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cable short for gbpusd? 10 replies

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Quoting 7154Superman
{quote} Flipping a coin + exactly equal stop loss and TP? That's a recipe for continually losing over time, no matter what you do or how small your risk. The only way to make consistent gains is strategic entries (learned from experience) and TP at least 11.12% more pips than SL. Then if you can manage a consistent average win rate of more than 50%, your success is guaranteed.
I guess u weren't listening to me last time so I wont mention this again

with your account size just "bracket" a candle... since you're American you don't even have to use a sl cause the other order that wasn't triggered will be the stoploss...understand?

so make your profit target small like 5 pips and ur sl will be the other side of the bracket order and you wont ever get urself mixed up in a hedge situation bein both long and short in the account ..or having to average down to save your ass like I had to beginning of janruary LOL

it works well on smaller timeframes not so much on hier ones
short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #853,522
  • Quote
  • Edited 9:10pm Feb 8, 2025 6:46pm | Edited 9:10pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Well, let's take this as a starting point, I’d say. So, he begins by flipping a coin, then tries your system with a -90% drawdown. After that, he might enter the actual trading world, and hopefully succeed. That’s all I meant. Just keep the risks really small for now.
I agree about keeping the risk low, like trading demo or like $10 until you learn to consistently get more than 50% win rate.
But my understanding about flipping a coin (I've done it) is that you don't learn from it, so it's a waste of time and opportunities. And exactly equal SL and TP requires 55.6% win rate just to break even. So in that case, flipping a coin is guaranteed to lose money over time, no matter how small the risk.
I wish I started practicing my current system in the beginning of my trading journey over 5 years ago and stuck to it. I would be a multi millionaire right now.
That's what I'm hoping this new guy will do.
That -90% drawdown is something that is likely as a newbie until he learns to consistently get better than 50% win rate.
With a demo, that's ok. Even with $10. Not a problem. Then when he begins to consistently recover his % losses and making new highs, he can invest more money, knowing that his system is sound.
With decent trading experience using my 5% system, -35% drawdown is probably about as far as you will ever go. That's still amateur. At a professional level, no more than like -20% drawdown, if even that.
The key is making strategic entries.
That takes hands-on learning experience to get good at it.
You cannot fail if you never give up.
Quoting Zebi
{quote} I guess u weren't listening to me last time so I wont mention this again with your account size just "bracket" a candle... since you're American you don't even have to use a sl cause the other order that wasn't triggered will be the stoploss...understand? so make your profit target small like 5 pips and ur sl will be the other side of the bracket order and you wont ever get urself mixed up in a hedge situation bein both long and short in the account ..or having to average down to save your ass like I had to beginning of janruary...
Candles in themselves are fiction during dynamic price action.
It's better to view the price action as a wave pattern like the waves of the sea as well as being aware of the general direction of the main flow (trend) so you're not trying to swim upstream.
Once you get the feel of that flow + wave pattern, it's very easy to determine whether or not it's worth the risk of stop loss to try to catch a wave that's big enough to hit your TP. If it doesn't feel right, stay out until everything lines up. Just like surfing. How does a surfer get good at it? By understanding wave patterns and the general flow of the body of water + practicing until he gets it right. That's all we're doing, surfing the sea of Forex.
Also, account sizes have nothing to do with calculated risk like my system requires. $200 vs $200k accounts operate exactly the same with this system. That's why I'm developing this system so I don't have to reduce the risk later on with a larger size trade because of it feeling "scary".
You cannot fail if you never give up.
Quoting 7154Superman
{quote} I agree about keeping the risk low, like trading demo or like $10 until you learn to consistently get more than 50% win rate. But my understanding about flipping a coin (I've done it) is that you don't learn from it, so it's a waste of time and opportunities. And exactly equal SL and TP requires 55.6% win rate just to break even. So in that case, flipping a coin is guaranteed to lose money over time, no matter how small the risk. I wish I started practicing my current system in the beginning of my trading journey over 5 years ago and stuck...
From long ago until now, it's always been about practicing with a demo account, then moving to an intermediate live account, and finally a gaming prop trading account. To get a demo experience that feels like live trading, it’s okay—just treat it as a fun challenge. Buy a prop account for $100, $200, or up to $400, and trade as if you’re handling $25k, $50k, or $100k. Of course, the prop firm only pays if you pass their challenge and get some profit. I think it’s a bit waste of time to start with a $100 live account and hope to turn it into $1M. I don’t lose much if I fail with prop gaming account again and again. I don't want to risk minimum 25k for live account. Nada. There's a model trading that costs peanuts but can deliver explosive rewards—why let such an opportunity go to waste? Try it once for a month or two—it’s no big deal—or even a third of a year (every four months). Lel
And, behold, with every hardship comes ease:
Quoting 7154Superman
{quote} Candles in themselves are fiction during dynamic price action. It's better to view the price action as a wave pattern like the waves of the sea as well as being aware of the general direction of the main flow (trend) so you're not trying to swim upstream. Once you get the feel of that flow + wave pattern, it's very easy to determine whether or not it's worth the risk of stop loss to try to catch a wave that's big enough to hit your TP. If it doesn't feel right, stay out until everything lines up. Just like surfing. How does a surfer get...

