Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Quoting BeeTogether

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{quote} 127 is very close.. maybe the 12750 area before a correction

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Quoting Abeylyn

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{quote} Likely reaction to the downside @ 1.2720/35 before final bull run to 1.2765/80 zone.

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Quoting sharingan9

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{quote} I hope so because Ive been hearing talks of this 1.27 for weeks now. It's becoming a level of legend...its own myth really. I want to see this magical place. What's it like? lol

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Whether you should be bullish or bearish on the US Dollar Index (DXY) if the risk of stagnation is rising in the USA depends on a few key economic dynamics that tend to play out in such a scenario. Stagnation—typically characterized by slow or no economic growth, subdued inflation, and potentially persistent unemployment—can have mixed effects on the dollar, so let’s break it down.
On one hand, stagnation could make you bearish on the DXY. If the US economy slows significantly, the Federal Reserve might respond by cutting interest rates to stimulate growth. Lower interest rates reduce the yield on dollar-denominated assets, making them less attractive to foreign investors. This could weaken demand for the dollar, pushing the DXY lower. Additionally, if stagnation signals broader economic weakness compared to other global economies, capital might flow out of the US toward regions with stronger growth prospects, further pressuring the dollar. Rising US fiscal deficits, which often accompany stagnation as the government ramps up spending to boost the economy, could also erode confidence in the dollar over time, especially if debt levels become unsustainable.
On the other hand, there’s a case for being bullish on the DXY. During periods of economic uncertainty or stagnation, the US dollar often benefits from its "safe-haven" status. Global investors tend to flock to dollar-based assets, like US Treasuries, when growth falters elsewhere or when uncertainty spikes, even if the US itself is stagnating. This flight-to-safety effect can prop up the DXY, especially if other major economies (like the Eurozone or Japan) are also struggling or easing monetary policy more aggressively. The dollar’s strength in past slowdowns—like during the 2008 financial crisis—shows how it can hold up or even rally when risk aversion dominates.
Right now, as of February 24, 2025, the interplay of these factors isn’t clear-cut. If stagnation in the US is seen as part of a global slowdown, the safe-haven argument might dominate in the short term, supporting a bullish stance on the DXY. But if the Fed pivots to aggressive rate cuts and the US underperforms relative to its peers, the bearish case could take over, particularly over the medium to long term as structural weaknesses (like deficits) weigh more heavily.
So, it’s a toss-up without more specifics. If you lean toward the view that stagnation will trigger Fed easing and sap US economic outperformance, you’d be bearish on the DXY. If you think global risk-off sentiment will outweigh that and bolster the dollar’s safe-haven appeal, you’d be bullish. What’s your take on how the Fed and global markets might react? That could tip the scales for your outlook.

Quoting MrFanciful

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{quote} No one really knows. If they did, they wouldn't be risking just 1-2%. If you knew it was going to 1.27, you'd remortgage your house and max out you credit cards on a 1:1000 leverage account. Yesterday I asked Grok whether you should be bullish or bearish on the DXY in a stagflationary environment. The answer is essentially "Meh, could be either" {quote}

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Quoting BeeTogether

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{quote} 127 is very close.. maybe the 12750 area before a correction

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Quoting Pat Chiko

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{quote} CABLE NYO Update scalping position {image}

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Quoting eyefeelsix

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{quote} stop-out! Greenes has won {image}

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Quoting Pat Chiko

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{quote} EU NYO Update scalping{image}

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Quoting Pat Chiko

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{quote} EJ & GJ Updating some scalping position at NYO Coming from both sides BUY/SELL position {image} BUY/SELL position{image}

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Quoting Zebi

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theres a invH+S gentlemen on the hourly dollar chart but I'm sure you all knew that so I feel foolish pointing this out measured target 107 which is where Ill close my GU shorts and go long prolly {image}

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Quoting sharingan9

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Looking for short entry but volatility too high in this hour. A bit difficult to get short

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