NQ m1: 
Stick to the plan!
Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
- #14,567
- Edited 5:30am Feb 24, 2025 5:11am | Edited 5:30am
Here's my two cents fwiw Klausi.
It looks to me like Bitcoin needs to drop a little to confirm the weekly low which could also make the DSS drop to the bottom of the cycle and price to the bottom of the white channel. Weekly DSS is already at the bottom so a small drop down to the lower level of the current price action may be enough to reset sentiment and allow bitcoin to start moving again.
If we do move off from here, the aqua channel will probably need to be redrawn 
It looks to me like Bitcoin needs to drop a little to confirm the weekly low which could also make the DSS drop to the bottom of the cycle and price to the bottom of the white channel. Weekly DSS is already at the bottom so a small drop down to the lower level of the current price action may be enough to reset sentiment and allow bitcoin to start moving again.
If we do move off from here, the aqua channel will probably need to be redrawn
- #14,568
- Feb 24, 2025 5:20am Feb 24, 2025 5:20am
The drop on Friday was a bit of a surprise as I thought we had everything in place ready for a move higher. The next few days will be telling for ES, if we can't break those highs I'll start to get concerned. 
- #14,570
- Edited 9:58am Feb 24, 2025 8:18am | Edited 9:58am
Hi Terry! I see the underlying 128 trend ist still in work (white dotted line). PA just bounced of the outer bounderie of the 128. If it doesnt break the VTL it may go up. In the other case it could first test the red vertical line what represent the 256 outer bounderie ish and a strong support level from the past and than go back up (on my view) : 
Stick to the plan!
- #14,571
- Feb 24, 2025 7:30pm Feb 24, 2025 7:30pm
Hi Terry! I see the underlying 128 trend ist still in work (white dotted line). PA just bounced of the outer bounderie of the 128. If it doesnt break the VTL it may go up. In the other case it could first test the red vertical line what represent the 256 outer bounderie ish and a strong support level from the past and than go back up (on my view) :{image}
imo the best way to estimate where it's likely to form is to go down to the 4hr TF. You can see a clear FP that has already formed on the 4hr TF which can be used as the likely daily FP.
This gives 2 points to draw a white channel line which can then be used to determine the white channel boundaries (VTL) as long as you don't change its angle.
4 hr FP
Daily projections
- #14,574
- Edited 1:16am Feb 25, 2025 12:43am | Edited 1:16am
{quote} Drawing the white line between 2 FPs is more difficult because the latest FP has not formed and the daily TF gives no clue where it'll form. imo the best way to estimate where it's likely to form is to go down to the 4hr TF. You can see a clear FP that has already formed on the 4hr TF which can be used as the likely daily FP. This gives 2 points to draw a white channel line which can then be used to determine the white channel boundaries (VTL) as long as you don't change its angle. {image} 4 hr FP {image} Daily projections
Stick to the plan!
- #14,576
- Feb 25, 2025 2:14am Feb 25, 2025 2:14am
@aptx Here is an example on DAX m1. Most traders would have shorted but we are knowing PA is at 256 support. Now i waited for a VTL break, a "W" aka double bottom or price closing a above the daily open line. In this case it was the close above the DO. Price always searching for compensation aka cma and overshoots it. But thats just my way and im far away from beeing a perfect trader. What ive learned over the years everybody have to find their on view on the markets and that requests 1000`s of hours screentime. Parisboys work (and Terrys) is the real deal, it shows everything one needs. 
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Stick to the plan!
- #14,577
- Feb 25, 2025 3:32am Feb 25, 2025 3:32am
Similar position to where we are now but on the previous major retracement which did cause the cma128 to turn down and PA to bounce off the aqua cma256.
(cma projections drawn from FP to FP)
Note that the break of the cma128 lower boundary projection occurred simultaneously with the break of the white flip line. The white cma128 was broken and turned down.