good to know you got it all figured out...good luck
short trump and go long the deepstate
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} From long ago until now, it's always been about practicing with a demo account, then moving to an intermediate live account, and finally a gaming prop trading account. To get a demo experience that feels like live trading, it’s okay—just treat it as a fun challenge. Buy a prop account for $100, $200, or up to $400, and trade as if you’re handling $25k, $50k, or $100k. Of course, the prop firm only pays if you pass their challenge and get some profit. I think it’s a bit waste of time to start with a $100 live account and hope to turn it into...
I would not recommend prop account trading to newbies. Most of them are scams. Plus their rules are too restrictive to be able to trade high enough risk to actually gain explosive compounding rates as well as explore your risk appetite to see how you respond to different scenarios. I did try demo accounts. It didn't give me the motivation I get to learn a successful trading system like a $100 live account does.
I make $200+ per day from my taxi/hauling business. So, I can afford to lose $100-200 in order to learn how to trade, then maybe later invest more once my trading system is rock solid with a high win rate.
I, myself, am not interested at all in spending my hard earned money for a trading account that only promises to pay me something if I pass the challenge.
I insist that starting with a small amount of $$ is the best way to learn until your win rate is good enough consistently for you to be confident with investing a larger amount that can easily change your life in a short time.
Besides, growing from $200 to $2 million within 2-5 years is absolutely fantastic and also very possible. I'd like to prove it. Give me time. Only people who were born rich or who have inherited unearned wealth do not appreciate the life changing effect this type of self sustainable, independent growth has on people who have never known wealth.
You cannot fail if you never give up.
Quoting Zebi
{quote} good to know you got it all figured out...good luck
To be honest with you, I already had all that "surfing the waves" figured out 3-4 years ago, but I didn't stick to it because I thought I could find something better than that. It turns out that was the best and most accurate type of trading observation I ever had. At that time, I didn't fully realize how good it was.
Now, after over 5 years, I have tried everything else that seemed to be a good way for me to trade and I have come back to this simple system I was aware of from the beginning, but was too impatient to be content with the process.
It's like the race between the tortoise and the hare. I was the hare and so I lost the race because I couldn't stick the landing, so to speak. Now, I will try the tortoise method. It's guaranteed to win, maybe not overnight, but in time it will succeed, and when it does, it can be scaled up indefinitely. It's the simplest law of physics.
You cannot fail if you never give up.
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} If a comment on a trading forum can trigger you, look inside and figure out how to break the trigger so no one can do this to you.
Just like how you get trigger; don't like criticism and ban people from your threads?

"Forex a Great Hobby, But Not a Great Job"
Texas-2-Step All Time Return: 8.1%
  • #853,529
  • Quote
  • Edited 10:19pm Feb 8, 2025 9:09pm | Edited 10:19pm
Quoting 7154Superman
{quote} I would not recommend prop account trading to newbies. Most of them are scams. Plus their rules are too restrictive to be able to trade high enough risk to actually gain explosive compounding rates as well as explore your risk appetite to see how you respond to different scenarios. I did try demo accounts. It didn't give me the motivation I get to learn a successful trading system like a $100 live account does. I make $200+ per day from my taxi/hauling business. So, I can afford to lose $100-200 in order to learn how to trade, then maybe...
Thats why i told u, gaming prop firm is the 3rd step, if fail. If success after 2nd step (live account), you can apply to real prop firm that hire u, give you salary, bonus, and 1M trading account.

In the real world, I’ve gone from zero—starting with nothing, crawling my way up—to graduating medical school and becoming a doctor. It’s not easy in any country around the world. One of the hardest school. In live trading, I failed to grow my account to $1M, even though I had some small wins; they were inconsistent. That’s just the reality of good psychology—if you succeed, admit it, and if you fail, admit it.

But in truth, the 99% who fail in forex, scattered everywhere year after year, are the prime examples to learn from if you want to avoid failure. It’s not the 1% who succeed, like Jim Simons or Richard Dennis, because they have other aspects you don’t understand. The same goes for some friends in this forum who’ve won big—they might have their own hidden edges, besides hardwork and really good skills; and Luck!

As traders, don't ever mock others when they are down, because they might mock you if you fall and they rise. Up and Down every day, every month and every year.

