Statistical Probability Trading With Price Action

EurAud WAR

The Pink line is the WAR for 2007 and blue line is the weekly range of motion (WRM) for the weeks of 2007.

The EurAud has bounced last weeks 23.6 fib (1.5694) and this week to date weekly fib of 50 (1.5691). A three pip confluence between the two fibs. Aud positive news coming out. The (DAR) for 2007 is 107 and the (WAR) is 226 pips. Currently it has had a weekly range of 158 pips. Looking at the previous charts showing the range of motion (RM) for the weekly and daily it could go for a good break out at news time.

Pushing to break yesterday's support which is today's resistance. WAR of 226 pips from the high on Monday of 1.5752 would be a low 1.5526.

Updated weekly retracement probabilities for UsdJpy. The 207 WAR for UsdJpy is 189 pips it currently has ranged 181 pips for the week with the high of 121.61 and a current low 119.80. Its DAR is 83 pips and for the day it has already moved 52 pips. Last week its range of motion was 160 pips which is below the WAR so this week looking to see the weekly range of motion extend beyond 189 pips. Today probably during the london session then looking to trade a retracement based on the probabilities posted with the chart.

WAR for UsdJpy for the year. The pink line is the 2007 WAR of 201 pips the blue line shows the weekly RM for weeks of the year. The last point is the current week.

The 4hr range of motion for the EurAud during the london session is 57 pips.

With my mt4 I am just finishing a 4hr candle from 10pm to 2am eastern. The average range for that candle for the gbpjpy is 60 pips. The next candle from 2am to 6am eastern US the average range is 89 pips. This 10pm candle had a range of 131 pips. Since the begining of the year gbpjpy has moved 100 or more pips 21 times on the 10pm candle. When that happens the gbpjpy 2am candle has only moved more then the 10pm candle 5 times. 2am candle on the average moves about 75% of the 10pm candle. So 75% of 131 pips is still about 98 pips.

UsdJpy retraced to within the 10 pip tolerance of the weekly 50 fib as it stands now. Did not take a trade there because its range of motion (RM) for the week so far is 182 pips. Its WAR (weekly average range) for 2007 is 201 pips updated. Figured the way the currencies were moving last night it would break further beyond its WAR.

The 20 week (WAR) weekly average range and the (DAR) daily average range or within a 3 pip confluence.

The 20 week (WAR) for the GbpJpy has been hit 15 out of the previous 29 trading weeks for a 52% probability. Its current weekly range of motion (WRM) has been 366 pips it which it has hit 19/29 trading weeks for a 66% statisitcal probability.

GbpJpy has already reached its 70% statisitcal probablity DAR and WAR.

This weekly chart showing the range of motion(RM) includes the current week. The (RM) could change if it breaks 246.28 another 60 pips. The pink line is the 20 week (WAR). There is 44 pip differences between the yearly (WAR) of 448 and 20 week (WAR) of 404 pips. If the RM does not increase next week the 20 week (WAR) will be 385 pips. Looking at the RM of late in the below chart the weekly ranges are more around the 400 pips.

Daily Retracement Probabilities are in the yellow
Daily Range of Motion Averages are in the green
Weekly Range of Motion Averages are in the white.
Range of motions start at the low of an uptrend and the high of down trend. The placement of the weekly and daily range of motions are in anticipation on an uptrend that my play out or not. Daily fib retracements are based on the previous day high and low which are established. These fib levels are based on a 264 pip movement, so more in likely the upper fibs of 50.0 and 61.8 will not be retraced to. As you can see those fib levels are well above 100 pip move which has a 51% probability of being reached. The daily and weekly range of motions are based on the low 2.0241. Which probably will drop bringing the top side of the weekly and daily range of motions down. These are just parameters to help establish entry and exits for the trading strategies a person uses. Once the week starts and gets going the start and stop of the daily and weekly parameters will change.

After looking at the post I am adding that the yellow fibs with arrows pointing to them are
daily fibs and the probabilities show the likeliness it will retrace to these levels within today's trading day. Keeping in mind it may be slow today after Friday's gang buster. Not a prediction just a thought

Weekly fib retracements with daily and weekly probabilities. See previous post for explanation of range of motion probabilities. The weekly fibs are probabilites of it retracing to these levels this coming week.

Edited previous two posts for more clarity.

Possible scenario for the week based on weekly retracement probabilities, (DAR) daily average range and WAR weekly average range. The 118.27 is based on previous March resistance and April support of 2007 and the difference between the high and lows of the opening for the week. See posts 422 and 423 for clearer charts. As you know all can change with in hours of this post.

This is same chart as on post 421. It seems to be more clear when I post it this way.

This goes with post 421 also for clarity

EurJpy at previous point of resistance and support