When price reached the aqua cma256 lower boundary the boundary was respected on both contacts. Note that the aqua flip line was approx $9000 lower and therefore not broken. The line was respected.
Current time.
PA is testing the lower boundary of white cma128 but white flip line is well away. If the above holds true then this line will be respected at this point. If a retest of the lower white boundary occurs again at the end of March it will likely be a different story as the flip line will be in the same location as the lower boundary of the white cma128.
(cma projections drawn from FP to FP)
Note that the break of the cma128 lower boundary projection occurred simultaneously with the break of the white flip line. The white cma128 was broken and turned down.
When price reached the aqua cma256 lower boundary the boundary was respected on both contacts. Note that the aqua flip line was approx $9000 lower and therefore not broken. The line was respected.
Current time.
PA is testing the lower boundary of white cma128 but white flip line is well away. If the above holds true then this line will be respected at this point. If a retest of the lower white boundary occurs again at the end of March it will likely be a different story as the flip line will be in the same location as the lower boundary of the white cma128.
- #14,578
- Edited 10:49pm Feb 25, 2025 3:36am | Edited 10:49pm
Another example here but in this case the white cma128 turned up.
You can see that the white projection was broken simultaneously with the white flip line resulting in the cma128 turning up.
hypothesis:- the cma will only change direction if the projection is broken simultaneously with the flip line, or in other words a channel boundary projection will be respected if the flip line is not there
(projection drawn through FPs)
note: this is a work in progress. I'm sharing it here because we're like minded.
PS. a channel breakout can occur in the same direction as the current channel direction without the flip line being present. The above hypothesis only works on breakouts in the opposite direction to the current channel.
You can see that the white projection was broken simultaneously with the white flip line resulting in the cma128 turning up.
hypothesis:- the cma will only change direction if the projection is broken simultaneously with the flip line, or in other words a channel boundary projection will be respected if the flip line is not there
(projection drawn through FPs)
note: this is a work in progress. I'm sharing it here because we're like minded.
PS. a channel breakout can occur in the same direction as the current channel direction without the flip line being present. The above hypothesis only works on breakouts in the opposite direction to the current channel.
- #14,579
- Feb 25, 2025 2:04pm Feb 25, 2025 2:04pm
Heres my Bitcoin daily chart on MT4. The difference ist the pb-channel indicator by swede. It just shifts back 16 bars on every ma making it easyier to look i find .. Parisboy meant sometime ago its not that much different from the original half-length cma`s and works also. In fact one can trade it without painting the projections every time new. Here i painted the the projection of the lower 128 boundery in yello. It looks like a reversal to the upside is coming in the next time. Every MA above 32 is strongly pointing up. It also looks like it will oscillate down after the upcoming intra 128 wave. For reference i will include the updates TV chart since today was big red candle (but as usual thats only my guess for now): 
Stick to the plan!
- #14,580
- Edited 11:17pm Feb 25, 2025 10:59pm | Edited 11:17pm
Heres my Bitcoin daily chart on MT4. The difference ist the pb-channel indicator by swede. It just shifts back 16 bars on every ma making it easyier to look i find .. Parisboy meant sometime ago its not that much different from the original half-length cma`s and works also. In fact one can trade it without painting the projections every time new. Here i painted the the projection of the lower 128 boundery in yello. It looks like a reversal to the upside is coming in the next time. Every MA above 32 is strongly pointing up. It also looks like it...
If the aqua channel (cma256) was also to break down that couldn't occur until late July/early August. If that occurred I would think that 100K was probably the peak of this 4yr cycle.
Ultra Bullish scenario:- The white channel doesn't break down but PA actually breaks through the top of the channel
Mildly Bullish scenario:- The white channel does break down and price bounces off aqua channel lower boundary between April & July, then goes on to break out of aqua channel upper boundary.
Bearish scenario:- PA breaks white channel lower boundary then tests aqua channel lower boundary late July/early August.
