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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #21,701
  • Jul 27, 2007 2:49pm Jul 27, 2007 2:49pm
Not a good sign for equities.

The DOW is selling off into the weeks end close.
  • #21,702
  • Jul 27, 2007 2:51pm Jul 27, 2007 2:51pm
WHOA...-162 and counting....

Could that mean more unwinding on Sun/Mon at the Asian session????
  • #21,703
  • Jul 27, 2007 2:52pm Jul 27, 2007 2:52pm
Quoting baron193
Support levels to watch are: 2.0135, 1.9840
I'm on the fib levels, specially now that Cable respected the 38% at the pip. This fib is being traded, as it seems.

Plan is to TP half of left position at 50%, leave the rest for the joyride. But as this corrective move was so fast, I don't rule out a test of the 61% fib, which matches with a "just-in-case" test of 2.0000 area. Just to make sure 1.9 is history

On test of 0400 (23% fib) I'm adding new short trades.
Attached Image
  • #21,704
  • Jul 27, 2007 3:02pm Jul 27, 2007 3:02pm
We could be testing that 2.0000 next week.

But I'm exactly with you on how FAST this thing moved...

Looks just like the scene from March. And after that drop which took about 4-5 trading days we had a nice 900+ pip run up.

Make you wonder??????
  • #21,705
  • Jul 27, 2007 3:06pm Jul 27, 2007 3:06pm
Quoting cesarnc
But as this corrective move was so fast, I don't rule out a test of the 61% fib, which matches with a "just-in-case" test of 2.0000 area. Just to make sure 1.9 is history

The we would see free444 again......we are coming to get ya kid!!!!!
  • #21,706
  • Jul 27, 2007 3:15pm Jul 27, 2007 3:15pm
Quoting Turtle
The we would see free444 again......we are coming to get ya kid!!!!!
http://www.yugiohfr.com/images/smileys/smiley27.gif
Attached Image
  • #21,707
  • Edited 4:04pm Jul 27, 2007 4:02pm | Edited 4:04pm
Don't you guys keep saying that prices fall faster than they rise? Or did I just dream that?

Anyway, I'm a noob to seeing trading signals, but I could see this coming looking at the weekly chart, which has travelled in a nice "W" pattern over the last several cycles. So, I placed a short order about a week ago, to be triggered at 2.0485. It got me 206 pips today, my best demo trade so far. But, if I stay with the weekly chart, I prob should have kept the trade open through the weekend.....I was just too excited and it being the end of the week I closed it off.

I think we'll see 2.000 with no problem in the next two weeks if not sooner.
Disregard all prognostications.
  • #21,708
  • Jul 27, 2007 7:31pm Jul 27, 2007 7:31pm
what a week, hope next week is as wild. Regrets, I had a few, but then again, too few to mention. LOL, Could have made a bundle more if I had pulled the trigger and shorted the S&P500 on Wednesday, as I almost did, like 5k, but I am happy nonetheless
  • #21,709
  • Jul 27, 2007 8:00pm Jul 27, 2007 8:00pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by maestr2 http://forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
i was hoping you would lend your view of the current dollar strength. In light of negative housing numbers coming out the usd is rallying. Is it the invisible hand just saving face or is it the big money selling? How do you gauge something like this. When the price isnt following the fundamentals? Just wanted to get your take



Quoting wwwin
Yes, and yesterday too, bad US numbers and US up, so I think probably the market is trading based on tomorrow's number. US GDP might lend more dollar support. Also, the pound might have gotten up too fast and got overextended, and the last numbers coming out of UK have been not so good for GBP. It's a battle thought, the pound always fights hard at turning points.
Yes, Maestro, u and I knew it all along LOL, even though we got crucified for daring to type "dollar strenght" yesterday afternoon, LOL, they don't call you maestro for nothing.
  • #21,710
  • Jul 27, 2007 11:40pm Jul 27, 2007 11:40pm
Quoting cesarnc
http://www.yugiohfr.com/images/smileys/smiley27.gif



Yo....where did you get the picture from??????
  • #21,711
  • Jul 28, 2007 11:30am Jul 28, 2007 11:30am
Quoting Turtle


