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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #855,641
  • Edited 10:32am Mar 1, 2025 9:51am | Edited 10:32am
March expected range
25%: 420
Median: 530

History shows yearly opens aren't easily broken. If so, next boundary is 1.244 - Feb VAL
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We have 620 pips range in 42 days.
Range distribution for 60 days: price is near the top, so bias for upper breakout
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OI decreasing as expected. -2.5k on Thu and -1.3k on Fri. (doesn't suggest a new trend build up). Contract expires March 14th.
Thus, my minimal target for March is 1.2715 with possible extension to 1.282
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DX.
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Air force
  • #855,642
  • Mar 1, 2025 10:18am Mar 1, 2025 10:18am
Feb candle. Compare with the following:
Nov '23
Sep '19
Apr '13
Aug '05
Jul '01

Found by the script given similar conditions. Prev bearish close && current close above prev high && current close below open 2 candles back (kinda down leg)
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Air force
  • #855,643
  • Mar 1, 2025 10:35am Mar 1, 2025 10:35am
Quoting W0lfram
Feb candle. Compare with the following: Nov '23 Sep '19 Apr '13 Aug '05 Jul '01 Found by the script given similar conditions. Prev bearish close && current close above prev high && current close below open 2 candles back (kinda down leg) {image}

good work wolfram but don't be too quick to buy GU just yet

adding a word like bullish to a candle that isn't even an engulfing one like our colleague headland did signifies or at the minimum insinuates that there will be further upside followthru in the next couple weeks if not immediately so that's why he prolly should have just said februrary was just an engulfing candle

the thing is price can range or drift lower for 3 weeks until the march 14 lockdown and after or 3 inside months before shooting up since the stable genius is firing everybody in government which will cause a recession that will kill the dollar and that may spill over across the world

I don't need to tell you to keep the monthly in the back of your mind and trade the weekly short signal candle we got Friday ....I'm sure the two brothers by different fathers will keep heckling me the whole time saying I'm wrong cause they will scalp long on 5 min charts LOL
short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #855,644
  • Edited 5:07pm Mar 1, 2025 11:00am | Edited 5:07pm
Quoting Zebi
{quote} good work wolfram but don't be too quick to buy GU just yet adding a word like bullish to a candle that isn't even an engulfing one like our colleague headland did signifies or at the minimum insinuates that there will be further upside followthru in the next couple weeks if not immediately so that's why he prolly should have just said februrary was just an engulfing candle the thing is price can range or drift lower for 3 weeks until the march 14 lockdown and after or 3 inside months before shooting up since the stable genius is...
I'll gradually increase my exposure in case we gonna see 1.25 or lower.

Idk whether words like bullish means further move up or vice versa.
I've used bearish close bc close[1] < open[1] && close[0] > high[1] && close[0] < open[2] translated this to words. Imo, bullish engulfing means only a close above prev. high - only to categorize and distinguish candles.

I did some research back in a days. All those known patterns (engulf, hammers, etc) could be traded either way with the same profit expectations.
I.e. going long after bullish engulfing will lend the same results as if you were short.
Additional filters or higher TF not always improve the situation
Air force
  • #855,645
  • Mar 1, 2025 11:03am Mar 1, 2025 11:03am
Quoting Zebi
{quote} good work wolfram but don't be too quick to buy GU just yet adding a word like bullish to a candle that isn't even an engulfing one like our colleague headland did signifies or at the minimum insinuates that there will be further upside followthru in the next couple weeks if not immediately so that's why he prolly should have just said februrary was just an engulfing candle the thing is price can range or drift lower for 3 weeks until the march 14 lockdown and after or 3 inside months before shooting up since the stable genius is...
Please O great one could you spare the time to explain how "Hedging" works as I keep losing money over and over again....
  • #855,646
  • Mar 1, 2025 11:14am Mar 1, 2025 11:14am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Please O great one could you spare the time to explain how "Hedging" works as I keep losing money over and over again....
sure...but much later

cause I'm leaving right now...so stay tuned to this bat channel
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short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #855,647
  • Mar 1, 2025 11:17am Mar 1, 2025 11:17am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Ominous signs of GU topping. I am in with some sell trades with mental stope above 1.2700. Last week's pivot was not tested, and I'd expect a short-term goal to 1.25139 at least. The move up was too quick and suspect a fall for now at least. Cheers. {image}
So far so good. The above Gu sell trades looking good. 1.25139 to 1.25000 needs to be broken on a daily timeframe to suggest further declines. Having said. I remain positive for a bounce off this area for further bullish moves.
Trade safe.
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Trade to trade another day
  • #855,648
  • Mar 1, 2025 11:47am Mar 1, 2025 11:47am
Quoting Zebi
{quote} sure...but much later cause I'm leaving right now...so stay tuned to this bat channel {image}
Great thank you sooooo much...
  • #855,649
  • Edited 12:12pm Mar 1, 2025 12:00pm | Edited 12:12pm
The monthly is printed with a high probability bullish engulfing.
I give it over 75% probability the daily trend is UP before I see the monthly open.
The Gap down element is the only thing that bothers me about this engulfing meaning, also the last bearish quarterly is worth noting which might be into support.

