Cable Update (GBPUSD)

yeah ! Unfortunately I’m stuck in a trade with GJ at the moment so looking for near term upward swing before BoE on Thursday where there should be a few hundred pound to be made

...gap is circa 63pips.

4hr with 10/20/40 ema crosses graphic below

Where are your targets?

target gap close

and in a flash the yen pairs taken a plunge.. recovery dead and buried for the time being

...someone's not keen on the gap closing lol!

1hr below

Already short @ 1.2313 stop 1.2333

...price @2249 current dly/wkly/mthy lo gave back over 61.8% of the recent 2100 (last mth's lo/current yrly lo) - 2524 (last wk's hi) move. Today so far with gap down, a 1st downside b/o of last wk's 2386 lo remains true so far, but no b/o's of asian hi or lo yet which are presently the current dly hi and lo.
Current yrly hi and lo are 2575 and 2100 respectively. The current 30day adr hi would be 2357 so doesn't fill the gap - need a > 30day adr day to do that today.

The BOJ is very poor at follow-through, has been for many years. Despite copping criticism over the years, they've enjoyed the import/export benefits of a weak Yen, I'll believe a price hike when I see it.

...1st fib cluster to the upside is @/around top of gap/last wk's lo - ie it runs 2386-89 (3.) Next is another 3 fib cluster 2418-23, then another 2439-43 with Dly R1 @/around 2444.

...on a global macro scale - the question is; Are these U.s/Trump tariffs on Canada/China in particular, (& Mexico,) a game changer re this market and others, with more promised to come, (perhaps on Eu/UK,) ? Whatever the answer to that is, last wk's 2524 hi must seem a long way off right now re longer-term bulls' positions.

Even if they do something, like a hike, they do it in such a way, that their message is very well priced in way before they do it, so that it doesnot disturbed global liquidity.

BOJ cannt afford to deliver surprise move, else it will disrupt the entire financial market.

Current resistance areas for GJ 19080 keeps bouncing off it. The tariff news has tanked a lot of pairs especially the direct impact currencies which in turn taking others down. Proper dominoes we could see the secondary currencies claw back a bit though. Will be an interesting week

Nicely put headland sir.
I was also ponder about this monthly setup, where chances are high that monthly candle to be big green candle and not only wick candle, because failed to break swing high/low, usually sharp counter move unfolds and quick.

monthly



Quick H4 setup Scalping to swing

If price actually want to break downward External Structure 1.257, a gap inversion must be in place, otherwise, possibility for future price still skewed to down.

Fundamental view:
The interesting factor about GBP was more Weak GDP with sticky inflation, weakening the currency. With falling CPI, still struggling GDP, the burden of higher rate for longer seems to reduce and allow the economy to breath, which may be bullish for pound. (this is my fundamental view).

The balancing view, remains uncertain around trump tariffs. Cause if EU is hit, EU as UK largest trading partner, also likely to feel the pain.


P/S:For the lazy one who dont like to study and taught themselves and only hungry for signal, this post or none of my post is a trade signal. I like to discuss different swing scenario, so when price go against my initial scenario, i dont have it over my head, that i cannot be wrong, and hold 1000pip drawdown, cause for me it the setup gonna work, then it will work within 20-30pip SL.

Until We get a GAP inversion, a Gap to fill is first. PA at the GAP or in the GAP, light the way ahead.

...3rd x 30min attempt to get past the current dly hi (just into that gap) rebuffed by sellers again. There is bearish 30min hidden div @ that 1st attempt hi, (just below the current dly hi,) but it is not likely to stay a valid pattern on any move higher should it fail. 1hr of the same is potentially developing and if it does will probably fully develop in the gap if it does, and if the gap is tested, and may stay good whilst price is below 2410, (depending on shape of the osc's.)

Change in the fib clusters to the upside, (ie I have taken one plotted fib away and added a different one that seems more relevant, [subjective choice!]) I now have 2329-35 (3,) 2386-89 (3,) 2418-22 (3,) and 2439-44 is a 2 x fibs and Dly R1 cluster.

1hr below

Trump has imposed 25% tariffs on the import of all Python libraries, with an extra 10% on NumPy
That's true..

Pound-dollar BUY signal has appeared

Waiting for burst up !