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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #852,201
  • Jan 31, 2025 2:44am Jan 31, 2025 2:44am
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  • #852,202
  • Jan 31, 2025 2:49am Jan 31, 2025 2:49am
...the probable 1hr/2hr current range extremes are the shaded grey areas with 1 x false 1st upside b/o that came back in the range.

1hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #852,203
  • Jan 31, 2025 2:51am Jan 31, 2025 2:51am
As expected GJ below 192 after not being able to break above 19240. Could be a ranging session until NYO
Insane in the Brain..
  • #852,204
  • Jan 31, 2025 2:52am Jan 31, 2025 2:52am
Quoting ThaoAnh
{quote} {image}
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  • #852,205
  • Jan 31, 2025 2:55am Jan 31, 2025 2:55am
Quoting Mitiblotch
Short 2432. TP 2300. Don't follow. Risky. Today is Friday and price tends to go the direction Asia set, which is buy. However, I am going against it. {image}
This week so far has only produced 130 pips range which is lowest of recent weekly ranges seen. The expected weekly range is 200+ pips, which means this week may break 1.2522 by additional 70 pips to 1.2590 or break 1.2390 by additional 70 pips to 1.2320 which is where your target is.

Last week Friday produced a range of 145 pips... Which means we may easily see 1.2320 today but will be extremely hard to see 1.2590 today. Last case scenario may be that this week will just settle for the current 130 pips range.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #852,206
  • Edited 3:35am Jan 31, 2025 3:09am | Edited 3:35am
Well done! Waiting 2393 test and breaks! And eurusd 0350
Targets go much down though just over 2376 and 0343 , say 10 pips over !
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #852,207
  • Jan 31, 2025 3:18am Jan 31, 2025 3:18am
...2nd downside b/o of y/day lo (after asian lo) now, and 1st downside b/o of asian lo. Current wkly lo (Weds lo) which is also the 1hr/2hr range bottom extr maybe under threat? 1st cluster of pot supp factors to downside is 2384-76, which is 4 x fibs and as yet untested Wkly pivot, then 2348-40 is 3 x fibs.

1hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #852,208
  • Jan 31, 2025 3:34am Jan 31, 2025 3:34am
Quoting trumps
{quote} I'm thinking London UP NY Down.... {image}
I smell a rat, marker not met before the drop
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Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #852,209
  • Jan 31, 2025 3:50am Jan 31, 2025 3:50am
...demand came in @ the 2400 round number - current dly lo. I had no pot supp/sbr marked there of any kind on 30min +. Sell stops and buy limits there maybe under y/day lo and asian lo? Anyways, that's the way it goes sometimes. Still in the 1hr/2hr range and back above y/day's lo and today's asian lo, but above current wkly lo, presently.

1hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #852,210
  • Jan 31, 2025 4:07am Jan 31, 2025 4:07am
...last day of week and month - so unless the current mthly lo (2100) or current mthly hi (2575) breaks, the mth will close @ 98% of it's 6mth amr. Unlikely for either I would say - in terms of proximity to current price, and for the same reason the hi is currently more likely of the two, in this unlikely scenario. Only 54% of 13wk awr traveled so far this week, so could be a < 13wk awr week @ the close?

All day to go yet, but mthly candle looking interesting.

mthly below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #852,211
  • Jan 31, 2025 4:09am Jan 31, 2025 4:09am
Switched to long at eu for 80 pips
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yes yes yes
  • #852,212
  • Jan 31, 2025 4:09am Jan 31, 2025 4:09am
Short 1.2422
  • #852,213
  • Jan 31, 2025 4:10am Jan 31, 2025 4:10am
Quoting Abeylyn
{quote} You nailed it bro. There is always a predetermined decision to move price from one direction to another specific direction irrespective of all odds. Identifying the primary direction is the key. Have a nice day trading.
Well said, often the predetermined decision to push price into one direction is related to market structure.
This is why we often saw currency rose on dovish Central banks members speech, or economic figure missed the expected figure, which 'should' make the currency falls.
That means something bigger out there is happening, and we are uninformed of it.


But the real meaning of trading was never about a trade or more precisely One trade, since no matter what the trader's edge is, nothing eliminate the risk or Probability outcome for 1 trade= 50%.
It is the same as One of the greatest Gay shoe Designer said
Quoting Waveskierrob
Any direction, any price, any time... ..
To eliminate the risk completely, is to eliminate return.


As a trader, when our number of trial increases, we reach an 'asymptotic sense' where we can trade with probability approaching certainty.(This was well explained in plain inglish by Mark Douglas in Trade in the Zone) Match it with calculated risk, and where and when (the trading approach or 'the Strategy') the trader decides to toss his coin, he will more often right than wrong.