Its hammer + confirmation (defective)

If it failed outright, that is a very strong signal.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #855,650
  • Edited 2:04pm Mar 1, 2025 12:37pm | Edited 2:04pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
The US M2 Money Supply data for January 2025 has been released: inflation is only +0.06%. This is much better compared to the previous inflation rate of approximately +0.40%. {image}
Major Currencies M2 Supply
Inflation - Deflation Data
Jan 2025

Inserted Code
+---------+------------------+---------------+-------------------------+-------------------------+-------------------------+---------------------+-----------------------------+
| Currency| Country/Region   | M2 Nov 2024   | M2 Dec 2024             | M2 Jan 2025             | Monthly Growth (MoM)    | Inflation/Deflation | Notes                       |
+---------+------------------+---------------+-------------------------+-------------------------+-------------------------+---------------------+-----------------------------+
| CHF     | Switzerland      | —             | 972,092 M               | 969,979 M               | -0.22%                  | D                   | Data from Trading Economics |
| EUR     | Euro Area        | —             | 15,575,663 M            | 15,582,889 M            | +0.05%                  | I                   | Data from Trading Economics |
| USD     | United States    | —             | 21,549 B                | 21,561 B                | +0.06%                  | I                   | Data from Trading Economics |
| JPY     | Japan            | —             | 1,257,684 B             | 1,258,835 B             | +0.09%                  | I                   | Data from Trading Economics |
| GBP     | United Kingdom   | 3,069,877 M   | 3,081,847 M             | ?                       | +0.39%                  | I                   | Data from Trading Economics |
| CAD     | Canada           | 2,625,309 M   | 2,638,116 M             | ?                       | +0.49%                  | I                   | Data from Trading Economics |
| AUD     | Australia        | —             | —                       | —                       | -0.40                   | D                   | Data from CEICDATA          |
| NZD     | New Zealand      | —             | —                       | —                       | +0.76                   | I                   | Data from CEICDATA          |
+---------+------------------+---------------+-------------------------+-------------------------+-------------------------+---------------------+-----------------------------+

GBP Next Update: March 3, 2025
CAD Next Update: March 7, 2025
fooled by randomness in art
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  • #855,651
  • Mar 1, 2025 4:52pm Mar 1, 2025 4:52pm
Quoting Zebi
{quote} I'm not a nitpicker when it comes to candles or patterns since in real life, trading candles don't resemble the cherry-picked examples in books, however I personally don't see it as an engulfing candle of anykind since it didn't get near janurarys lows much less a bullish one LOL so why didn't you just say it was an engulfing candle without adding the word bullish?....you don't see the misunderstanding caused by inserting that word in your description of the candle since it isn't engulfing in the first place LOL...to me its more of an inside...
The accepted wisdom/learning re an engulfing candle is that the body engulfs at least the previous candle's body, so I called it what it is because it did so bullishly, hence it's a bullish engulfing candle, whether you agree with the name or whether you don't! The name of the candle does not imply that there will be upside follow-thru per say, it's just what it is called. Read into what you will. It may be though that on that t/f (mthly,) and on this pairing (gbpusd,) someone has a multi-year representative sample (s) to suggest that such an upside follow-thru is the greater probability or indeed the lesser probability? I have no such stats/empirical evidence in this respect for this mthly t/f/pairing.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #855,652
  • Mar 1, 2025 7:56pm Mar 1, 2025 7:56pm
GBP....

Forecasts indicate potential turning points, but there is no absolute accuracy. Instead of relying on specific dates, it's better to use weekly markers (1st week, 2nd week, etc.) for planning ahead. The final step is to wait for that week to arrive and execute accordingly.

But of course, anything can happen, and there are no guarantees at all. Planning ahead doesn’t mean predicting the future—it means preparing for it. A trader without a plan is like a sailor without a compass.

A turning point doesn’t necessarily mean price will break the previous swing high or swing low. Everything depends on the situation,price might form a turning point but stay within a range, leading to consolidation. It could also make a quick move, reject a level, and then return to its original direction.

