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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #853,001
  • Feb 5, 2025 9:21am Feb 5, 2025 9:21am
Quoting Marbas
{quote} STAGFLATION
Stagflation is a period of high inflation, low economic growth, and high unemployment. The US economy is currently experiencing low unemployment and economic growth, but inflation is still above the Fed's target.
FED is a 24/7 machine that never runs out of the money
  • #853,002
  • Feb 5, 2025 9:21am Feb 5, 2025 9:21am
Meanwhile on GJ….

Patience is a virtue and in this case so is a stainless steel nuts..
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Insane in the Brain..
  • #853,003
  • Feb 5, 2025 9:22am Feb 5, 2025 9:22am
Took short
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yes yes yes
  • #853,004
  • Feb 5, 2025 9:24am Feb 5, 2025 9:24am
Quoting Macrofx1
{quote} Stagflation is a period of high inflation, low economic growth, and high unemployment. The US economy is currently experiencing low unemployment and economic growth, but inflation is still above the Fed's target.
The high unemployment piece is in the pipeline with Donald's government layoffs also in the pipeline.
  • #853,005
  • Feb 5, 2025 9:29am Feb 5, 2025 9:29am
Quoting BeeTogether
Meanwhile on GJ…. Patience is a virtue and in this case so is a stainless steel nuts.. {image}
Well done, folks on here want massive profits and they want them now, it's hard and painful the only cure is patience and of course...
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  • #853,006
  • Feb 5, 2025 9:32am Feb 5, 2025 9:32am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Well done, folks on here what massive profits and they want them now, it's hard and painful the only cure is patience and of course...{image}
Cheers now to decide to take the hit or wait for a move up.. as BoE is already priced in I have a feeling we may go up soon. Maybe not to my short zone of 195 but circa 193. Not sure why the pair is tanking so much considering how the GBP is doing against USD. Still not worked this pair out
Insane in the Brain..
  • #853,007
  • Feb 5, 2025 9:33am Feb 5, 2025 9:33am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} The high unemployment piece is in the pipeline with Donald's government layoffs also in the pipeline.
US unemployment very low, I think USA is doing very well.
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FED is a 24/7 machine that never runs out of the money
  • #853,008
  • Feb 5, 2025 9:36am Feb 5, 2025 9:36am
Quoting BeeTogether
{quote} Cheers now to decide to take the hit or wait for a move up.. as BoE is already priced in I have a feeling we may go up soon. Maybe not to my short zone of 195 but circa 193. Not sure why the pair is tanking so much considering how the GBP is doing against USD. Still not worked this pair out
I tried to work it out, but now say fuck it and toss a coin, works just as good...
  • #853,009
  • Feb 5, 2025 9:36am Feb 5, 2025 9:36am
Quoting teprewitt23
Good Morning NY/London Traders Hope everyone survived the liquidity sweep GU price action is showing the characteristics of a significant change in sentiment. Adding GTC limit buy order @ 1.2457, holding long positions from 1.2165, 1.2245, 1.2377. Food for thought, appears that possible sentiment shift may have started 1-13-25, the day CME futures rolled over. Next rollover date, i believe, is 2-14-25 . daily bars, small positions, ladder into trends. "the catalyst is inconsequential" "old...
Maybe you are referring to options, this Friday monthly expiration.(others doesn't matter, bc of very low OI)
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Futures contract expires 17.03 (take every quarter)
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Air force
  • #853,010
  • Feb 5, 2025 9:46am Feb 5, 2025 9:46am
This is why tariffs will not happen at least not for Canada and Mexico. That was just to bring everyone to the table to negotiate. Do I need to state the obvious what is going to happen with GBPUSD on longer term.
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FED is a 24/7 machine that never runs out of the money
  • #853,011
  • Feb 5, 2025 9:51am Feb 5, 2025 9:51am
Quoting Macrofx1
This is why tariffs will not happen at least not for Canada and Mexico. That was just to bring everyone to the table to negotiate. {image}
Negotiate what?
This was an edict by Donald!
He fabricated a fentanyl crisis where there is more of the drug going to Canada from the US than from Canada to the US!
Canada is a net recipient of illegal guns that the US doesn't give s--t about.
He still says the solution is for Canada to become a state.
The man is out of control!
I don't know which comes first, either he gets impeached or unites the world against the US!
  • #853,012
  • Feb 5, 2025 10:02am Feb 5, 2025 10:02am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Negotiate what? This was an edict by Donald! He fabricated a fentanyl crisis where there is more of the drug going to Canada from the US than from Canada to the US! Canada is a net recipient of illegal guns that the US doesn't give s--t about. He still says the solution is for Canada to become a state. The man is out of control! I don't know which comes first, either he gets impeached or unites the world against the US!
Generally Wednesdays are a bad day for me (apart from FTSE DIVI) thanks again Terry aka T721.., may be because of the way I trade anyone else find this, not just on a Wednesday but any day, have name it " Wank Wednesday"...
  • #853,013
  • Edited 10:28am Feb 5, 2025 10:09am | Edited 10:28am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Maybe you are referring to options, this Friday monthly expiration.(others doesn't matter, bc of very low OI) {image} Futures contract expires 17.03 (take every quarter){image}
BPG25 February Futures Contract settles/last day to trade 2-14-25 the February contracts have traded for one calendar year. the upcoming March contracts have traded for Five years.......i expect significate positioning. Information is taken directly from cmegroup.com, GBP futures contracts expire every month.
"The Rich Never Pay Retail"
  • #853,014
  • Feb 5, 2025 10:12am Feb 5, 2025 10:12am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Negotiate what? This was an edict by Donald! He fabricated a fentanyl crisis where there is more of the drug going to Canada from the US than from Canada to the US! Canada is a net recipient of illegal guns that the US doesn't give s--t about. He still says the solution is for Canada to become a state. The man is out of control! I don't know which comes first, either he gets impeached or unites the world against the US!
What if we become a 51st state, what are you going to do about it, that is a "if", not saying is going to happen. Are you going to do something about it?
FED is a 24/7 machine that never runs out of the money
  • #853,015
  • Feb 5, 2025 10:13am Feb 5, 2025 10:13am
Quoting Macrofx1
{quote} GDP does tell you how economy is doing. It is lagging but important. It is one of the important economic indicators, and very useful into making a decision in trading.
Yes, in the 1940s, where your economic literature comes from, deficits matter here in the real world of 2025.
The UK has a 5% deficit, and the US has a 9% deficit.
If Musk cuts government spending on people digging holes and other people filling them up, GDP will fall.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #853,016
  • Feb 5, 2025 10:16am Feb 5, 2025 10:16am
Quoting Bones
{quote} Yes, in the 1940s, where your economic literature comes from, deficits matter here in the real world of 2025. The UK has a 5% deficit, and the US has a 9% deficit. If Musk cuts government spending on people digging holes and other people filling them up, GDP will fall. {image}
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  • #853,017
  • Feb 5, 2025 10:30am Feb 5, 2025 10:30am
Quoting Bones
{quote} Yes, in the 1940s, where your economic literature comes from, deficits matter here in the real world of 2025. The UK has a 5% deficit, and the US has a 9% deficit. If Musk cuts government spending on people digging holes and other people filling them up, GDP will fall. {image}
UK investment is still below the pre-Brexit peak and this undermines long-term growth. The US by contrast has seen a boom in private.
UK investment, particularly business investment, remains below its pre-Brexit peak, with the uncertainty surrounding Brexit cited as a key factor contributing to this stagnation; even though the UK has seen some recent growth in foreign direct investment, it still falls short of pre-Brexit levels.