The word 'often' still arbitrary in this scenario: because we also have another variables which affects the ends result, is Reward to risk ratio, which often misunderstood as only 'maximizing potential reward to potential risks'

But not many get to reach this level (they are too lazy)
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #852,214
  • Jan 31, 2025 4:27am Jan 31, 2025 4:27am
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} Well said, often the predetermined decision to push price into one direction is related to market structure. This is why we often saw currency rose on dovish Central banks members speech, or economic figure missed the expected figure, which 'should' make the currency falls. That means something bigger out there is happening, and we are uninformed of it. But the real meaning of trading was never about a trade or more precisely One trade, since no matter what the trader's edge is, nothing eliminate the risk or Probability outcome for 1 trade=...
Hi. Great post - you may even get Rob's 'post of the week!?'

I would follow it on with something I posted some time ago, but like you say most are either too lazy or can't get organised/disciplined enough to do the following;
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #852,215
  • Jan 31, 2025 4:31am Jan 31, 2025 4:31am
Quoting randu
Short 1.2422
add 1.2424 , all SL high today
  • #852,216
  • Jan 31, 2025 4:34am Jan 31, 2025 4:34am
Quoting Headland
{quote} Hi. Great post - you may even get Rob's 'post of the week!?' I would follow it on with something I posted some time ago, but like you say most are either too lazy or can't get organised/disciplined enough to do the following; {image}
Hi Headland sir,
The image is the baseline of trading.

Some people thought we always need to be 100% right to be profitable, or 1 trade didnt work, then blown account it is
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #852,217
  • Edited 1:33pm Jan 31, 2025 4:44am | Edited 1:33pm
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} Hi Headland sir, The image is the baseline of trading. Some people thought we always need to be 100% right to be profitable, or 1 trade didnt work, then blown account it is
Thanks. You mentioned the late great Mark Douglas and the stuff below is his:

The 4 Fundamental Truths of Trading:

1. Anything can happen.

2. You don’t need to know what is going to happen next to make money.

3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. (Ie; we don't know which of our individual repeating set-ups that make up our edge will produce a win or gain on any given instance that it shows itself, - all we know is that over a pre-determined sample of instances it does, (based on historical precedent,) we will realise a gain, provided we trade the edge correctly.

4. Every moment in the market is unique

Ie: Trading a proven edge correctly per it's rules is the only way to realise a consistent profit from it. Re not realising a profit from it, Mark Douglas calls the 'profit gap,' ie the difference between theoretically having a proven profitable edge, and actually realising a profit from it. The gap is often one's own psychology. The principles of consistency below deal with this.


The 7 Principles of Consistency:

1. I objectively identify my edge.

2. I predefine the risk of every trade.

3. I completely accept the risk, or I am willing to let go of the trade.

4. I act on my edge without reservation or hesitation.

5. I pay myself as the market makes money available to me.

6. I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors.

7. I understand the absolute necessity of these principles to achieve consistent success, and therefore, I never violate them.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Re what a Trading Edge is, I built on his definition to come up with my own; It is below;

A Trading Edge is a repeating circumstance or set of circumstances (ie a set-up or combination of set-ups comprised of whatsoever variables from whatsoever type [s] of analysis) that suggest a greater probability of one thing happening over another, based on historical precedent, over a large pre-determined representative empirical sample (s) size to that point in time. Additionally and/or alternatively; if the edge does not suggest a greater probability of one thing happening over another, then based on that sample (s,) it suggests that more gain is available when it succeeds than when it fails, sufficient to realize a net gain over any given future pre-determined sample; These outcomes both for as long as the repeating market behavior that gives rise to the edge stays good.

EDIT: corrected typo.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #852,218
  • Jan 31, 2025 4:51am Jan 31, 2025 4:51am
Quoting Headland
{quote} Thanks. You mentioned the late great Mark Douglas and the stuff below is his: The 4 Fundamental Truths of Trading: 1. Anything can happen. 2. You don’t need to know what is going to happen next to make money. 3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. (ie; we don't know which of our individual repeating set-ups that make up our edge will produce a win or gain - all we know is that over a sample we will realise a gain, provided we implement the edge correctly.) 4. Every moment...
One of the best book a trader can read.
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #852,219
  • Jan 31, 2025 5:18am Jan 31, 2025 5:18am
... 1hr, 2hr and probably 4hr too remain rangy as of right now.

1hr, then 4hr with 10/20/40 ema crosses graphic, below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #852,220
  • Jan 31, 2025 5:38am Jan 31, 2025 5:38am
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} One of the best book a trader can read.
Waiting for it to come out on Netflix...
450 traders viewing now, 2 are registered:
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saidi01