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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #850,881
  • Edited 7:58am Jan 17, 2025 7:34am | Edited 7:58am
Example of true 'usuality' statement.

April is 'usually 'bullish.
Only 5 bearish instances since 2001.
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What we don't know:
- is it true/deterministic seasonality
- or is it an outlier poised to mean-revert
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After making 480 years of data, as per posts:
1. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post15113261
2. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post15113379
historical data used, not synthetic.
Why doing this? Bc of smoothed distributions and more reliable statistics
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(yes, April goes first here)
Air force
  • #850,882
  • Jan 17, 2025 7:49am Jan 17, 2025 7:49am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} The trend is down although I see it might be at its end. Therefore, I fully expect price to run below the low, form a divergence before flying up with full speed.
Buddy,

What's happening at the moment in GU is strange and has not happened in the last 9 months.

It's true that the daily and 4 hour trend are bearish. The Intraday sentiment is also bearish. Unfortunately, the Price Action footprint on the chart is ranging and not bearish..

I would have expected a bearish technical trend be matched or validated with bearish price action to enable me go short.

In this case, PA footprint may still lively takeover the scene and the buyers will have it.

This scenario calls for serious caution.
Market Structure is the King.....
  • #850,883
  • Jan 17, 2025 7:55am Jan 17, 2025 7:55am
Sold Gbp/Usd @1.21830
!! Radha Radha !!
  • #850,884
  • Jan 17, 2025 7:58am Jan 17, 2025 7:58am
Quoting W0lfram
Example of true 'usuality' statement. April is 'usually 'bullish. Only 5 bearish instances since 2001. {image} What we don't know: - is it true/deterministic seasonality - or is it an outlier poised to mean-revert {image} After making 480 years of data, as per posts: 1. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post15113261 2. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post15113379 historical data used, not synthetic. {image} (yes, April goes first here)
What tools did you use?

Thanks, Mate.

Cheers!
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #850,885
  • Jan 17, 2025 8:18am Jan 17, 2025 8:18am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} What tools did you use? Thanks, Mate. Cheers!
Mostly head. Sometimes even Excel
Python and others..

Hope this helps
Air force
  • #850,886
  • Jan 17, 2025 8:20am Jan 17, 2025 8:20am
Quoting suhas316
Sold Gbp/Usd @1.21830
20+ pips now
!! Radha Radha !!
  • #850,887
  • Jan 17, 2025 8:25am Jan 17, 2025 8:25am
Quoting W0lfram
Example of true 'usuality' statement. April is 'usually 'bullish. Only 5 bearish instances since 2001. {image} What we don't know: - is it true/deterministic seasonality - or is it an outlier poised to mean-revert {image} After making 480 years of data, as per posts: 1. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post15113261 2. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post15113379 historical data used, not synthetic. Why doing this? Bc of smoothed distributions and more reliable statistics {image} (yes, April...
Great work mate. I remember how I lost heavily in Year 2018 April due to my directional bias of April being usually bullish months and i blindly followed it. That year 2018 happens to be the first year in many years that there was a bearish April.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #850,888
  • Jan 17, 2025 8:26am Jan 17, 2025 8:26am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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yes yes yes
  • #850,889
  • Jan 17, 2025 8:36am Jan 17, 2025 8:36am
Anyone know what caused the GBP to spike suddenly? 25 PiPs in 2 mins and spreads jumped to 1PiP...
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Don't you know that I'm loco ...
  • #850,890
  • Jan 17, 2025 8:40am Jan 17, 2025 8:40am
R 25
reward 31
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #850,891
  • Jan 17, 2025 8:48am Jan 17, 2025 8:48am
Quoting donfriday
R 25 reward 31 {image}

add up short 1.2192

risk 25
reward 31
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #850,892
  • Jan 17, 2025 8:51am Jan 17, 2025 8:51am
Quoting Moty
{image}
i told my self
when one of then reached the upper band . i am closing all of them
yes yes yes
before
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and after
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yes yes yes
  • #850,893
  • Jan 17, 2025 8:58am Jan 17, 2025 8:58am
let's go mister dow jonesi
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yes yes yes
  • #850,894
  • Jan 17, 2025 9:03am Jan 17, 2025 9:03am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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yes yes yes
  • #850,895
  • Jan 17, 2025 9:06am Jan 17, 2025 9:06am
lost 50 pips


done for the week..
try again next time


1 out of 1000 stones will kill a bird..
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #850,896
  • Jan 17, 2025 9:09am Jan 17, 2025 9:09am
Quoting teprewitt23
GU put options are "in the money" high probability for market makers to absorb those positions (liquidity) {image}
Are you market maker?
do you work for market maker?
How to succeed in zero sum game?
  • #850,897
  • Jan 17, 2025 9:13am Jan 17, 2025 9:13am
Quoting donfriday
lost 50 pips done for the week.. try again next time 1 out of 1000 stones will kill a bird..
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You don't have to lose. Just follow the rules.


“Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:
1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)
2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)
They happen regardless of time frame.
They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist.” - H. Rearden


Price Action #advancedalientrading

1) Price will either breakout of the high, low or both of the previous bar
2) Price will not breakout of the previous bar.
3) Price will either close above a level (line) or not.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #850,898
  • Jan 17, 2025 9:17am Jan 17, 2025 9:17am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} {image} You don't have to lose. Just follow the rules. “Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis: 1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's) 2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's) They happen regardless of time frame. They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist.” - H. Rearden Price Action #advancedalientrading 1) Price will either breakout of the high, low or both of the previous bar 2) Price will not breakout of the previous bar....
So you are saying the price goes up and down.
I think I knew that already.
  • #850,899
  • Jan 17, 2025 9:23am Jan 17, 2025 9:23am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} CABLE Scalp long for "C" or "3" {image} {image}

GU

Friday Scalp
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #850,900
  • Jan 17, 2025 9:25am Jan 17, 2025 9:25am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} EU Scalp LONG{image} {image}
EU

Friday Scalping
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
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