Our bias is just a hypothesis. Treat it like one—stay neutral until your triggers are hit. Never marry your bias. Be ready to flip if the market tells you you’re wrong. Stay flexible and adaptable.

This is not a signal indicator—just a directional bias. As other traders always say: Use fundamentals for bias direction and technicals for entry points. Stay patient, stay prepared, and let the market come to you.
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https://x.com/moneyprinte
  • #855,653
  • Edited 8:29pm Mar 1, 2025 8:03pm | Edited 8:29pm
Quoting Headland
{quote} The accepted wisdom/learning re an engulfing candle is that the body engulfs at least the previous candle's body, so I called it what it is because it did so bullishly, hence it's a bullish engulfing candle, whether you agree with the name or whether you don't! The name of the candle does not imply that there will be upside follow-thru per say, it's just what it is called. Read into what you will. It may be though that on that t/f (mthly,) and on this pairing (gbpusd,) someone has a multi-year representative sample (s) to suggest that such...
Quote
engulfing candle is that the body engulfs at least the previous candle's body
I took this rule: close[1] < open[1] && close[0] > open[1].

Found 37 cases.
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Here on mini-charts. Dates are fake for technical reasons, days instead of months (otherwise looks ugly), but each candle is Monthly.
I have marked failed and "meh" cases. Feb 2025 obviously removed
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What kind of dynamics can be expected in the next 6 months after the pattern:
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Funny part: notice, that median is the same, other quantiles vary a 'little'
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Each pattern on each TF is as bullish as it is bearish.
Adding more conditions works sometimes, but can significantly reduce the sample size. As per previous chart - only 6 examples
Air force
  • #855,654
  • Edited 9:42pm Mar 1, 2025 8:47pm | Edited 9:42pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Please O great one could you spare the time to explain how "Hedging" works as I keep losing money over and over again....
being the smart guy you are I'm sure you know all this I'm about to paste below about hedging

Then, around 1848, farmers and dealers came up with a better idea. Farmers would ask dealers if they were willing to commit to buy grain at a specific, agreed-upon price today to be paid in the future when the grain was delivered (often in the next year).
If the farmer and the dealer agreed, the two parties made a “commitment” they would write on a blackboard that would hold both liable: for the farmer to deliver the grain at the specified price, and for the dealer to buy the grain at the same specified price.
These events essentially summarize the beginning of the Chicago Board of Trade, which was founded in 1848. It also represents the origins of modern hedging in the United States.


"hedging" by pisant retail stock,forex and futures traders of the same instrument in the same account was banned after the 2009 financial crisis in usa but I did it a few times before the ban and it didn't make much sense to me even then...it was easier to just average up or down my losing trade and then close at even to save my skin.

opening a long and short at the same time at the same price isn't hedging like what you do in your thread even if you keep calling it that just like headlands monthly candle isn't an engulfing one no matter how much he insists that it is since I don't think there's a candlestick book or video that has his example of that


but getting back to you waveskierrob...seems to me what you're doing on your thread is more of a type of bracket trading where you open a long and short at the same price instead of the usual way spreading the entries like a bracket trade is usually set up ...look that up if you're not familiar with it.

a real honest to goodness hedge trade happened on forexfactory this week by thaoanh in these trades

Quoting ThaoAnh
{image}
she went short in that quote above and then went long still holding her profitable shorts in the same account later on instead of closing them first

Quoting ThaoAnh
{quote} {image}
Quoting ThaoAnh
{quote} {image}
shes very good waveskier...i may have to ask her for tutoring ...shes gonna be the best trader on forexfactory in the future

so anyways that's what a hedge is in financial instruments....there other kinds of hedges that americans cant do without opening other accounts

but most people on forexfactory end up "hedging" a trade cause they losing money and are close to the dreaded margin call


ill have more to say about braket trading using your examples in a later post
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short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #855,655
  • Mar 1, 2025 9:45pm Mar 1, 2025 9:45pm
Quoting Zebi
{quote} being the smart guy you are I'm sure you know all this I'm about to paste below about hedging Then, around 1848, farmers and dealers came up with a better idea. Farmers would ask dealers if they were willing to commit to buy grain at a specific, agreed-upon price today to be paid in the future when the grain was delivered (often in the next year). If the farmer and the dealer agreed, the two parties made a “commitment” they would write on a blackboard that would hold both liable: for the farmer to deliver the grain at the specified price,...

