Cable Update (GBPUSD)

what's the general outlook that everyone is having in anticipation for tomorrow

Yen pairs ej, gj, uj are bearish again. Will look for shorting opportunities.

We at 1.27 yet?? Sheeesh. Ive been waiting for this damn level. You think Asian will get us there?

heres a pattern

Man i miss this place its been too long

I went long on the big one GBPNZD, target 2.22300

I'm short on Gold, target 2,860.0

GN

waiting for N3

Doesn't look like it

Long time bro, welcome.

Yeh still a bearish outlook. Now breaking below daily pivot. It may bounce up from there but I dont know. I dont ever long in these bearish monthly territories anyway. I just want to look for shorts around 1.27 level before Feb ends but I dont know if it will get there. Seems MR1 may be the turn around target.

Bulls def putting up a fight though lol. Keep sending price up bulls so I can keep knocking it down lol. In trading and in life really, your opposition should be your ally as well. Use them to get to a better understanding and the truth.

I know I'm beginning to sound like a broken record but this is the time finally

house republicans passed their budget bill so the dollar will go up until the senate votes next few days

ill add another short ifn the daily candle closes red which has a good chance it will

this is finally going down baby

bones brought up a monthly chart earlier and I think price will test last months high at 2576 and if closes under means it will range a few more weeks

Im still longterm bullish but until march 14 when the government shutdown might start I'm bearish GU

Bull run may start again from here 1.2640....

And if not, let watch out from 1.2610/20..

Have a nice day trading

Tapping 30 minute 200EMA at a 4hour support zone

look at the dollar chart gentlemen

3-month - 10yr treasury yield inverted again. Market is pricing in rate cuts in the short term at least. Grok3 gave a rather good analysis:

To determine whether the recent inversion of the US 3-month Treasury yield minus the 10-year Treasury yield, driven by concerns about economic growth and recession, would be bullish or bearish for the DXY (US Dollar Index), let’s break this down step-by-step.
Understanding the Yield Curve Inversion
A yield curve inversion occurs when short-term Treasury yields, like the 3-month, exceed long-term yields, such as the 10-year. Normally, longer-term bonds offer higher yields to compensate investors for tying up their money for an extended period. An inversion, therefore, is an unusual event and often interpreted as a warning sign of economic slowdown or recession. In this case, the inversion is attributed to fears about weakening US economic growth, which influences investor behavior and market expectations.

Factors Influencing the DXY
The DXY measures the US dollar’s value against a basket of major currencies, with the euro holding the largest weight (about 57%), followed by the yen, pound, and others. Whether this inversion is bullish (strengthening the dollar) or bearish (weakening the dollar) depends on several interconnected factors: interest rate expectations, safe-haven flows, and relative economic conditions globally.

1. Interest Rate Expectations
The inversion suggests that investors anticipate economic trouble ahead, which could prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower interest rates in the future to stimulate growth. Here’s how this plays out:

1. Short-Term Impact: If the Fed is currently raising short-term rates to combat inflation (pushing the 3-month yield higher), while long-term yields (like the 10-year) fall due to recession fears, the inversion reflects a market expectation that these high short-term rates won’t last. Currency markets often price in future expectations, so if traders anticipate Fed rate cuts, the dollar could weaken now, as lower rates reduce the appeal of dollar-denominated assets.
2. Historical Context: Before the 2001 and 2008 recessions, yield curve inversions (e.g., in 2000 and 2006-2007) were followed by periods of dollar weakness as markets anticipated Fed easing. Although the DXY rose briefly in 2000, it fell as rate cuts materialized, and in 2006-2007, it declined steadily before the recession hit.

In the current environment, the Fed has been hiking rates aggressively to tackle inflation, supporting the dollar’s recent strength. However, an inversion signaling recession risks could shift expectations toward an earlier Fed pivot to rate cuts, undermining that support and suggesting a bearish outlook for the DXY.

2. Safe-Haven Flows
The US dollar is a primary safe-haven currency, often strengthening during global uncertainty:

1. Bullish Case: If recession fears trigger risk aversion, investors might flock to the dollar, boosting the DXY. For instance, during the COVID-19 panic in March 2020, the DXY spiked as investors sought dollar liquidity, and historically, the dollar has gained during acute global downturns.
2. Counterpoint: Since this inversion stems from US-specific growth concerns, the flight to safety might be less pronounced if investors question the US economy’s resilience. Alternative safe-havens like the yen or Swiss franc (included in the DXY but with smaller weights) could compete, though the dollar’s dominance and the US Treasury market’s liquidity typically prevail.

Given the euro’s heavy weighting in the DXY, a flight to safety might strengthen the dollar against the euro (not a traditional safe-haven), potentially lifting the index. However, if US-specific weakness dominates, this effect could be muted.

3. Relative Global Conditions
The DXY’s movement also depends on other economies:

1. US vs. Others: Many regions, like the Eurozone (facing an energy crisis) and China (with zero-COVID policies), are also grappling with growth challenges. If the US recession signal is seen as more severe, or if the Fed cuts rates more aggressively than other central banks (e.g., the ECB), the dollar could weaken relative to those currencies. Conversely, if global conditions deteriorate faster, the dollar might hold up as the “least weak” currency.
2. Interest Rate Differentials: Even if US rates are expected to fall, as long as they remain higher than peers’, the dollar could stay attractive. Yet, the inversion implies a future narrowing of this gap, which markets may price in early, favoring a bearish view.

Synthesis and Conclusion
The yield curve inversion, tied to US economic growth concerns, sends a dual signal:

1. Bearish Pressure: It foreshadows a potential recession and Fed rate cuts, reducing the dollar’s yield advantage. Markets, being forward-looking, may weaken the dollar now as they anticipate this shift, especially given the DXY’s sensitivity to euro movements and the Fed’s recent hawkish stance nearing a possible peak.
2. Bullish Counterforce: Safe-haven demand could temporarily bolster the dollar, as seen in past crises, though this may be tempered if the US is the focal point of weakness.

On balance, the specific trigger—concerns about US growth—tilts the scales toward a bearish outcome. Historical patterns show mixed results (e.g., dollar strength in 2000, weakness in 2006-2007), but in today’s context, with the dollar already strong from Fed hikes, the inversion likely signals a reversal as markets brace for easing. Recent DXY dips after weak US data further support this view. While short-term safe-haven flows might cause volatility, the sustained implication of recession and rate cuts points to dollar weakness.
Thus, I conclude that this yield curve inversion would be bearish for the DXY.

I don't trust an algorithm that can be made to say anything some nerd wants it to

especially musk related algorithm...have you looked at TSLA stock chart

the guys gonna panhandle for soup money soon ...he's lost over 40 billion since his buddy trump got inaugurated LOL

And?

back to the original plan