month of June rose by less than expected to 0.7% m/m, and -0.8% y/y from downwardly revised readings of -2.5% and -4.2% respectively. According to most analysts the decline in retail sales is still due to the negative base effect in the first-quarter from the VAT hike. The weak retail sales seem to question the strength and the expected longevity of the export- driven economic upswing, as well as recent readings on sentiment indicators, which have been at or around multi-year highs.

- The German ILO unemployment rate for the month of June matched the downwardly revised reading for May at 6.3%, the lowest reading since records began in January of 2004. Further on the unemployment front, the German unemployment change for the month of July was -45K, below estimates of -28K, while the unemployment rates declined to 9.0% as expected, its lowest rate since July of 1993.

- The French consumer confidence indicator for the month of July, which was expected to remain unchanged from June, declined to -15 from the prior reading of -12. Taking a look at the sub-components on the reading, under the future sentiment sub-index, the standard of living declined to -9 in July from -3 in June, while the personal finance situation and the evolution of prices rose slightly. Under the current sentiment sub-index the purchasing opportunity declined slightly, as did the savings opportunity component.

- On the housing front, French housing starts rose to -3.9% in June from -4.7%, while housing permits declined to -4.8% from 1.9% in June.

- Italian producer prices for the month of June declined by more than expected to 0.2% m/m from 0.4% in May, while the y/y reading, which was expected to remain unchanged at 3.0%, declined to 2.8, its lowest level since May of 2004. Component wise, the bigger m/m declines were seen in the manufactured goods and metals components.

- Preliminary Italian consumer prices for the month of July were in line with expectations at 0.2% m/m, and were just below estimates at 1.6% y/y, while harmonized consumer prices were just below expectations at -0.4% m/m, and were in line with expectations at 1.9% y/y.

- The Euro-Zone CPI estimate for the month of July unexpectedly declined to 1.8% from 1.9% in June overnight, while the June unemployment rate declined to 6.9%, its lowest reading since records began in January of 1993. As expected the July consumer confidence was -2, industrial confidence was 5, and services confidence was 21, while the business climate indicator declined to 1.35 from 1.54 in June, and the economic confidence declined to 111.0 from 111.7 in June.

- In the UK overnight the July GFK consumer confidence survey declined by more than expected to -6 from 4 in June. Consumer confidence declined to a three month low as higher interest rates seemed to boost the propensity to save.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #21,894
  • Jul 31, 2007 5:44am Jul 31, 2007 5:44am
I think around 2.0326 is a good place to go short but the pair might hit 2.0360 before and than go further south... Today's data is important.
  • #21,895
  • Jul 31, 2007 5:50am Jul 31, 2007 5:50am
Quoting Plutonite
???

Perhaps English is not your first language, I am agreeing with you not contending you, and I was also cracking a joke. Please relax. As for my trades, I do not put all of them here, but I sometimes call out trades on pairs related to the GBP, you will find me & cesar doing this a lot because the GBPUSD moves quite a lot of things in the market.

Love,
-A
sorry for misunderstanding

so can you rephrase your post to read it again

you know English is my 4th language, so forgive me
  • #21,896
  • Jul 31, 2007 5:55am Jul 31, 2007 5:55am
Long UJ long
Short USDCAD short
Short Euro short
Short Cable short
Long GJ long

http://forum.gtarena.net/images/smilies/smiley_rock.gif
  • #21,897
  • Jul 31, 2007 5:58am Jul 31, 2007 5:58am
I think a pull back to 1.0300 (Daily R1) is expected. From there depending on US figures it could go either way. May be a test of 23.6 Fibo (1.0413) or a retest of 38.2 (2.0258) I have Bullish MACD on 4hr showing. R1 is the key for today! Just my thoughts.
  • #21,898
  • Jul 31, 2007 5:59am Jul 31, 2007 5:59am
Quoting cesarnc
Long UJ long
Short USDCAD short
Short Euro short
Short Cable short
Long GJ long

http://forum.gtarena.net/images/smilies/smiley_rock.gif
good call Cesar...
especially in USDCAD since i believe its over over overbought. and in UJ i am expecting a close above 119.43 to go north.
  • #21,899
  • Jul 31, 2007 6:01am Jul 31, 2007 6:01am
Quoting Alfa159
good call Cesar...
I'm not "calling". I'm "begging"
  • #21,900
  • Jul 31, 2007 6:07am Jul 31, 2007 6:07am
Quoting cesarnc
I'm not "calling". I'm "begging"
well lets beg together than however technically speaking those are wise calls ( i mean begs )

Us data will shapen up our ways though thats for sure.
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