The plain skinny hedge burger made by Zeb's before it was thrown in the garbage.
The fat juicy hedge burger behind it was made by a professional who knows how to cook up yummy burgers and was happily eaten.
Zeb not much of a hedge burger cook.
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  • #855,656
  • Mar 1, 2025 9:53pm Mar 1, 2025 9:53pm
Zeb, the way you trade is not what hedging is made for and therefore it won't make sense for you as you have found out.
The way Waves does his trading, it is very celever to use hedging when/if needed and from those screenshots of his posts that you posted, I kinda can tell it makes sense.
So obvious that your styles are different. Why should 'hedging' be something that seamlessly fits 2 different styles of trading?
  • #855,657
  • Edited 10:23pm Mar 1, 2025 10:12pm | Edited 10:23pm
Quoting Zebi
{quote} being the smart guy you are I'm sure you know all this I'm about to paste below about hedging Then, around 1848, farmers and dealers came up with a better idea. Farmers would ask dealers if they were willing to commit to buy grain at a specific, agreed-upon price today to be paid in the future when the grain was delivered (often in the next year). If the farmer and the dealer agreed, the two parties made a “commitment” they would write on a blackboard that would hold both liable: for the farmer to deliver the grain at the specified price,...
Bracket or Basket? I guess both. I once did it in a past demo, and it could generate profits, but capital endurance was indeed the challenge. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...16#post8988416

As for hedging, I actually think it's like what Grandpa Taleb taught—investing in low-risk instruments such as deposits, government securities, cash, etc., and only allocating about 10% to high-risk instruments such as forex, futures, stocks, and so on. Then, hedging can be done by going against the majority; example like while all stock traders are always buying, Taleb opts for many small short position in put options at all times, or can do both, long stock, sell insurance put options for cover.
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  • #855,658
  • Mar 1, 2025 10:55pm Mar 1, 2025 10:55pm
the british definition of hedging must mean something different than the american one LOL

cause what he does looks like bracketing and not hedging to my yankee eyes

instead of bracketing an open and close or the high and low of candles or even support/resistence levels he's zoomed in and brakets a single price by going long short just that ...so unless the British changed the definition or its just a bonnet/hood type thing it still looks acts and resembles bracketing LOL
there's nothing wrong with doing that except if price doesn't hit both tp's and than your stuck trying to do a real hedge

Quoting Waveskierrob
...and they say to me hedging doesn't work... {image}
Quoting Waveskierrob
Well that's me done for the week closed all my negative trades start a fresh Monday.... {image}
this is one example I wanted to post of the hedged or bracket trades...seems like a lot of work opening up and closing trades to make 152 dollars...i don't know if that's all his trades or just some but that's what he posted in this room so that's why I'm using these two quotes

there's nothing wrong trading like this...and I don't know if that's the complete list of his trades since he just posts screenshots of profit/losses which is more commendable than 99% of all the other screenshot posters that just show profits LOL

and i dont know if hes changed his style since 2022 like my screenshot above and goes for more than just a +2 pip profit like in the earlier example few posts ago or if he does something different now cause im not really interested to waste too much more time on this "hedging" he keeps saying he does but atleast he showing his losses and in this particular case the small profit from so much work bracketing price points

if anyone likes this hedge/bracket approach visit his thread and learn since he's more honest and transparent than that other guy that always edits his charts and posts LOL
short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #855,659
  • Mar 1, 2025 11:01pm Mar 1, 2025 11:01pm
Quoting Zebi
{quote} being the smart guy you are I'm sure you know all this I'm about to paste below about hedging Then, around 1848, farmers and dealers came up with a better idea. Farmers would ask dealers if they were willing to commit to buy grain at a specific, agreed-upon price today to be paid in the future when the grain was delivered (often in the next year). If the farmer and the dealer agreed, the two parties made a “commitment” they would write on a blackboard that would hold both liable: for the farmer to deliver the grain at the specified price,...
Anyone can copy and paste, I was more after "your" actual real experience of hedging, how can you give advice on something if you havnt done it yourself, maybe you could have shown some examples but you've said that you don't use hedging, thanks for your reply as I now know your ( read somewhere ) understanding on this subject.
  • #855,660
  • Mar 1, 2025 11:10pm Mar 1, 2025 11:10pm
Quoting Zebi
the british definition of hedging must mean something different than the american one LOL cause what he does looks like bracketing and not hedging to my yankee eyes instead of bracketing an open and close or the high and low of candles or even support/resistence levels he's zoomed in and brakets a single price by going long short just that ...so unless the British changed the definition or its just a bonnet/hood type thing it still looks acts and resembles bracketing LOL there's nothing wrong with doing that except if price doesn't hit both...
...another great example of jumping to conclusions which Zebi does all the time, just a little bit of advice, maybe asks question, rather thinking you know everything because you read it somewhere, try and think for yourself ....
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