Cheers
And, behold, with every hardship comes ease:
Quoting 7154Superman
{quote} To be honest with you, I already had all that "surfing the waves" figured out 3-4 years ago, but I didn't stick to it because I thought I could find something better than that. It turns out that was the best and most accurate type of trading observation I ever had. At that time, I didn't fully realize how good it was. Now, after over 5 years, I have tried everything else that seemed to be a good way for me to trade and I have come back to this simple system I was aware of from the beginning, but was too impatient to be content with the process....
good post
Intraday only.
GBP weekend review and anticipation as to what this one may be doing. MM seem to be accumulating LONG heavily. The H4 trend commencing on 23/01 only lasted a relatively short period of time before the MM's allowed price to reaccumulate around what perhaps is our now relevant price of 1.242 ish. Could be H15 / M5 opportunities if trend systems indicate trend commencement above this price. AUD is very similar; EUR needs to get itself sorted and is not as clear. Notwithstanding sessional opportunities this coming week the MM seem to be accumulating LONG heavily on the slower TF giving energy under current prices. Dips seem only for the purpose of grabbing more inventory to sell at higher prices in the coming weeks / months.

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buying this pair would be a difficult choice.
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  • #853,533
  • Quote
  • Edited 4:26am Feb 9, 2025 4:07am | Edited 4:26am
Hi All,

Here's my H4, I'm thinking a break higher first, then lower. IF the trend line breaks to the downside, I'll be holding to the 1.22300 zone. IF price continues to find trend line support, I'll trade accordingly.

Good Luck
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I think he will come back. after fvg goes up
How do you start a thread? will start one Monday giving trading signals which are pinpointed. Not vague nonsense, it will be exact.
  • #853,536
  • Quote
  • Edited 9:55am Feb 9, 2025 9:40am | Edited 9:55am
Quoting MoneyPrinte
{quote} This looks really good! Perhaps adding a bullish/bearish sentiment indicator in the table could make it even easier to understand, especially for those of us who aren't economists. Just a suggestion
I’m not an economist either, but I often deal with all the indicators they use and their purposes. Most of them are quite confusing. So this is my interpretation outside their domain: If the M2 calculation result of a currency shows inflation, then it weakens; if deflation, then it strengthens. In this case, GBP is strengthening and USD is expected to weaken, so the last candle or bar from last week looked like that. Perhaps waiting for the data to be released. A brief review here: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post15143932 So still this time GBP Bullish.

In Dec and Jan, USA is having fun, partying, while the UK seems to be saving, resting, and worshiping in Jan and Feb. Lel
And, behold, with every hardship comes ease:
GBPUSD price action on the daily time frame is presently in a bearish mode. On Wednesday, bulls made a futile attempt to retest a broken rising channel trendline; but bears resisted the challenge. Recent technical prints favour further southward market engineering. The dominant technical structure is bearish.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} I’m not an economist either, but I often deal with all the indicators they use and their purposes. Most of them are quite confusing. So this is my interpretation outside their domain: If the M2 calculation result of a currency shows inflation, then it weakens; if deflation, then it strengthens. In this case, GBP is strengthening and USD is expected to weaken, so the last candle or bar from last week looked like that. Perhaps waiting for the data to be released. A brief review here: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post15143932...
I appreciate your perspective! Economic indicators can definitely be complex, and M2 is an interesting one to interpret in the context of inflation and currency strength. Your reasoning makes sense—higher M2 growth often aligns with inflationary pressures, which can weaken a currency, while lower growth or contraction can signal deflation, potentially strengthening it.
That said, I’m not a contrarian—I just want to share my outlook based on data-driven seasonal trends. Looking at historical performance across 5 different periods, GBP has consistently closed bearish at the end of the month FEBRUARY. Also, January’s closing as a red candle suggests sellers were strong, and with the first week of February closing inside January’s range, it indicates that sellers are still in control.
Even though the COT report shows bullish movement for commercial traders, my indicators suggest that GBP might be in an accumulation phase, potentially building liquidity for a bigger sell-off before preparing for an April rally, based on historical trends. Of course, this is just my bias, but it’s something I’m considering.
Appreciate the discussion and your insights!"*..i share below some screenshot for Seasonal trends,line forecast and COT for visualization.
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Dancing with Ghosts: Whispers of the VoidPool
It looks like another big gap down due to more Trump tariff breaking news.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/13...m#post15144089
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You cannot fail if you never give up.
So my plan for now is to try to buy dips on EUR/USD with my +5% TP (+10.4 pips) and -4.761% SL (-9.9 pips) system.
But caution is advised because the bottom line of the flag hasn't been reached yet.
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You cannot fail if you never give up.
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