Yo....where did you get the picture from??????
Google Images

http://www.noheat.com/images/DREVIL.jpg
  • #21,712
  • Edited 12:40pm Jul 28, 2007 12:24pm | Edited 12:40pm
Which short do you think has a better risk/reward for next week? GBP/JPY or GBP/USD? I am hungry for more blood.
I hear there was some BoJ intervention to not let the Yen go higher than 118 US. So if it breaks that, would that be much like the carry traders previousy out gunning the NZ Central Bank on the run up, but now unwinding too fast not much to the delight of the BoJ? I would think that the unwinding would carry more force and be more devastating, after all, "reasonable panic has set in" to quote the phrase of an analyst. Is "reasonable panic" an oxymoron?
  • #21,713
  • Edited 1:31pm Jul 28, 2007 12:53pm | Edited 1:31pm
Quoting maestr2
i was hoping you would lend your view of the current dollar strength. In light of negative housing numbers coming out the usd is rallying. Is it the invisible hand just saving face or is it the big money selling? How do you gauge something like this. When the price isnt following the fundamentals? Just wanted to get your take
The answer is because now that the global liquidation has deepened, investors are steered back into the US dollar. Many US investors have exposure abroad and when they cut their risky trades, they are also repatriating their funds back into US dollars.
Meanwhile there have been reports that model and momentum funds are aggressively selling the Aussie which means that they are no longer holding out the hope for a recovery in the high yielders and are instead either getting stopped out or initiating fresh short positions.

Although house price growth continues to soften in the UK, the UK's economy still remains healthy and the BoE could raise rates to 6 percent by the end of the year. The global markets just need to stabilize before these factors come into play once again.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING, the pound may have some support vs. US at around 2.0100. If broken, next support is at the rising bottom's trendline, as seen in the WEEKLY CHART below. If the rising bottom trendline is decisively broken on the weekly, then folks load your guns heavily, then the long term uptrend would reseverse.
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  • #21,714
  • Jul 28, 2007 2:30pm Jul 28, 2007 2:30pm
Quoting wwwin
Which short do you think has a better risk/reward for next week? GBP/JPY or GBP/USD? I am hungry for more blood.
At these levels, none of them. When Cable goes to the weekend at the week's top or bottom, it frequently recovers a little on Monday. As I'm still holding shorts with 100+ and 200+ pips, I'm leaving them for the ride. But I'll add new lots only above the current levels. Lack of important data on Monday adds to the scenario

I'm not comfortable with adding more lots at or below the current level, unless via data release.
  • #21,715
  • Jul 28, 2007 2:38pm Jul 28, 2007 2:38pm
I am flat right now, then you would add to short if friday's move is retraced let's say 50% or 33%?
  • #21,716
  • Jul 28, 2007 4:31pm Jul 28, 2007 4:31pm
Quoting wwwin
I am flat right now, then you would add to short if friday's move is retraced let's say 50% or 33%?
Most likely. But as a fellow trader here (not that frequent anymore, though) use to say: "If my mother was a guy, she would be my father"...
  • #21,717
  • Jul 28, 2007 6:32pm Jul 28, 2007 6:32pm
Quoting wwwin
The answer is because now that the global liquidation has deepened, investors are steered back into the US dollar. Many US investors have exposure abroad and when they cut their risky trades, they are also repatriating their funds back into US dollars.
Meanwhile there have been reports that model and momentum funds are aggressively selling the Aussie which means that they are no longer holding out the hope for a recovery in the high yielders and are instead either getting stopped out or initiating fresh short positions.

Although house price growth continues to soften in the UK, the UK's economy still remains healthy and the BoE could raise rates to 6 percent by the end of the year. The global markets just need to stabilize before these factors come into play once again.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING, the pound may have some support vs. US at around 2.0100. If broken, next support is at the rising bottom's trendline, as seen in the WEEKLY CHART below. If the rising bottom trendline is decisively broken on the weekly, then folks load your guns heavily, then the long term uptrend would reseverse.

Thanks for the clear and concise explanation. Makes much more sense to me now.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #21,718
  • Jul 28, 2007 6:37pm Jul 28, 2007 6:37pm
Quoting wwwin
I am flat right now, then you would add to short if friday's move is retraced let's say 50% or 33%?
I definitely would, but only with price movements indicating the beginning of another bear run. Have to agree with cesar that now adding shorts is dangerous business since this was a very volatile move down on both pairs and the faster the move in one direction the faster the (partial) retracement, which can come any time at these levels. I will buy the retracement and sell the downturn, can't wait for Monday.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #21,719
  • Edited 8:05pm Jul 28, 2007 7:27pm | Edited 8:05pm
Yep, that is the reason that I am flat. I have decided, however, that GBP/JPY has a lot more downside right now than GBP/USD. Last 3 days the $$ has gone up against every currency except the Yen. So right now the Yen is the dog and the dollar is just it's tail being wagged. If the Yen weakens again, the $$ should weaken against the world except the Yen. If however, the Yen continues to strengthen, then the Pounds decline vs the Yen should be steeper then the Pounds decline vs. the dolar. In addition, converting the JPY profits to a weaker dollar would be an added bonus.
  • #21,720
  • Jul 28, 2007 11:05pm Jul 28, 2007 11:05pm
WOW...what a week we just had...phew, my brain was exhausted.....:surprised

I know most traders (me included) were wondering since Friday's close....WHOA, if that happen the last 3 days what do we have in store for Sun/Mon opening?????

Pound...UP OR DOWN????????

Makes you wonder??????
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