The United States has a larger economy than the United Kingdom, with higher GDP growth and per capita income. The US is the world's largest economy by nominal GDP, while the UK has a more globalized economy.

GDP:

  1. The US has the world's largest economy by nominal GDP.
  2. In Q3 2024, the US GDP grew by 0.8%, while the UK GDP was flat.
  3. The US had the highest GDP growth among G7 economies in recent years.

GDP per capita:

  1. The US has a higher GDP per capita than the UK.
  2. The US has the world's sixth highest nominal GDP per capita.

Economic growth:

  1. The US economy has experienced relatively steady growth since the end of World War II.
  2. The US economy has benefited from government intervention, such as the infrastructure bill, the Inflation Reduction Act, and domestic chip manufacturing.

Global trade:

  1. The UK was the fifth-largest exporter and fourth-largest importer in the world in 2022.
  2. The US dollar is the world's reserve currency and is used in the majority of international transactions.

The United States has the world's largest economy. The US has held this position since 1871, when it surpassed the United Kingdom.
Factors contributing to the US economy

  1. Large consumer market: The US has a large consumer market.
  2. Favorable business conditions: The US has favorable business conditions.
  3. Diverse population: The US has a diverse population.
  4. Strong currency: The US dollar is one of the world's strongest currencies.
  5. Major market cap stocks: The US is home to some of the world's largest market cap stocks.


Now that we understand that America is #1 economically, we can go back to sharing our trading analysis. You have a good day.

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FED is a 24/7 machine that never runs out of the money
  • #853,018
  • Feb 5, 2025 10:36am Feb 5, 2025 10:36am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} GJ Long/Short set up {image} P/S Not signal, just trying some luck
GJ

take a loss.
This is not a good set up, as price is in corrective wave 4.

Messy PA, once two rejection appear on top candle ,time to take loss
Walk away and now re entry hoping to recover some losses.
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Lesson learned:
No need to trade corrective waves EW4—just go outside and touch some grass.( Or better smoke some)
When things don’t go as planned, walk away quickly.
Might get a few bruises, but at least won’t lose your shirt.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #853,019
  • Feb 5, 2025 10:37am Feb 5, 2025 10:37am
Quoting teprewitt23
{quote} BPG25 February Futures Contract settles/last day to trade 2-14-25 the February contracts have traded for one calendar year. the upcoming March contracts have traded for Five years.......i expect significate positioning. Information is taken directly from cmegroup.com
February can't be traded for a year, those contracts live for 3 months. I know it's written on CME, but open TV chart
(edit:
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Feb/Apr/May/.. are serial contracts, they are not liquid, nothing happening there. For 3 months BG25 volume is ~11k contracts, which is just typical London open on Quarterly ones
On the screen you can see 900 contracts Open Interest
Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec - these ones matters
Air force
  • #853,020
  • Feb 5, 2025 10:39am Feb 5, 2025 10:39am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} GJ take a loss. This is not a good set up, as price is in corrective wave 4. Messy PA, once two rejection appear on top candle ,time to take loss Walk away and now re entry hoping to recover some losses.{image} Lesson learned: No need to trade corrective waves EW4—just go outside and touch some grass.( Or better smoke some) When things don’t go as planned, walk away quickly. Might get a few bruises, but at least won’t lose your shirt.
Yeah I'm down a grand on the day EU and GU, couple hundred up on the US30...win some lose some, folks you want to get use to it, it happens...
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