Consolidation around 1.9800ish then resumed bull run next week. I think the "profit taking" was short-lived today as cable fell from its high to the current level, and slightly lower. Sharks smell blood and cable will probably take off again next week.
- #522
- Dec 1, 2006 3:22pm Dec 1, 2006 3:22pm
- | Joined May 2006 | Status: Trade Towards the 5 ema | 2,881 Posts
- #523
- Dec 1, 2006 3:22pm Dec 1, 2006 3:22pm
- | Joined May 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,043 Posts
BK,
You're getting closer.
I wrote the following October 2, 2006 elsewhere in FF:
Today I won't explain, but I will state the following: the next number to watch is not housing or PCE, but employment, or rather the lack thereof.
Rising unemployment in this current economic environment ("soft landing") signals recession. And all you economists out there know what that means for interest rates. So sure, NewstraderFX is right stating that the fed remains "data dependent" (as well as politically influenced) but the real question is which data? I submit the focus will shift to unemployment data.
When monitoring fedspeak, watch their mouths move, hear what they say but listen to what remains unsaid. That's what the great magicians always knew - the art of misdirection. The fed wants you to look at housing and pce ("oh me oh my, we're so concerned about inflation" fedspeak) while they'll be monitoring unemployment ("the truth is, we're concerned about a possible recession") during the next several months.
So what we see now is an unexpectedly low NFP, but an upwardly revised NFP ("see? things aren't so bad after all") which reminded me of ADP's faux pas several months ago where they were so widely divergent from the official government release. Government has the advantage of "revising" data at a later date. Point is the government's numbers were incorrect. Add to this, the "acceptable" level of unemployment (acceptable if you're employed).
Conclusion: Rising unemployment signals recession but the government doesn't want you to think that, so with smoke and mirrors it diverts your attention towards matters such as inflation or housing or pce or the world series.
Look for a US interest rate change, probably down, February 2007.....during government's 2nd quarter fiscal year 2007 (which is 1st quarter for most private businesses).
Just information; not a recommendation.
- #529
- Edited 3:04pm Dec 2, 2006 2:26pm | Edited 3:04pm
- | Joined May 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,043 Posts
- #531
- Dec 2, 2006 7:45pm Dec 2, 2006 7:45pm
- | Joined May 2006 | Status: Trade Towards the 5 ema | 2,881 Posts
- #539
- Dec 3, 2006 11:01am Dec 3, 2006 11:01am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Mar 2005 | 4,703 Posts
my short order open at .98 (sell). Should i close it since no way its going towards south yet?
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
- #540
- Dec 3, 2006 11:05am Dec 3, 2006 11:05am
- Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,852 Posts
goodthings,
I'm with you, long at 1.9800 through the weekend. If cable hasn't reached 2.0000 by 8 December 2006, then NFP will almost certainly push cable beyond 2.0000. Last quote I have is 1.9797 from one broker and 1.9807 on another, both probably Friday's close.
